Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:04:30

Constituency Profile


Bowman, Kristine

Francey, Gordon

Galavan, Douglas

Hoefsloot, Jeremy

Lystang, Cory

Satdeo, Angelena

Soroka, Gerald


Jim Eglinski

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



77376.44 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jim Eglinski ** 3795072.30%
Ryan Maguhn 746714.20%
Ken Kuzminski 47539.00%
Sandra Wolf Lange 15382.90%
Cory Lystang 8171.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3280.82%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (73.24% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (22.48% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Wild Rose
   (4.28% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

16/09/19 A.S.
Why go abroad? Even in an apparent no-hope case, campaigning is a good, low-carbon opportunity to ‘know one's turf’, maybe as a fly-on-the-wall in hostile territory but everything counts, y'know. And the Libs may have been trounced in Yellowhead last time; but in a repeat of what happened in Banff/Canmore further south, every Jasper poll went Liberal. And the NDP won a few reserve polls as well. So you might wind up with little in the end; but see how far you can take things, anyway. Campaigning as its own best ‘work vacation’--you might not get elected, but most world travellers don't necessarily intend to settle where they're travelling, either. Just accept that the odds are overwhelmingly in favour of the Cons--but, anything can happen...
12/09/19 R.O.
No incumbent this year but riding is likely to stay conservative as its rural Alberta .
08/04/19 Sam
The only thing I would add is that the Liberal (and NDP) candidate @Laurence Putnam described should also consider parts of Asia and the Americas that you need 6-8 weeks off to properly see, whereas Europe is far easier to get to from Alberta. Conservative hold.
27/03/19 Laurence Putnam
Whoever the Liberal candidate is, here's my advice:
Use the time off work you're getting from your employer for the campaign to go backpacking through Europe. You'll get to see wonderful architecture, enjoy haute cuisine, art galleries and everything else the product of centuries of culture have to offer you. When will you get another opportunity like this to take 6-8 weeks off work???
You'll get 10-15% of the vote anyway and absolutely nothing you do in the riding is going to change that.
26/02/19 Craig
Probably the most blue collar riding in Alberta outside of the oil sands, and while the NDP did win some of these seats provincially in 2015, that seems like a distant memory (and likely won't ever repeat itself). Trudeau is despised here with policies like C-48 and C-69 being seen as attacks on their livelihood. Hence, the Conservatives should win overwhelmingly, unless they get undercut by People's...or a separatist party...
18/02/19 JW
Rural Aberta riding. Enough said.

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