Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:08:34

Constituency Profile


Anderson-Fennell, Randy

Bains, Amarit

Bennett, Tony

Corbet, Tanya

DeCraene, Craig

Ireland, Angelina

Qualtrough, Carla


Carla Qualtrough

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



187.31 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Carla Qualtrough 2735549.10%
Kerry-Lynne Findlay ** 1825532.80%
Jeremy Leveque 831114.90%
Anthony Edward Devellano 17683.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3070.67%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Newton-North Delta
   (53.62% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Delta-Richmond East
   (46.38% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

06/10/19 Marty
I think this one may go back to Conservative. I live in the riding, and a lot of people, like myself, who couldn't vote Harper last time, can't vote for Trudeau this time. More people in this middle class riding seem disgusted with Trudeau than against Scheer. More conservative signs on lawns then anyone else, at least in the south end of riding.
05/10/19 Physastr Master
My home riding. While this riding is new, I think that if it stays as a single riding, we'll be looking at it as if it's the new Peterborough in a couple of decades. It really is demographically the perfect bellweather, with essentially every major demographic group in Canada I can think of:
- A large suburban contingent with some large new condo developments and highrises in North Delta
- A significant agrarian presence through Ladner and Tsawwassen
- Older communities often popular for retirement through Tsawwassen and to a lesser extent Ladner
- Younger immigrant communities through north and central North Delta, some of which is majority Sikh, with significant east asian populations around as well
- An first nation in Tsawwassen
- wealthier households in sunshine hills and parts of Tsawwassen, with a strong working class area in north and central North Delta
- major industrial parks in Tilbury and Annacis
This has been reflected in the results, which have closely mirrored national trends each election, although it does seem to swing a little harder than the country as a whole. That said, considering that current polls indicate the Conservatives ahead in raw percentage with the Liberals more likely to win the most seats, I think it is solidly possible that the result in Delta may end up closer to the national election results than the results in the House of Commons... I'd say it probably leans Conservative, but this really is a E-day call.
17/09/19 A.S.
North Delta only seemed ‘more Liberal’ going into 2015 because of the erstwhile Sukh Dhaliwal factor, even though Sukh's real core of support was in Surrey, not Delta--in fact, the balance of the riding could *also* be characterized as ‘Liberal’ in that it was historically more NDP-incompatible than the North Delta rump (i.e. more akin to Richmond). Whatever the case, it worked in Carla Q's favour--and ironically, the demographic factors that made it more Con than Richmond in the past now make it more *Liberal* than Richmond.
16/09/19 South Islander
Carla Qualtrough unseated an incumbent cabinet minister last time, winning by more than 16% of the vote. This time, she is the incumbent cabinet minister. The LPC have not dropped enough and the CPC have not risen enough in BC to flip this riding (all else being equal), so I doubt that Hon. Carla Qualtrough will be unseated.
07/07/19 seasaw
Carla is probably one of the most competent ministers in the Trudeau cabinet, though she rode the red wave to victory the last time, this time she could do well on her own, but this time around Trudeau isn't all that popular and both the Tories and the Greens have credible candidates, a 5 to 6 thousand vote swing isn't uncommon and if that were to happen here, she won't be re-elected. We have to wait till closer to election to predict this one
08/05/19 Vancouverite
I think Delta is way too early to call for the Liberals at the moment. The Liberals are poisonous in most rural ridings, and given the expanses of rural areas of Delta, NorDel being part of the riding won't be enough to keep it Liberal. Overall, this riding is way too early to call, and will end up being very close on election night.
08/03/19 Sam
The Liberals won comfortably here last time with star candidate Carla Qualtrough, who has an even higher status now as Public Services Minister. This riding became more Liberal as it took the North Delta area so by running up high margins in that area they won it big last time and should cushion against Conservative gains. The Liberals have the edge here, but in a Conservative majority this still becomes vulnerable.

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