Election Prediction Project

South Surrey-White Rock
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:10:33

Constituency Profile


Crozier, Stephen

Findlay, Kerry-Lynne

Hobby, Beverly Pixie

Hogg, Gordie

Poulin, Joel


Gordie Hogg

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



144.47 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Dianne Lynn Watts 2493444.00%
Judy Higginbotham 2349541.50%
Pixie Hobby 589510.40%
Larry Colero 19383.40%
Bonnie Hu 2610.50%
Brian Marlatt 1080.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 13432.97%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
   (95.59% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Newton-North Delta
   (3.64% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Fleetwood-Port Kells
   (0.77% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

05/10/19 Jack c
Kerry-Lynne Findlay is one of those candidates who seems to have the stench of loserdom hanging over them. Not withstanding her election in 2012 I just can’t see her beating Gordon Hogg who is the only person who could win this for the liberals.
22/09/19 R.O.
This was a surprise liberal pick up in a by election. If any liberal other than Gordon Hogg had won that by election , I’d say for sure the seat was going to return to the conservatives this year. Just not sure how much staying power he has in this riding. The conservatives do have a former mp running for them Kerry Lynne Findlay, she had also been the candidate in the by election.
18/09/19 A.S.
It usually *did* go Conservative in federal races; but that’s disregarding how 2015 changed the electoral climate in Greater Vancouver--and if anything, the 2015 general was more skewed by a ‘very well known candidate’ than the subsequent byelection; White Rock’s always been latently fertile ground for the Liberals, and were it not for Dianne Watts this seat would probably have gone the way of Findlay’s former constituency of Delta. With that in mind, the present race is more a test of whether 2015 was a one-off for the Libs at large in Greater Vancouver, than of whether the byelection was a one-off for Gordie Hogg. (Indeed, he probably won by a *narrower* margin than would have been the case in a Watts-less 2015.)
16/03/19 Laurence Putnam
Cautiously calling it for the Conservatives, all else being equal, it really should go Tory. It usually does in federal races and only went Liberal in a by-election with a very well known candidate whilst constituents were a little disgruntled at their Conservative incumbent's sudden resignation for political opportunism.
Gordie Hogg has one thing in his corner, besides his own hard-earned local name recognition: Kerry-Lynne Findlay's uncanny ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. This is the third riding she's run in since 2000, losing 3/4 contests; despite being the favoured candidate in at least three of those same races, if not all four.
08/03/19 Sam
Gordie Hogg made this Liberal and with a rematch between him and Kerry-Lynne Findlay he could easily do it again, but this is now a general election race and with higher turnout and the government at stake the Conservatives also have a strong chance.

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