Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-06-14 14:17:53

Constituency Profile


Champion, Shannon

Dumaresque, Shane

Jones, Yvonne

Norman, Amy


Yvonne Jones

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



269135.61 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Yvonne Jones ** 485142.50%
Larry Flemming 354831.10%
Michelene Gray 279624.50%
Tyler Colbourne 2242.00%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Yvonne Jones ** 887871.80%
Edward Rudkowski 177914.40%
Peter Penashue 171613.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

07/09/21 Terry K
When the election was called, this seemed like a strong Liberal hold, but now I'm not so sure. The Liberals have been running a losing strategy with the ‘us vs. them’ style politics that has turned off many. This riding is not afraid to vote for the NDP provincially and we may see enough votes shift from red to orange to put the N.D.P over the top.
There is also an outside chance of the vote being split and the Conservatives walk away victorious. I think the odds of that are low and I'm calling an N.D.P flip in Labrador
19/08/21 A.S.
That Yvonne Jones would earn the lowest winning Lib share in N&L certainly isn't something many would have foreseen in '19, even if they'd been through that Peter Penashue thing before--though of course, the 1-2 punch taken from the CPC *and* NDP explains that (and Lab City/Wabush has always been an inherently fertile source for NDP votes, as provincial history proves). But it also explains her opposition-split survival. And yes, this time, Mary Simon helps.
28/07/21 Stevo
The selection of Inuktitut-speaking Mary Simon (who grew up in northern Quebec just outside Labrador) as Governor-General will push the Liberal margin back towards the 2015-style stratosphere.
13/06/21 J.F. Breton
Les candidats locaux ont souvent plus d'importance dans cette vaste circonscription nordique, ce qui explique en partie la bonne performance des néo-démocrates en 2019. Pour le moment, rien de semble vouloir s'opposer à la réélection de la candidate libérale.
11/06/21 VanIsler
Easy Liberal hold.

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