Election Prediction Project

Vancouver South
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:11:39

Constituency Profile


Deng, Alain

McQuillan, Sean

Sajjan, Harjit S.

Young, Wai

Zaichkowsky, Judy


Harjit S. Sajjan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



20.70 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Harjit S. Sajjan 2177348.80%
Wai Young ** 1511533.90%
Amandeep Nijjar 623014.00%
Elain Ng 11492.60%
Charles Boylan 1780.40%
Raj Gupta 1660.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2020.55%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Vancouver South
   (95.6% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Vancouver Kingsway
   (4.4% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

14/10/19 Nick M.
All comes down to Sajjan‘s personal popularity.
This riding can’t be won on the Liberal name. If the Liberals didn’t have incumbency, I’d say it’s edge goes to CPC.
07/10/19 R.O.
Little has been mentioned on the rematch between Harjit Sajjan and Wai Young. The liberal incumbent is a high profile cabinet minister in Ottawa. His opponent Wai Young was briefly mp for this riding from 2011-2015 after a surprise victory in 2011. One has to wonder about the green vote in many of these ridings , they only got 2% in 2015 but surely do better this year.
17/09/19 A.S.
If the swing was more shallow here than in other Greater Vancouver ridings in 2015, it was due to (a) the Cons holding more ground with the Chinese-Canadian populace than with other demos (also reflected in the Richmond Centre hold), and (b) there actually having been a Liberal incumbent to dislodge in 2011, which led to a Conservative incumbent to dislodge in 2015. (In fact, Vancouver South was 2011's only CPC defeat of a LPC incumbent in BC.) And when it comes to 2019's rematch, Wai Young's chances aren't exactly enhanced by her odd Coalition Vancouver mayoral run last year...
19/04/19 Richmondite
There is no question that Harjit Sajjan is popular in the area and has a cabinet profile that will give him a good advantage over the Conservatives. However I wouldn't consider this riding as safe Liberal, as this riding, along with its provincial counterpart of Vancouver-Fraserview, have gained a reputation for being the typical bellwether riding.
Keep in mind that the Liberals won this in 2015 with a mild NDP and Conservative swing that resulted in a 15% boost to the Liberals. That is not the 20+% red tide that other Metro Vancouver ridings experienced in 2015. With the NDP vote nearly tapped out in 2015, the Liberals may have already exhausted the progressive left-wing vote. Given the recent national trend of declining Liberal support, it would bean uphill to hold its current vote share from 2015, let alone scooping more votes from the Tory voter base in this bellwether riding. At this point, a fair assessment would be TCTC.
26/03/19 Laurence Putnam
I agree with Lunn on this one; best shot in town for the Tories, but one they most likely won't hit on this time. High profile cab min is safe for now.
16/03/19 Sam
A bellwether; if the Conservatives win a majority or close to it, they will have almost certainly won this. Harjit Sajjan has a high profile but that may not be enough on a good night. There's still a good chance of this going Liberal, however.
23/02/19 M. Lunn
If the Tories were to win a riding in Vancouver proper, it would be this one, but at this point I think they would need a much bigger lead in the polls to be competitive here so for now calling it for the Grits. If the Tories open a sizeable lead, I may change my prediction.

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