Chapman, Matthew
	Davis, Carolyn
	McDonald, Ken
	Stewart, Lainie
Incumbent:
	Kenneth McDonald

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			86494 81590 44009 34766 6457.79 km² 13.4/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Kenneth McDonald **	19122	46.30%
	Matthew Chapman	12855	31.10%
	Lea Mary Movelle	7142	17.30%
	Greg Malone	2215	5.40%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Ken McDonald	23528	55.90%
	Scott Andrews **	7501	17.80%
	Jeannie Baldwin	6075	14.40%
	Lorraine E. Barnett	4670	11.10%
	Krista Byrne-Puumala	228	0.50%
	Jennifer McCreath	84	0.20%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		13214	37.09%
		10164	28.53%
		11820	33.18%
		225	0.63%
Other		200	0.56%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Avalon    (73.03% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
St. John's East    (26.97% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	17/09/21	LD 67.215.8.18
Call me crazy for back-peddling my earlier prediction. From a distance there appears to be some anger directed at a few current NL MPs, and Ken McDonald is one of them. While it could very well just be a very vocal minority, it's certainly enough to make my head turn. There does appear to be considerable support for the Conservatives in the region, and by all accounts the CPC ground game has been good. While I don't think they flip the district, I think this will actually end up closer than I had initially thought.
	04/09/21	Terry K 65.94.101.213
This will be an easy hold for the sliding Liberals. Conservative support seems to have peaked at around 31% and it would take a major collapse in Lib support for that 31% to be enough to win. I don't think the N.D.P or Greens can pull 10-15 points away from the incumbent.
	03/09/21	LD 67.215.8.19
I think in 2019 a lot of Conservatives may have been looking to this riding as a possible spot to see if the Conservative brand was showing any signs of life post-Harper. Unfortunately for them, the race was nowhere near as close as they had hoped. Which is why I find it rather interesting that they chose to run Chapman again. Had Paul Davis won the nomination, I could see this being a much closer race, however if we’re basically redoing 2019 I can’t see how the outcome would be any different. I think Avalon is a much harder district to flip now that its current borders contain a significantly larger portion of metro St. John’s than back when it was a ‘Tory stronghold’.
	26/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
This riding is a rematch of 2019 with Ken Macdonald running for re election against conservative candidate Matthew Chapman who also ran last election. Although I suspect the cpc is regretting the fact former Newfoundland pc leader Paul Davis lost the tory nomination here with there now better national numbers if he had been candidate might of improved there chances here and given them a high profile candidate in Newfoundland. The ndp have also been slow to announce a candidate here despite the fact they posted some descent results here in the past.
	19/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Even Avalon's recent history of competitiveness is a qualified matter (i.e. Fabian Manning skewed things relative to the bigger picture). And if the Cons are recycling '19's candidate, it doesn't look like they're banking on another ‘Fabian Manning surprise’--though I don't know how many people would have expected the Libs' third *best* N&L margin here. (Might be a matter of more of that opposition vote distributing itself to the NDP and the ex-Dipper Green candidate.)
	10/08/21	Stevo 164.177.56.217
History suggests Avalon should be competitive, but that 15-point margin is likely too wide to overcome this time.
	13/06/21	J.F. Breton 38.23.227.9
L'Atlantique demeure un terreau fertile pour les Libéraux. Avalon, dans l'Est de l'île, est assurée de demeurer libérale. Avec le retrait de Harris à St.Jonh, encore moins de phénomène d'attraction du vote vers le NPD dans les circonscriptions limitrophes.
	11/06/21	VanIsler 207.194.253.26
Easy Liberal hold. The Tories missed out by not nominating former Premier Paul Davis here.