Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:07:12

Constituency Profile


Alderking, Aeriol

Duncan, Locke

Fast, Ed

Fowler, Stephen

Heffernan, Seamus

Sauve, Madeleine


Ed Fast

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



175.34 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ed Fast ** 2322948.30%
Peter Njenga 1577732.80%
Jen Martel 659313.70%
Stephen Fowler 24165.00%
David MacKay 1090.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1950.52%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

07/10/19 R.O.
Ed Fast has been mp for a while , if he held the riding easily in 2015 . he should be able to do the same this year . pre 2015 the cpc was getting 60% of the vote in this riding .although with 8 candidates on the ballot this year it might be tough to reach those levels once again.
17/09/19 A.S.
I wouldn't totally rule out the shifting-demos argument--it may not be enough to win, but it's certainly enough to no longer consign Abbotsford to the necessary norm of a monolithic 60th-percentile CPC stratosphere. The question here is: how much (if any) of that Sikh undercurrent's likely to shift to the NDP under Jagmeet Singh...
18/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Mark's right...demographics are changing, but it's hardly as though all he latte sipping Liberals are moving out to the Valley. Certainly younger voters last time were willing to give Trudeau a chance; Pierre won the valley too during Trudeaumania. I think disappointment with Trudeau overall will cause most voters here to vote the way their parents do; there's a different flavour out there big as it is getting it still feels like a small town with many active churches. Even much of the fairly large Indo Canadian population is of an entrepreneurial and socially conservative inclination that benefits the Conservatives. It's definitely blue in 2019 and I suspect for many more years to come.
22/06/19 Mark in Mexico
Ed Fast is safe, but I'll be watching to see how the shifting demographics of the valley will affect his vote share, and what it tells us about how many elections we will have to wait for this riding to become competitive. He *should* be back into the 50s, but will he be?
As it's not a competitive seat, it will also be interesting to see what non-Conservative voters do with their votes. Without strategic voting in play, small-g green voters may vote big-G Green in greater numbers that we might otherwise expect.
This is the heart of the bible belt - enough said. Ed Fast is a recognizable MP and will have no problems in seeking re-election. Conservative hold
27/03/19 Sam
The Conservatives have been very strong in Abbotsford in the last few elections, and there's no reason why Ed Fast should lose this.
22/02/19 Islander
The most conservative riding in the most conservative part of the Lower Mainland. Unless the Conservatives have a sudden meltdown, this one's not going anywhere.

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