Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:11:21

Constituency Profile


Caron, Richard

Collins, Laurel

Culbert, Alyson

Duncan, Robert

Kooy, Racelle

Macdonald, Nikki

Reichert, Jordan

Rosenberg, Keith

Shebib, David


Murray Rankin

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



40.28 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Murray Rankin ** 3039742.30%
Jo-Ann Roberts 2366632.90%
Cheryl Thomas 848911.80%
John Rizzuti 848011.80%
Art Lowe 5390.70%
Jordan Reichert 2000.30%
Saul Andersen 1240.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
This seat might have went green but the ndp's surge will get them to hold on here.
20/10/19 tommy
Yes, I would say the tide has turned - bigger crowds at rallies - higher sign count of late on neighbourhood streets - significantly more press and presence for candidate - the ‘singh’ effect pulling the vote up - all point to the riding staying orange
19/10/19 Manny Toba
Momentum is with the NDP. Think their rally will be enough to permit them to hold the seat.
19/10/19 Physastr Master
I really don't get this call. It's clear based on posts on this page that the NDP have the stronger candidate, and 338 has this being led by the NDP by a 7 point margin. What on earth is the argument that this should be in the green column? At this point, forget making it TCTC, this looks like an NDP lock.
16/10/19 South Islander
This riding is TCTC. The Greens have dropped and the NDP have risen substantially over the past 10 days. The headlines indicating that the CPC have a chance of winning a plurality (or a CPC-Bloc combined majority) also creates a real possibility that strategic centre-left voters could move to the LPC to prevent Scheer from getting that plurality. My sense is that this riding has always been a 3-way race and that, unless there is an NDP or LPC surge in the final days of the election, it may be too close to call until the last ballots are counted.
16/10/19 Sam
It would seem as if we're going against the grain based on the narrative, but I think an NDP win here is now the most likely option - as the other posters have said, Singh has got his mojo back and it's helping the NDP, particularly in BC. I didn't think it as important as has been made out, but the Green candidacy never really took off here - it was more so a good uptick for the Greens. Now, with the NDP gaining from them and the Liberals, who do have a bigger presence here than would appear, it should form a good combination for a victory.
14/10/19 Stevo
The Greens peaked too soon and, combined with a resurgent NDP, will have a very difficult time building on the two seats they already hold. At this point I believe the NDP will take Victoria by a very slim margin. Fredericton may actually be a better bet for the Greens given a much weaker NDP in New Brunswick.
12/10/19 Bo
At the start of the campaign, it looked as though the NDP would be struggling to fend of the Greens in national polling, but Singh's started to put some distance between the NDP and the Greens with his performance in the distances and overall visibility in the campaign. As the NDP rises nationally and the Greens tick down, I think the NDP will fend off the Greens in Victoria, at least for one more election..
11/10/19 Eddie E.
The only safe Green seat is Saanich. Victoria, Esquimalt and Nanaimo should all be too close to call races between a slowly rising NDP and the typically falling Greens. Singh helped himself in the debates...May did not. Greens could possibly pull out a 2nd seat on the lsland (probably Nanaimo where they have the incumbency advantage), but don't expect much more than what they currently have. Wlll be a disappointing election night for the Greens.
09/10/19 Physastr Master
Yes, if any new riding turns Green, it will be this one (or maybe Fredricton, Guelph, and Charlottetown). That said, the trendlines are pretty anti-Green in BC right now, and 338 now has this as an NDP-Green dead heat. That is in light of the NDP jumping from 18 to 20 in the province, and Greens dropping from 18 to 14 in the last two days alone. The NDP Candidate is also clearly better known than the Green candidate, which won't improve things. Regardless, in light of changing tides, this should return to the TCTC column
07/10/19 Tommy
Not seeing many recent posts here, but I am seeing more and more Laurel Collins signs these days on the streets. Frankly the Green candidate has zero visibility and while a lot of wishful thinking by enthusiastic supporters abounds, when people go and vote i expect the NDP will hold the riding - albeit with a smaller margin.
18/09/19 South Island Voter
If any riding will turn Green it is this one. With no incumbent, Green's doing better in the polls and with a strong campaign, I can see the Greens taking this by 5-10%. In my opinion this riding is easier to pick up for the Greens than the other south Island ridings (exception being SGI).
12/09/19 Innocent Bystander
Too close to call, but not NDP; the party's nosedive in the polls, combined with the retirement of the sitting MP puts Victoria out of reach.
This is the Liberals best shot to hold up the Green wave washing over the Island.
11/09/19 Laurence Putnam
Apologies for my third submission here but I really do sense the tide is shifting here. In my first prediction I said it was 50/50 leaning green. I said much more of the same on the second submission. I now believe this is moving more and more firmly into the Green camp.
A lot of Dippers may be in denial, but I have a sense that what's bearing down on the NDP is a disaster much greater than previously imagined just weeks ago. The Greens are gunning hard at this and the momentum is with them.
The NDP will be lucky to get out of this election with official party status. They aren't polling above 20% in any region in the country. They have no reasonable prospects in Atlantic Canada and only 1-2 possible prospects left in Quebec. The Liberal lead is so great in Toronto I think they will be shut out there too. So in Ontario they're down to a handful of seats in the North, the Southwest and Hamilton areas. Even party stalwart Sid Ryan is out of the Oshawa race, making that not a race at all. They should hopefully keep Ashton's seat in Manitoba. Going West from there, their prospects are very sullen all the way to the Pacific Ocean, with the possible exception of Edmonton Strathcona, which I think will fall also.
The ultimate backstop for the NDP, Vancouver Island, has taken a new lover as well. Even ridings like Vancouver East and Kingsway, while still favoured for the NDP, are looking like they will be modest-by-comparison wins in the mid-high 40's rather than 60-70% blowout numbers we've seen in the past.
I have never in my life supported the NDP but even I think they deserve better than this; it's important for democracy for heavens sake. They're now in full blown survival mode, with their worst outcome being probably another Audrey McLaughlin style election while their best case scenario is the Joe Clark 2000 scenario, barely clinging to party status.
Victoria is riding the Green wave now.
29/08/19 A.S.
I'd be guarded about that close-race poll, especially if it's more about generic party preferences than something more locally campaign/candidate-specific. And when it comes to the Liberal winning record in recent times under David Anderson, a lot of that really had to do with how Victoria was a little too "urban" for the Reform/Alliance juggernaut and with the NDP still finding its sea legs after the Audrey collapse. Though it's certainly possible that second-term "Justin imperialism" could be as efficient in stealing Green votes as Anderson-era Liberal imperialism was at stealing NDP and Red Tory votes; and the "urbanism" that helped Anderson then could well help the Libs now, even over the Laurel Collins-boosted NDP--for all we know, this could wind up being for the Vancouver Island Greens in 2019 what Westmount-Ville Marie was for the Montreal NPD in 2011: previously the second likeliest pickup, but now the "one that gets away" while most everything else gets swallowed up...
23/08/20 South Islander
This riding is a three-way race (with lots of undecideds) and should be too close to call: https://ipolitics.ca/2019/08/15/liberals-greens-in-statistical-tie-in-victoria-says-mainstreet-poll/?fbclid=IwAR2JYDMENRrlvPtt2rgW5C0GcBua2HdpUhzzRzRsR5t_jLokE8rEqQofpy8
It is easy to dismiss this poll as an outlier based on the 2008-2015 results (including the byelection in which the LPC placed 4th). However, last election was an anomaly because the candidate suspended her campaign. Even so, the LPC still finished ahead of the Tories, and the strong LPC results in Esquimalt and Langford revealed a lot of strength for the LPC on the South Island. It is unknown who benefited from the LPC candidate's withdrawal, and unknown whether those voters will go LPC this time. The LPC has also ultimately won this riding in all recent elections that the LPC won overall (other than 2015), even winning here when they lost BC by as much as 21% in 2000. Given that the LPC are contending for first place federally and in BC according to recent polls, it shouldn't be hard to believe that they are competitive here.
The Green prediction here seems to be based on the assumption that the recent uptick in Green vote is disproportionately based on the South Island. But the Greens and NDP are both fighting over the same pool of anti-Trans Mountain voters in a province that actually supports the pipeline overall (and at 60/29, it isn't even close), including 60% on the Island. I have spoken to many pipeline expansion opponents who simply cannot believe that this is true, but I suspect that this is likely because the opponents are much more vocal and visible. I have seen no actual evidence that pipeline opposition in Victoria actually exceeds support. I acknowledge that it could be distributed very similarly to supporters of electoral reform in the 2018 referendum (Despite opposition for PR exceeding support by 23% BC-wide, support exceeded opposition in the north half of the City of Vancouver, Sunshine Coast, Greater Victoria, New West and the West Kootenays), but even in that case, views on the pipeline issue in Greater Victoria may still only be about 50/50, with opponents simply being far more vocal than supporters.
The recently-nominated LPC candidate Nikki MacDonald worked for Ocean Networks Canada and has a PhD. She will be able to speak with real authority on the pipeline issue. Green and NDP are running first-time federal candidates with less experience than Rankin, Savoie, Roberts, or Galloway.
If the national conversation turns to a referendum on the Trudeau Liberals with Scheer's Tories as the only viable alternative, or if the people of Victoria decide they want to be represented in government, the LPC has a good shot. The only recent poll in the riding confirms that this.
I also wouldn't discount the NDP's chances. This site predicted a Green win here last time, but it wasn't even close. NDP vote share went down, but much of this was due to increased turnout for other parties still unable to overcome their stable 30,000-vote total (many of whom might have intended to vote LPC before the candidate's withdrawal). Collins has spent less than a year on City Council, but ultimately won election fairly recently and will have the South Island NDP organization behind her.
22/08/20 Islander
(Just as a side note, I am not the same "Islander" with the NDP-favouring prediction below. The prediction made in March by "Islander" is mine, however. I'm considering changing my tag since there's like 4 other people with "Islander" in their name on this site now, and I wasn't the first.)
I'm firmly sticking with my guns on this one. Yes, my doppelgänger appears to be right about the Green candidate being unusually low-profile, but Laurel Collins isn't particularly high-profile either and I'd argue that the personal popularity of candidates is not going to be the main factor here. What gives the Greens a significant edge is that Elizabeth May is almost definitely going to have a far greater presence here than Jagmeet will during the campaign, which is what people will be paying attention to. It's also worth pointing out that the NDP spent almost $75,000 more than the Greens did in 2015 just to keep Rankin in, and they won't have that this time. Adding to this with the fact that the Greens are almost tied with the NDP in federal polls right now, and with southern Vancouver Island essentially being THE PLACE that the Greens do well I see little reason to believe that the NDP still have some sort of advantage here.
12/08/20 Islander
Going to make a bold prediction and say that Victoria will remain with the NDP.
Incumbent NDP MP Murray Rankin, who is retiring, was a popular figure who was able to fend off two very capable Green candidates in the 2012 by-election and the 2015 federal election. His replacement for the NDP, Laurel Collins, is relatively unknown although her time on Victoria City Council has made her an able "retail" politician who knows how to answer to voters concerns, even if her policy-chops aren't as strong as Rankin's. Her outreach to students and other young people in this university town, along with outreach to the growing number of New Canadians, will also benefit her.
The Greens have made a surprisingly weak choice, Racelle Kooy. Ms. Kooy seems to have little connection to the riding, which is damaging in any case, but especially damaging in a well-educated, active community like Victoria. After two great candidates (Donald Galloway, a UVic law professor a world-known refugee advocate in 2012, and JoAnne Roberts, a CBC journalist in 2015) it seems as though the Greens have stripped the bottom of the barrel.
The Liberals have not yet selected a candidate, but I have heard rumours that it will not be a particularly well-known individual.
The Tories are running a paper candidate. This will likely be one of their worst results in Canada.
I see Green support being relatively stable and not moving dramatically, while many NDP supporters will stay home rather than vote Green. The Liberals will grow the most since in 2015 their candidate withdrew and many of their supporters stayed home or voted for Rankin.
I expect the result to be something like:
NDP: 26,200 34.3% [-8.0%]
GPC: 25,500 33.4% [+0.5%]
LPC: 13,150 17.2% [+5.4%]
CPC: 10,500 13.8% [+2.0%]
Other: 1,000 1.3% [+0.1%]
20/06/19 J.F. Breton
With the federal authorization of the Trans Mountain pipeline, I put this riding in the Green Party column. The latest polls place Greens over 20% in British Columbia.
09/05/19 Dr Bear
Really I think it is TCTC at the moment, but certainly leaning Green. The byelection in Nanaimo-Ladysmith was telling: both the Liberals and the NDP have lost significant support on Vancouver Island, while the Conservatives are more or less stable. And, with incumbent Murray Rankin not re-offering, the incumbent advantage will not be there. True, the Greens don't have the name recognition this time that Jo-Ann Roberts brought, which is why I am saying it is only leaning Green.
07/05/19 Lifelong GV Resident
If most of us didn't think Victoria was going to Green before, I think most of us will acknowledge that it probably will now. Importantly, the general public in Victoria will now likely think it will go Green, so there will be a drastically reduced risk of strategic voting here. Going into the last election, there were those that thought NDP candidates might end up being cabinet ministers, or opposition critics at worst. Now, the public will recognize that whether you elect a Green or an NDP you're electing a backbencher either way, so there's nothing to choose from on that score. Heck, they might have similarly sized caucuses when all is said and done (using current polling, to say nothing of the possibility of the Greens getting a bump in the polls from this, the CBC Poll Tracker suggests the Greens on a good night could have as many as 12 seats and that the NDP on a bad night could have as few as 9... so it's at least within the realm of possibility). The recent trend has been steady growth for Greens. BC Greens over the last three provincial elections have gone from 0 to 1 to 3. The New Brunswick Greens have also gone from 0 to 1 to 3. The PEI Greens went from 1 to 2 to 9 (with that bump to ‘2’ also coming in a by-election). The federal Liberals did unusually well in BC in 2015, but with Trudeaumania 2.0 waning many of those votes will be back in play in October, and the the Nanaimo by-election suggests the Greens are well placed to capitalize.
07/05/19 Marco Ricci
With the Green win in the by-election in Nanaimo-Ladysmith tonight, the Greens now have an increased chance of picking up Victoria. Like Nanaimo-Ladysmith, it has no incumbent and the Greens had a stronger result here in 2015 than they did in Nanaimo-Ladysmith.
09/04/19 seasaw
I think this one is going to be a battle Royale between the NDP and the Greens. At the end of the day though, NDP will prevail, it may be very close 3 digit or may even be a 2 digit victory, but NDP will keep this
08/04/19 Laurence Putnam
I have previously predicted Green although if you read my original comment I said it's 50/50. I still believe this to be true but wanted to weigh in a friendly counterpoint to the previous post. While I recognize the value of the research in Kyle H's extrapolation of the data pertaining to the three provincial ridings, I must disagree with the conclusion that those results serve as a harbinger to the upcoming federal result.
Past results do not indicate future success, and while yes, the Weaver vote is high in Oak Bay-Gordon Head, you've conveniently left out that the NDP incumbents in the two other ridings are of extremely high profiles as well, one being the former leader. In fact, I'd probably argue that Carole James' profile is even higher than Weaver's. So you could argue that all three incumbents are running up the numbers in their respective ridings (Fleming the least so, but even still...) the fact that the Greens could muster 38% in the Greater Victoria area - in an election the NDP ultimately (sorta) won - should be keeping New Democrats up at night rather than serve as any comfort.
The Federal NDP rarely does as well as its' provincial counterparts (though the same is true for the Greens) and all indications are that we're about to see the least inspired and certainly least well financed federal NDP campaign since the 2000 election, without an incumbent in this riding to boot.
Don't get me wrong the Dippers are absolutely in the running for this; they certainly could pull it off and given their history in the riding and the GOTV machine they must surely have, they should even have the organizational advantage. Yeah...popular city councillor and all that...but how many times did Judy Higginbotham lose, or in my hometown of North Van Craig Keating or Mike Little...the list goes on and on. Sometimes that popularity translates. Sometimes it doesn't.
The march towards the Green Party on the South Island - federally and provincially, in the last decade or so, cannot be ignored. They smell blood here and will run the kind of underdog campaign that gets people excited. That might be enough; particularly if they can additionally attract the support of some Liberals and Conservatives who know that their own candidates are a lost cause.
It's 50/50....with a notional edge to the Greens.
06/04/19 Kyle H
I'm going to be the fun contrarian here and lay out why the Greens are not, in fact, favoured to win this, and why it should remain as TCTC (despite the orange leaf next to my submission - I did that for attention).
Why? Go look at the 2017 results among the three ridings that basically make up the city provincially - Victoria-Swan Lake, Victoria-Beacon Hill, and Oak Bay-Gordon Head. The result between them was 43% NDP to 38% Green - and that was with the benefit of record-low BC Liberal numbers in the ridings, and the 29-point margin of Andrew Weaver in OB-GH.
Rankin's retirement is a problem, yes, but the favoured NDP candidate (Laurel Collins) is a sitting city councillor from Victoria proper, while the Green candidate is an unknown. Victoria powered Rankin's victory in 2015 - the Greens will need a heckuva swing, one larger than current polling averages, to get a win. That's without even taking into account the fact that the CPC are also on an upswing and the Liberals won't have a nutter as a candidate again (probably), and that's where the Greens mostly padded their 2015 result from.
I say TCTC!
02/04/19 Lifelong GV Resident
As others have said, this will be hard fought. But it will be hard fought between the Greens and NDP. The Conservatives/Canadian Alliance/Reform Party have never won here even in their ‘wave’ years across BC (not even in the year 2000 election when the Canadian Alliance won 79% of the seats in BC were they able to win Victoria). Similarly, if the Liberals weren't able to win Victoria in their wave year of 2015 (when they won more seats in BC than they had in generations) then there's little chance that they'll win here in 2019 with some of the bloom being off the Trudeau rose. So I think we're probably all agreed that this seat will be either NDP or Green when the dust settles. And I give the edge to the Greens because of the general decline in NDP fortunes since 2015, and the rise in Green fortunes in that same time. The CBC Polltracker (as of this writing) shows the federal NDP polling 18% lower in BC support and the federal Greens polling 52% higher in BC vs. the 2015 election. Campaigns matter, but with that history and those numbers, right now it's the Greens' to lose.
31/03/19 mrpredictor
This election will be close but I believe with the incumbency advantage out of the picture it should be a Green pick-up.
31/03/19 Sam
Sure, the Greens will need to fight to win this, but they will. The effect of a retirement boosts the Greens more than the other parties, and if their momentum keeps going as expected, they'll take this. Although I wouldn't rule out an NDP hold completely, when you combine the major factors it seems as if a Green gain is the by far the most likely result.
24/03/19 Lolitha
No NDP incumbent, Elizabeth May next door and you can be sure the Greens will target this riding as it is probably their best chance for a gain. I visited Victoria in January and got an unsolicited earful about Notley and pipelines so it seems the environment is top of mind ;)
23/03/19 Richmondite
I'm seeing an eagerness by some to call this immediately for the Greens and although there is potential for the Greens to *finally* capture this seat they desperately wanted in the past, I'm not certain that this is be a sure thing just yet. The NDP will still remain a strong contender with the nomination of an incumbent city councillor. While the riding will be advantageous to the Greens geographically because it consists most of Oak Bay-Gordon Head, the provincial seat of BC Green leader Andrew Weaver, TCTC is the right call at this point.
22/03/19 Islander
The Greens are polling at around 10% nationally right now. The NDP has only consistently won this since 2006, with elections since then (except 2015) being bad years for the Liberals. With Rankin gone, I don't see the Greens not winning this, unless their support tapers off or the NDP runs a particularly good candidate.
16/03/19 Laurence Putnam
Don't get me wrong....the Greens don't have it locked; there are after all lots of government union folks, left wing academics, etc. who are dyed-in-the-wool NDP...they are absolutely competitive, in fact it's at least 50/50. However, being an open seat, given the provincial Green breakthrough on the Southern part of the Island in 2017, and given how few resources the NDP will have to campaign with this year with a lacklustre leader, everything that is needed to flip this to the Green Party is in place. This is one of those ridings where 'campaigns matter'.
One thing is for sure; the governing party and official opposition, whoever they turn out to be, will come third and fourth in this riding. Could be the only riding in Canada where that happens.
13/03/19 Stevo
Would be funny if the city notorious for dumping raw, untreated sewage directly into the Pacific were to elect a Green MP. Just the kind of dissonant politics we've come to expect in coastal BC. At this point I'd say the Greens likely take Victoria.
04/03/19 ME
A Green pick up after Rankin does not stand for re-election at age 69
28/02/19 Marco Ricci
Murray Rankin announced his retirement today. This seat is now winnable for the Greens. Will Elizabeth May get that 2nd seat she's been waiting for?
02/03/19 Raven
Point of Information: Murray Rankin has announced that he will not seek re-election.
With all things being equal, and no surprises or star candidates, this riding has a high likelihood of going green.
27/02/19 Craig
Green seat #2 should be Victoria. The NDP are down, and that alone should benefit the strongest (locally) non-Conservative party on the ballot, given the highly educated nature and large government workforce here. The Conservatives definitely won't be a factor here, and the Liberals have taken a hit with the pipeline buyout (which seems to benefit nobody politically). Also there are Green seats here provincially and they will likely join in to help out.
23/02/19 Marco Ricci
I think it's too soon to predict that this riding will 'easily' go Green if NDP MP Murray Rankin retires. In 2015, the Greens spent major resources & time in this riding, and they still finished 10 points behind. Perhaps it will be easier for the Greens to win if they don't have to compete against an incumbent if Rankin retires, but so far we don't know if they can cross the finish line.
18/02/19 JW
If Murray Rankin does indeed retire (likely... it is rather unusual for a sitting MP to muse openly about not running again prior to an actual announcement), this riding will easily become the second riding to return a Green MP.

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