Election Prediction Project

Vancouver Centre
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:10:59

Constituency Profile


Bowman, Lily

Brown, Jesse

Cavey, David

Clarke, John

Fry, Hedy

Kierans, Louise

Ouellette, Breen

Popat, Imtiaz


Hedy Fry

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



11.13 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Hedy Fry ** 3255456.10%
Constance Barnes 1161820.00%
Elaine Allan 981816.90%
Lisa Barrett 33705.80%
John Clarke 6141.10%
Michael Hill 740.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 6221.50%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Vancouver Centre
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

08/10/19 Marco Ricci
Yes, Hedy Fry is now the longest-serving woman MP in Parliament. One of the reasons she is reported to have so much success here is because she is a good constituency MP, and is known as responsive to the concerns of Vancouver's gay community. A.S. pointed out below that Fry had a larger than usual win in 2015. Like the other Liberals in B.C., it was probably a bonus bump as a result of Trudeau's ‘grandson of B.C.’ advantage which gave the Liberals their first #1 showing in B.C. since 1968.
28/09/19 SG
Yep, another exciting race in Vancouver Centre - for second place. This lady will probably stay in Parliament till she's 100 years old and expires at her Commons desk.
22/09/19 R.O.
Current mp Hedy Fry will likely hold the riding but one has to wonder how the Green party will do in ridings like this one , surely do better than 2015 .
12/09/19 Seth
Fry will win again of course. The real race in this riding is for 2nd place.
Lib 40%
Green 20%
NDP 20%
Con 20%
20/08/20 A.S.
Actually, Hedy Fry's 2015 result was a little freakish--she's been durable for sure, but that was "Taras Natyshak Essex 2014" laughing-gas territory. So I'll predict an all-but-certain comedown for her (not defeat, but comedown)...and, this being BC and all, an excellent likelihood of the Greens in second. (Well, remember how well Adriane Carr did here in the past.)
18/08/20 MF
Another EPP go around, another round of comments about Hedy Fry's crosses burning remark from two decades ago, another victory for Hedy Fry. Van Centre is the second safest riding for the Liberals in Western Canada after Quadra.
24/06/19 Laurence Putnam
Oh, please - seesaw, it is NOT just the Burning Crosses remark! That's been the standout moment of her career but don't pretend there have not been others. Her admission to falsifying perscriptions as a Doctor ought to have been enough to realize she is a person of dubious character. Her ongoing assertions over the years that anyone even slightly to the right of the Liberal party is an intolerant bigot are obviously untrue but have been so oft-repeated as to become tiresome.
I'm not changing my prediction though, despite all that, she will win. To give her credit, she works the constituency feverishly. One time I spotted her at the opening of a new clothing store in Yaletown; there were only about 10 people there, but front and centre was the local MP. That's why she wins.
04/06/19 seasaw
Let's not knock Heddy Frye, sure, people only remember her by her rediculous comments made over 20 years ago, but over the years she's been a hard working MP and has gained the respect of members from both sides of the house. She may not be in Trudeau's inner circle, nor is she in his top 40 list, but she's a good MP and will be re-elected
27/04/19 Sam
Whilst I too am not sure what the appeal of Hedy Fry is, there's clearly a good reason for it as she defies the odds repeatedly. She'll win for sure.
01/04/19 Craig
No one else in Parliament can claim they have beaten a sitting Prime Minister. The NDP and Conservatives often put up star candidates here (to no avail), but Hedy Fry should cruise to a 9th term in office.
This is naturally Liberal with a large creative class demographic and a very multicultural population - think of this as Vancouver's version of Spadina-Fort York. Condo towers continue to go up and each one has more and more Liberal voters than anything else. The Conservatives are loathed among yuppies especially in this era of right-populism and immigration debates, while this is too affluent for the NDP in all but a total landslide. No matter what happens nationally or elsewhere, this seat stays red.
18/03/19 Laurence Putnam
Though I cannot fathom why, Hedy Fry's Vancouver Centre is impenetrable. Look at the lengthy list ‘star candidates’ she has defeated in her wake; including of course a former Prime Minister. Chances are she sheds 10 points or so this go around, but no question she'll win easily.
25/02/19 Stevo
Hedy Fry, of imaginary cross-burning fame, has been largely silent for many years. Perhaps that's the key to her enduring success here - out of sight, out of mind, and a whole generation of voters who aren't old enough to remember her outburts from the 90s.
20/02/19 Islander
Hedy Fry has held this seat for 25 years and consistently wins with decent margins. With the Liberals still polling relatively well, I don't think there's any reason to believe she'll be anywhere close to losing Vancouver Centre.
19/02/19 seasaw
This has been a safe Liberal seat for a quarter of a century. For the Tories to win here, it would require a major NDP surge, plus a total Liberal meltdown. Even then, it's not guaranteed, remember, the seat stayed Liberal in 2011. Can't see either of the above happening. Liberal hold

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