Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:21:09

Constituency Profile


Aglukkaq, Leona

Pizzo Lyall, Megan

Qaqqaq, Mumilaaq

Roy, Douglas


Hunter Tootoo

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1877778.53 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Hunter Tootoo 561947.10%
Jack Iyerak Anawak 317126.60%
Leona Aglukkaq ** 295624.80%
Spencer Rocchi 1821.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 AR
I've heard that a lot of people have been clamouring for a young candidate in Nunavut for a few election cycles now. On the flip side, the Liberals are still popular among some aboriginal groups although they've lost support too and I'm not sure whether Trudeau's image has held up here. Issues like the handling (or mishandling) of the Nutrition North program will play a factor. Finally, the conservatives should do better than last time. What does this all mean? I say the NDP by a squeaker.
16/10/19 R.O.
Leona Aglukkaq had been mp of this riding from 2008 till 2015 , actually think her chances have improved since the start of the campaign . but first off I openly admit I’ve never been to Nunavut and this is my feel of the race. First the green numbers have held steady and ndp have actually gone up in the polls which hurt the liberals here. there is also no peoples party candidate in this riding which may or may not have an impact. secondly it was revealed in a poll by environics among indigenous voters that support for the liberals is down from 2015. Which could spell trouble in ridings like this one. Thirdly trudeau made a campaign stop in Nunavut , none of the other leaders have been to the riding as its so difficult to visit and takes an entire day to do so. He wouldn’t of came if they didn’t think the riding was close and there candidate needed extra help.
16/10/19 Physastr Master
These are always a mess to predict, especially when they're open seats... It should be noted that 338 has this as a 3-way toss-up, but I couldn't seem to find their methodology anywhere on the territories, so I have no idea whether I should believe it or not. A few things to note:
- this is a majority inuit territory, and the Trudeau liberals are faring especially badly among aboriginal groups. I suspect that demographic dynamic is probably why 338 has them close to losing here
- Since these territorial ridings represent an entire sub-national jurisdiction, they have a much more personal dynamic, and therefore care much more about person over party.
- Regarding the candidates, I have much less of an idea what to think, I think we need a local to weigh in here. Leona is well-known but controversial, and neither of the other two candidates seem to be ‘stars’ per se, they seem to be fairly new faces. However do note that one of the most significant demographic of NDP growth this election is youth, where recent polls show the NDP ahead nationally. Nunavut is *very* young relative to the national average - a median age of only 25. The NDP candidate is running a very youth-oriented campaign, which seems like a good plan here. This is one of the few places in Canada where the NDP can win off of a surge among millenials alone.
I think the indicators here point to the NDP being best positioned, but I really wish we had a local to comment here.
13/09/19 Cal
Game on. She’s young she’s connected and she’s going to win.
11/09/19 R.O.
Always a tough one to predict due to the large size of the riding and few actual voters. also been a riding that’s had a lot of different mp’s , 6 since the 1980’s , so too close to call until race starts to take shape .
01/09/19 A.S.
Leona running again is, basically, investment in the likelihood of another Conservative government. If that seems not in the cards, that means ‘no place at the table’; and ‘no place at the table’ = no real reason to vote for her, unless those running against her turn out to be total turkeys. Then again, she was third in '15 running against a Liberal-turned-New-Democrat and a New-Democrat-turned-Liberal-and-subsequently-out-of-caucus, so...
So Leona is running for the CPC here again. That should clinch Nunavut for the Liberals in Oct
30/07/20 M K
News today that Hunter Tootoo will not seek reelection. Without the wrench in the mix of an Independent incumbent, it should improve the Liberals' hopes of winning the seat once again.
Too early to tell, however, with no Liberal candidate nominated yet.
01/04/19 Sam
I had this down as a Liberal seat, but in hindsight that was premature. I have noticed that many projections have Nunavut as a Conservative gain. While I stick by what I said and still believe the Liberals are in a good position here, I would argue that the Conservative's chances have been underestimated by many, including myself. Granted, their uptick in the polls may influence the projections, but the possibility the polls are indicating is not so wild as to be ruled out.
24/02/19 Sam
The world's largest electoral district should have an interesting race, but that doesn't mean it won't be going Liberal again. Last time, even star candidate Jack Iyerak Anawak couldn't bring the NDP anywhere close, and a sitting Conservative minister came third. The Liberals still have a very good chance this time round but it should definitely be closer.
23/02/19 (Vancouver) Islander
To correct the first poster, Tootoo wasn't kicked out of the Liberals, he resigned from the party caucus to deal with alcohol issues and stayed as an independent when he returned to parliament. There doesn't appear to be any info as to whether or not he plans to run again, be it as a Liberal or an independent, but either way, this is far from an easy call. The NDP may not be a factor this time, but the Conservatives had Nunavut for two terms before the last election, even winning with almost 50% in 2011, so I'd call this one a crapshoot at this point. While I don't expect Tootoo to run as an independent, it would certainly make this race an interesting one if it happened.
This seat will be interesting if Hunter Tootoo decides to run again as an independent. He won the seat as a Liberal but was kicked out of the Liberal caucus in 2016. Even if he does decide to make a run as an independent, I still see the Liberals winning Canada's largest riding. The CPC and NDP won't be a factor here.

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