Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:20:38

Constituency Profile


Bagnell, Larry

Lemphers, Justin

Morris, Lenore

Smith, Jonas Jacot

Zelezny, Joseph


Larry Bagnell

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



474712.68 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Larry Bagnell 1088753.70%
Ryan Leef ** 492824.30%
Melissa Atkinson 394319.40%
Frank de Jong 5332.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

Will be closer than 2015 but Larry should be on top Monday night. Lots of signs for Green and NDP but I don't thing it will translate in votes. Jonas could slip by and finish first with 34% of the votes. Larry devrait finir premier lundi soir. Beaucoup d'affiche du NPD et des Verts à Whitehorse mais je ne pense pas que ça se transformera en vote. Jonas pourrait glisser entre les votes de gauches et finir premier avec 34% des votes.
19/10/19 North of Ottawa Centre
At this late stage before Monday it's fair to keep this as a Liberal predition, but is Yukon actually in play now given late shifts and margin of error?
‘The latest DataPath Systems poll conducted between Saturday and Wednesday found Liberal Larry Bagnell running at 34 percent. The NDP's Justin Lemphers and Conservative Jonas Smith were close behind at 29 and 28 percent respectively’
01/09/19 A.S.
What was interesting in 2015 was how former GPO leader Frank De Jong totally bombed as a Green candidate in a riding where the party got 19% the previous election. Right now, Bagnell seems the sort who could conceivably endure even if the Libs were reduced to 9 seats, Audrey-style--*conceivably*. Though not guaranteed, as 2011 proved...
22/03/19 Islander
2011 was a bizarre instance where all candidates on the ballot have since been elected to either provincial or federal office. (Seriously. John Streicker and Kevin Barr have both been elected to the Yukon legislature as Liberal and NDP candidates repectively, with Streicker even defeating Barr in his riding in 2016.) With the NDP and Greens having run apparently electable candidates and with the Liberals being in a meltdown, that was a perfect storm case for the Conservatives to win, as they barely gained anything. That likely isn't going to happen this time, so I'd expect the usual Liberal hold.
18/03/19 Laurence Putnam
Bagnell is a strange guy. But up in the Yukon, he's THEIR strange guy. He should win re-election without any difficulty.
02/03/19 Sam
This is definitely the safest of the territories for the Liberals - they only lost it in their 2011 disaster. Given that Larry Bagnell, generally a great fit for the riding, is running again, it's hard to see the Liberals losing given the fact they are doing far better than in 2011.
Yukon is definitely the safest Liberal seat from the 3 northern territories. Even with the 2011 blowout, Larry Bagnell only lost his seat by just over 100 votes. In 2015 he reclaimed it by almost 6,000 votes. Easy Liberal hold here.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster