Albas, Dan
	Duncan, Allan
	Mellalieu, Robert
	Murphy, Mary Ann
	Phillip, Joan
	Regier, Jesse
Incumbent:
	Dan Albas

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			110293 104398 54649 48591 15984.90 km² 6.9/km²
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Dan Albas **	24517	39.60%
	Karley Scott	23059	37.20%
	Angelique Wood	11961	19.30%
	Robert Mellalieu	2436	3.90%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		26690	54.59%
		12736	26.05%
		4918	10.06%
		3796	7.76%
Other		754	1.54%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Okanagan-Coquihalla    (67.17% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Kelowna-Lake Country    (23.64% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
British Columbia Southern Interior    (9.19% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	08/10/19	R.O. 24.146.17.200
Despite being close in 2015 , more than likely current mp Dan Albas holds onto the riding than it flips to another party . greens will likely do better as be the case in many bc ridings.
	19/09/19	A.S. 99.225.32.21
Now, this was a shock; Stockwell Day’s successor riding nearly going Liberal--and that’s because the equally-unforeseen ‘Kelowna Liberal’ dynamics proved intense enough to hop Okanagan Lake and venture all the way down to Summerland and elsewhere. Then again, it *did* contain what was latterly Premier Christy Clark’s riding, so maybe it subliminally reflected her coming from the federal Liberal camp--ah, the perils of going by the one-size-fits-all illusion of the provincial BCLibs as a unilaterally ‘conservative’ party. Or, for that matter, the perils of going by the conventional wisdom of this being eternally hard-baked Wacky Bennett Socred country that’s custom-made for Jesusland types like Stockwell Day: with growth and in-diaspora comes a certain counter-sorting victim-of-its-own-popularity Lotusland-interior moderation--or perhaps an awakening of something that was always there? Still, it’s hard not to see this close call as more along the lines of said territory having gone fleetingly New Democrat in 1988--that is, in the entrenched twilight of the Harper gov’t, the Justin Libs as an attractive ‘anti-establishment’ choice; but now, the Libs *are* establishment, much like the NDP was usurped by Reform in ‘93. Ah, BC...
	19/09/19	Walnut 184.66.107.187
Geographically, this riding is made up of left-over bits from other ridings. It has a chunk of City of Kelowna (the area south of Highway 97) that couldn’t fit in Kelowna–Lake Country, Logan Lake that couldn’t fit into Kamloops, and Summerland that couldn’t fit in with Penticton in South Okanagan. It lumps together the more well-off urban areas of West Kelowna and Peachland with rural resource towns of Merritt and Princeton. Albas had to leave his native Penticton in 2015 (which was split off to South Okanagan) to contest this riding (which more resembles his old riding of Okanagan—Coquihalla) but only won it by 2.5%. It is feasible that the Liberals could win this riding with the right candidate, and Murphy does have a significant list of qualifications, but Albas has a reassuring comfortableness about him that shows he is in tune with voters and that this is his riding.
	18/07/19	Laurence Putnam 96.53.49.70
Was close last time. Won't be this time.
	22/06/19	Mark in Mexico 156.202.228.98
The Liberals had an impressive showing here last time but I expect the Conservative vote share to increase well into the 40s, making it virtually impossible for any of the other parties to overtake them.
	12/04/19	Sam 86.188.98.74
Dr Bear has shown consistency in his projections, but like in Cariboo-PG, I don't agree with his narrative that the Liberals are in the running due to a decline in the NDP vote, which is smaller here anyway. Whereas the other parties may target Kamloops, this riding, whilst close, was a blip and a bad result for the Conservatives. The riding boundaries changed so Albas' incumbency advantage was significantly limited, but now he knows the whole riding, and that will add a few points. But that shouldn't matter given the swing to the Liberals, the Conservatives are competing on Vancouver Island, Delta and Stikine, they won't need to worry about this.
	01/03/19	Dr.Bear 204.187.20.70
I was very surprised at how well the Liberals did in the BC interior back in 2015. I NEVER would have predicted a Liberal win in Kelowna and I would have scoffed at the idea of the Liberals coming within 2 points of taking Central Okanagan from the CPC....but here we are... Whatever the Liberals did in the BC interior, it worked! Now I am forced to give a TCTC prediction for this riding. If compelled to make a decision, I would say CPC hold. The Liberals do have a record to uphold and we are currently in the middle of a significant scandal. Still, we mare many months away from an election and this scandal may well blow over by then. As well, the Liberals moving to expand the pipeline from Alberta is popular in many parts of the BC interior. TCTC until we see how this election is unfolding.