Election Prediction Project

Vancouver Quadra
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:11:30

Constituency Profile


Dixon, Kathleen

Erhardt, Austen

Filosof-Schipper, Sandra

Kenny, Leigh

Murray, Joyce

Wright, Geoff


Joyce Murray

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



40.34 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Joyce Murray ** 3110258.70%
Blair Lockhart 1368325.80%
Scott Andrews 574810.90%
Kris Constable 22294.20%
Trevor Clinton Walper 860.20%
Marc Boyer 650.10%
Jean-François Caron 590.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Vancouver Quadra
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Quadra's been Liberal for yrs. but there is a base for the Conservatives to win. It won't change tomorrow.
22/09/19 R.O.
Longtime liberal riding , likely stay liberal . although the wildcard in a lot of these ridings is the green vote and how many people really go green this year especially in BC.
17/09/19 A.S.
Well, contrary to seasaw's deader-than-dead claim, I reckon the Bernier say-no-to-mass-immigration billboard foofaraw has probably done more to *fortify* the Liberals among the so-called ‘educated’ crowd. But it's more than a matter of education; it's also a matter of culture--and Quadra, with UBC and all, is probably the most ‘Laurentian elite’ riding in Western Canada. A demographic--sort of like the 2011 Iggy rump--which is increasingly superfluous to the needs of Conservative strategists. Sure, educated voters in Quadra *can* still go for the Con option--a quarter of the vote did so in '15. But the odds are ever-more stacked against their actually winning; the most you might get are big-tent entities like the BC Liberals or the municipal NPA (or Mayor John Tory in Toronto). Sure, there may be a lack of party loyalty...until other parties induce it by default. And that's how federal Liberal permanence came to be in Quadra.
02/08/20 seasaw
@Craig, educated voters and Liberal support, really? Obviously you're looking at polls that give the Liberals a double digit lead, but that's among the decided, over 60% of us with post graduate degrees haven't even made up our minds and probably won't till the last couple of weeks. This demographic is the hardest one to predict, because there's hardly any party loyalty in our demographic. Also, if immigration were to become an election issue, the Liberals are going to be deader than dead. Most educated voters look at everyone's platforms, look at all issues and then they make up their minds. In case, they're not impressed with any, they either go with the least of all evils, or they go with the best person in the riding and that's where the Liberals have the huge advantage, don't live in this riding but have many friends and relatives who do, and sure Joyce may be a little whacky, but she's an excellent constituency person. This, coupled with the fact that Quadra has consistently sent a Liberal to Ottawa, is enough for them to hold on to the riding.
30/05/19 Sam
This is an affluent, educated and metropolitan riding, and easily the Liberals' best seat in BC, and no other party will target this. Even if they plummet, the swing could be smaller here, and they should poll well enough to hold this. Not really much else to it.
03/04/19 Craig
Re: educated voters and Liberal support, in this day and age their single best demographic (federally and in most provinces) is with voters with post-graduate degrees. That is the predominant demographic in Quadra, more than almost anywhere in Canada. That said, the NDP have made occasional gains with them in Liberal collapses (David Eby and 2018 Ontario) due to their hatred of right-populism, but there is no evidence that the NDP (or Greens) is suddenly soaring over the Liberals federally yet.
It's hard to believe the Conservatives nearly picked this up in 2008 in a by-election as I can't see them improving at all here in this era. There is a strong pro-business mindset here but once you throw immigration or cultural populism on the table, this becomes a death zone for them. Unless the Liberal support implodes nationally, Joyce Murray is definitely coming back to Parliament.
26/03/19 Laurence Putnam
While I certainly take umbrage at the previous suggestion that one must be ‘educated’ to vote for someone like Trudeau, who possesses all the intellect of a bag of hammers, I certainly can't argue with the conclusion. Safely Liberal since 1984, Vancouver Quadra can be safely relied upon to stay in the Liberal column even as it did in the near extinction of the federal Liberals in '84 and '11.
03/03/19 MF
Quadra is basically the St. Paul's of Vancouver. Too educated to vote Tory, too bourgeois to vote NDP.
18/02/19 JW
As has been noted in previous election pages, Quadra is the only riding west of Ontario that has consistently elected Liberal MPs since the 80s. The Conservatives has made a number of serious bids to target the riding, almost succeeding in the 2008 byelection. However, the resilient presence of progressive voters in the riding (as evident by the election of NDP Attorney General David Eby) will likely give Joyce Murray an edge again.

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