Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:10:54

Constituency Profile


Dhaliwal, Sukh

Gill, Harjit Singh

Khehra, Rabaab

Singh, Harpreet

Verchère, Holly


Sukh Dhaliwal

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



30.04 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Sukh Dhaliwal 2486956.00%
Jinny Sims ** 1160226.10%
Harpreet Singh 697815.70%
Pamela Sangha 9752.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1990.61%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Newton-North Delta
   (67.09% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Fleetwood-Port Kells
   (27.04% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Surrey North
   (5.87% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Physastr Master
This really comes down to whether Singh can convince Sikh communities to jump ship from the Liberals. The NDP *can* do well among these groups and have in the past, so it isn't crazy, but for there to be a win here, it has to be a major political earthquake. Do I think Sikh communities here would be excited at the chance of electing Jagmeet Singh as prime minister? Absolutely, he's extremely popular among these groups. Will that be enough to win this riding? I have no idea. Regardless, I think this has the chance to be one of the biggest upsets on election day.
09/09/19 A.S.
Four years after Dhaliwal vanquished Jinny Sims, the main thing that could possibly threaten his hold on the riding is the ethno-political spectre of another Indo-Canadian New Democrat initialed J.S. (and no, not Jasbir Sandhu). Except that the Dhaliwal machine been extraordinarily against-the-grain resilient, winning in the awful Lib year of 2008, nearly holding on in the even worse year of 2011--but he never had to confront a *party leader* of similar origin; except that said party leader so far isn't doing so hot. On those grounds, safety says Liberal; but who knows in the end, it could be like Alexa in Nova Scotia all over again...
25/03/19 Richmondite
This is likely a Liberal hold. The incumbent MP is very well established in the riding and has deep pockets that will certainly present challenge to other parties wishing to unseat him. The NDP may have striking chance to compete if they perform substantively better than their current poll numbers, but that seems unlikely at this point.
27/02/19 Sam
For the Liberals, this is their strongest BC riding outside Vancouver, and it suits them demographically. Although this went NDP in 2011, this appeared to be a one-off given the fact the longtime Liberal Sukh Dhaliwal won a majority of votes. He is running for re-election. The NDP are in a position to challenge, but it would take a lot to win, and so they may focus outside resources on more contested ridings in the area. A Liberal loss is not impossible, but it is hard to imagine.

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