Election Prediction Project

Cariboo-Prince George
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:07:50

Constituency Profile


Calogheros, Tracy

Doherty, Todd

Kerr, Mackenzie

Orr, Michael

Sapergia, Heather

Yang, Jing Lan


Todd Doherty

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



83018.97 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Todd Doherty 1968836.60%
Tracy Calogheros 1692131.50%
Trent Derrick 1387925.80%
Richard Edward Jaques 18603.50%
Sheldon Clare 6571.20%
Gordon Campbell 4020.70%
Adam De Kroon 3270.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 10332.39%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Cariboo-Prince George
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 R.O.
An interior BC riding that has been conservative for some time, Todd Doherty was first elected in 2015 and the race was closer that year that it had been in the past. Although feel this part of BC leans more conservative.
19/09/19 A.S.
The Libs are re-running their 2015 contender; but around these BC Interior parts it’s far from a given that that’s where a deflated NDP vote shall go. Plus, in the teeter-totter that is provincial politics, this is territory that’s been tilting away from the provincial Dippers compared to a decade ago--which in federal terms, doesn’t bode well for a united promiscuous-progressive front. It’ll all depend on how Prince George goes, where embedded urbanity made for a prime base of Lib support last time--though maybe a single PG riding rather than the city cleaved in half would make for a better non-Con prospect...
22/06/19 Mark in Mexico
Unless one of the other parties can emerge as a clear alternative to the incumbent (do any of them even have a candidate yet?), it's hard to see this slipping away from the CPC, even if this is not their bedrock territory in the same way that the other PG riding is.
11/04/19 Laurence Putnam
Bang on regarding the change in tone with the NDP. The BC NDP used to win these PG-area ridings fairly regularly, now they are not even competitive here. The Fed Liberals have thrown their lot in with the NDP on the pipeline debate, so the only party that is standing up for good paying blue collar jobs as far as a riding like this is concerned is the Conservatives. They may have had a scare last time, but I would expect this to rocket back up above 50% this time.
11/03/19 Dr.Bear
Another BC interior riding that made me say what-the-heck in 2015. Five points...only five points separated the Liberal and Conservative candidate. I would normally argue that the smart money is on the Conservatives: it has long voted right-of-centre; the Liberals have a record to uphold; if the CPC could hold it in Trudeaumania 2.0, they should hold it again, etc etc....however....There is 25% of the vote that went NDP. These are not your tree-hugging Lower Mainland NDPers, but rather your resource sector union men and women. Singh isn't someone who strikes a strong chord with these type of voters. While he'll woo folks in places like Burnaby, or on The Danforth, I think he'll lose support in the interior. This will be especially true if he starts railing against pipelines and/or the resource sector in general. In that case it would not take much of a swing to the Liberals to tip it into the red column. I am cautiously saying TCTC.
08/03/19 Sam
This is narrowly the better of the two Cariboo ridings for the Conservatives and they are in a good positon to hold this; it contains more heavily rural areas where the Conservatives can gain than the Kamloops riding. The Liberals will probably target this initially but the Conservatives are in a good position.

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