Election Prediction Project

Burnaby South
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:07:39

Constituency Profile


Brar, Neelam

Brocki, Rex

Rawdah, Al

Shin, Jay

Singh, Jagmeet

Sproule, Brian

Wauters, Brennan


Jagmeet Singh

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



46.08 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kennedy Stewart ** 1609435.10%
Adam Pankratz 1554733.90%
Grace Seear 1244127.10%
Wyatt Tessari 13062.80%
Liz Jaluague 4991.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3861.06%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Burnaby-New Westminster
   (54.52% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (45.48% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

13/10/19 The Jackal
With the bump of the NDP in the polls I feel Jagmeet Singh will retain this riding by a comfortable margin.
13/10/19 M.T
Even when Singh was suffering, I don't think this riding was ever quite in doubt. But now?
He's boosted his own personal profile *massively* in the debates. The NDP are on an upswing, hitting 18, 19 and 20% in polls at the moment. There seems to be a complete recovery to at least 2015 levels federally occurring now, barring Quebec, and so I really can't envision Singh losing his seat when you consider both of these factors.
12/10/19 Mizisuga
Singh isn't losing this, not at this point. He did well enough in the debate and the polls show this.
09/10/19 Eddie E.
Was way too early to call this one ln February, but with the NDP leader's slightly improved standing, thanks in large part to public apathy to the other PM choices, and after ‘winning’ the ‘debate’, l believe that Singh will win here now.
24/09/19 JSon
I think Singh has the edge here, due to anti Trans Mountain sentiment. However I think it was a long term strategic mistake to run here again and not in Brampton where Grewal got the boot from caucus.
NDPanic about losing grounds to Greens is literally killing them. Singh needs to flip Brampton orange & attack Doug Fordism, not me-too on pipelines vs May.
05/09/19 South Islander
Can a federal NDP leader who previously sat in the legislature of another province but managed to win a seat in Burnaby actually lose his Burnaby seat in a general election to Trudeau's Liberals? Believe it or not, this already happened - to Tommy Douglas in 1968. Although Douglas' riding had been redistributed into Burnaby-Seymour, which included parts of North Vancouver (making it more similar to Burnaby North-Seymour), Burnaby South isn't safe for the NDP either. Incumbent Kennedy Stewart barely held on in 2015 and Jagmeet Singh won here by ‘only’ 13% in a byelection despite running shortly after SNC broke as yet-unseated party leader with no Green candidate on the ballot. Headlines and polls have not been good for him or his party since then. A long-time Burnaby resident might be saved by loyal constituents even as British Columbians abandon the NDP in a general election. However, I'm skeptical that they would save a leader who previously represented Toronto suburbs, said he would not run in a byelection, sat out a number of byelections, then chose to run in a byelection in a different province - if that leader also leads his party to a substantial decline and traditional NDP voters want a new leader. Given Burnaby voters didn't vote NDP in large enough numbers to save even Tommy Douglas in 1968 after everything he accomplished with Pearson's LPC minority, I suspect history will repeat itself next month. In any case, I would be hesitant to predict an NDP win here.
03/09/19 ME
The leader is the party brand...and the party brand is not doing well. Singh can save his seat if he runs a by-election campaign in his own seat OTOH if there is any apparent attempt to actually flip seats outside of BC he will lose his seat due to the apparent collapse of the NDP
29/08/19 A.S.
If things turn out as catastrophic for the federal NDP as some polls are predicting, in a funny way I *can* see Jagmeet Singh being "Kim Campbelled" in his own seat, even if electors gave him a pass in the byelection. Sure, Burnaby South contains the last remaining territory in Canada to be in continuous NDP control since 1993; but the closeness in 2015 shows how nothing can or should be taken for granted even here. Still, I'm not saying he actually *will* be defeated--but I'm withholding a prediction just in case.
18/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Jagmeet Singh's leadership has been a disaster thus far, but it *shouldn't* affect him here. While his by-election win was uninspired, quite simply none of the other contenders has the benefit of the NDP organization in this riding to offer an alternative compelling enough to unseat the leader of the third party.
19/04/19 Richmondite
A lot has changed in Burnaby since Kennedy Stewart won by around 500 votes. Progressive voters, especially those opposing the locally-contentious Kinder Morgan pipeline, will likely flock to the NDP at the expense of the Liberals. Evidently, the by-election results indicate that the Liberals are indeed shedding support in this riding, as seen by the NDP's increase in vote share and the Liberals' decrease. Given that Jagmeet Singh has established himself firmly after the by-election as the leader and MP, it should be a relatively easier race for the NDP to win come October.
13/04/19 Cookie
Looking at the results of the by-election in Burnaby South,
we can see that the People's Party DID steal much of the vote from the Conservatives, and that the Conservatives would've probably came a close second if it weren't for Laura-Lynn Thompson.
That being said though, Jay Shin (who's running again) is not the star candidate the Conservatives need. For one, he's not very well known in the community and doesn't live in the riding. On top of that, he's had some bad press coverage for ads considered inappropriate. The liberals had the whole Karen Wang scandal and that will have ruined their chances, and that was before the Liberal polling numbers tanked. The Greens might steal some votes, but it won't change the final result much. Jagmeet Singh may not be the most popular leader in Canada, but him and his party both know that he needs to win this riding, and so the NDP will make sure he wins his seat.
03/04/19 Craig
Jagmeet Singh won a tough by-election and should be re-elected again, unless the Greens run a strong candidate and create messy vote splits. The Conservatives wouldn't have won even if they got the entire PPC vote, while the Liberals are fading fast due to the SNC-Lavalin scandal.
Sure, the NDP are way down, but they will have provincial resources to help them and John Horgan is quite popular here. The Trans Mountain buyout is not popular here either in this largely progressive riding. There's nothing to suggest it will go anything other than NDP right now.
27/02/19 Lolitha
Because of Jagmeet Singh, I think this will stay NDP. Having the party leader as a candidate in a historically NDP riding should ensure NDP victory unless he REALLY flops in the campaign.
27/02/19 M. Lunn
After Singh's large win, I would say the NDP has an advantage. Only question is with the Greens likely to put up a candidate during the election, whom will it hurt more, Liberals or NDP. Also the People's Party unlike other two by-elections got almost 11% so doubtful they will do that will, but will they swing over to the Conservatives or not? If they go over to the Conservatives it would close the gap, but this riding is not one they usually win even in the best of times, although they've some strong second, so looks more favourable for the NDP than before the by-election, but still want to see how things play out before calling it.
23/02/19 M. Lunn
Of the three by-elections on February 25th this is the one to watch. With the strong NDP history and Liberals dragged down by SNC Lavalin scandal I would give the NDP a slight edge, but with NDP's poor polling numbers and large Chinese community I could see this going Liberal. In theory Tories could win here with strong splits, but the PPC will likely get enough votes to kill any chance of that happening although not enough to win.

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