Election Prediction Project

Steveston-Richmond East
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:10:41

Constituency Profile


Chan, Ping

Chiu, Kenny

Dela Torre, Jaeden

Iaci, Nicole

Peschisolido, Joe


Joe Peschisolido

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



86.03 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Joe Peschisolido 1948645.10%
Kenny Chiu 1663038.50%
Scott Stewart 524812.10%
Laura-Leah Shaw 15873.70%
Matthew Swanston 2740.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1770.52%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Delta-Richmond East
   (67.04% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (32.96% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/10/19 R.O.
The name confuses me of the location of this riding but basically its rate beside the Richmond Centre riding. It had been fairly close in 2015 and former liberal mp Joe Peschisolido returned to Ottawa. Who had originally been elected as a Canadian alliance mp in 2000 oddly enough. 2015 cpc candidate Kenny Chiu has returned to take another shot. I don’t think the liberals are polling strong enough in BC to keep such ridings this year.
01/09/19 A.S.
Not quite as monolithically Chinese as Richmond Centre--which, together with its being an open seat, might explain why it went Liberal while Richmond Centre stayed Conservative; in fact, a generation ago those dynamics would likely have reversed (sort of a Greater Vancouver version of Markham-Stouffville vs Markham-Unionville). And indeed, the present office-holder--who was first elected in Richmond for the Canadian Alliance in 2000, only to switch parties and lose the Lib nomination for 2004, before bouncing back in '15--is an emblem of that reversed dynamic. Remember: this used to be Bill Vander Zalm Central. But unfortunately for the Libs, S-RE isn't getting any *less* Chinese, nor is the Huawei case making the Chinese any more Liberal-friendly. So, knife-edge.
01/07/19 seasaw
It seems like Joe could be in some kind of trouble, his potential involvement in the money laundering scandal, though he maybe 100% innocent, but having a client involved in it, is going to get 2 strikes against him. That coupled with the fact that he only won a close race the last time and that the Liberals are polling well bellow their 2015 level provincially should put this one in the blue column.
22/03/19 Lowlander
This riding has the potential to go down the wire on election night. Steveston-Richmond East is comparatively more friendly to the Liberals than Richmond Centre, but the incumbent only won by around 3000 votes in 2015. In a riding where most voters flip between Liberal and Conservative, it won't take too big of a swing for the riding to turn blue. Slight edge to the Liberals given its incumbency, however this can quickly change as the election nears. TCTC.
03/03/19 Sam
The scale of the Liberal swing last time, can partly be attributed to Joe Peschisolido, a well-known face in Richmond. Despite this, this is a riding which is only Liberals in great years, and so it could be a bellwether on election night. Kenny Chiu is a good and experienced candidate who may be able to gain this. It wouldn't be a surprise if the NDP gained a few points here, complicating things for the Liberals.

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