Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-06-14 14:17:35

Constituency Profile


Chapman, Matthew

Davis, Carolyn

McDonald, Ken

Stewart, Lainie


Kenneth McDonald

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



6457.79 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Kenneth McDonald ** 1912246.30%
Matthew Chapman 1285531.10%
Lea Mary Movelle 714217.30%
Greg Malone 22155.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ken McDonald 2352855.90%
Scott Andrews ** 750117.80%
Jeannie Baldwin 607514.40%
Lorraine E. Barnett 467011.10%
Krista Byrne-Puumala 2280.50%
Jennifer McCreath 840.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2000.56%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (73.03% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   St. John's East
   (26.97% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/09/21 LD
Call me crazy for back-peddling my earlier prediction. From a distance there appears to be some anger directed at a few current NL MPs, and Ken McDonald is one of them. While it could very well just be a very vocal minority, it's certainly enough to make my head turn. There does appear to be considerable support for the Conservatives in the region, and by all accounts the CPC ground game has been good. While I don't think they flip the district, I think this will actually end up closer than I had initially thought.
04/09/21 Terry K
This will be an easy hold for the sliding Liberals. Conservative support seems to have peaked at around 31% and it would take a major collapse in Lib support for that 31% to be enough to win. I don't think the N.D.P or Greens can pull 10-15 points away from the incumbent.
03/09/21 LD
I think in 2019 a lot of Conservatives may have been looking to this riding as a possible spot to see if the Conservative brand was showing any signs of life post-Harper. Unfortunately for them, the race was nowhere near as close as they had hoped. Which is why I find it rather interesting that they chose to run Chapman again. Had Paul Davis won the nomination, I could see this being a much closer race, however if we’re basically redoing 2019 I can’t see how the outcome would be any different. I think Avalon is a much harder district to flip now that its current borders contain a significantly larger portion of metro St. John’s than back when it was a ‘Tory stronghold’.
26/08/21 R.O.
This riding is a rematch of 2019 with Ken Macdonald running for re election against conservative candidate Matthew Chapman who also ran last election. Although I suspect the cpc is regretting the fact former Newfoundland pc leader Paul Davis lost the tory nomination here with there now better national numbers if he had been candidate might of improved there chances here and given them a high profile candidate in Newfoundland. The ndp have also been slow to announce a candidate here despite the fact they posted some descent results here in the past.
19/08/21 A.S.
Even Avalon's recent history of competitiveness is a qualified matter (i.e. Fabian Manning skewed things relative to the bigger picture). And if the Cons are recycling '19's candidate, it doesn't look like they're banking on another ‘Fabian Manning surprise’--though I don't know how many people would have expected the Libs' third *best* N&L margin here. (Might be a matter of more of that opposition vote distributing itself to the NDP and the ex-Dipper Green candidate.)
10/08/21 Stevo
History suggests Avalon should be competitive, but that 15-point margin is likely too wide to overcome this time.
13/06/21 J.F. Breton
L'Atlantique demeure un terreau fertile pour les Libéraux. Avalon, dans l'Est de l'île, est assurée de demeurer libérale. Avec le retrait de Harris à St.Jonh, encore moins de phénomène d'attraction du vote vers le NPD dans les circonscriptions limitrophes.
11/06/21 VanIsler
Easy Liberal hold. The Tories missed out by not nominating former Premier Paul Davis here.

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