Election Prediction Project

Sturgeon River-Parkland
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:04:28

Constituency Profile


Beauchamp, Tyler

Brochu, Ronald

Chauvet, Ernest

Desforges, Guy

Lloyd, Dane

Romyn, Cass


Dane Lloyd

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



3982.27 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Rona Ambrose ** 4322070.20%
Travis Dueck 958615.60%
Guy Desforges 616610.00%
Brendon Greene 18753.00%
Ernest Chauvet 6901.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 350.08%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Edmonton-Spruce Grove
   (60.22% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Westlock-St. Paul
   (34.83% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (4.95% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

16/09/19 Stevo
If Scheer crash lands this election, Rona Ambrose will certainly be a frontrunner to replace him. This riding may well be the home of a future Prime Minister.
15/09/19 A.S.
Actually, there *has* been an illustrious recent Liberal history here, with onetime provincial party leader Nick Taylor calling Westlock-Sturgeon as his home base (and even 2006's 15% seemed an overperforming ghost of that by rural-Alberta standards). Of course, that was all before party support sorted itself much more bluntly along rural-urban lines (even if Notleymania momentarily disrupted that pattern). I still see the final result being closer to Rona's 70% than Dane Lloyd's 77%; if only because the riding isn't getting any less urban (and *maybe* a token PPC factor, though the byelection had CHP as a substitute)
12/09/19 R.O.
Near Edmonton but was an easy cpc win in the by election a couple years ago , should stay cpc .
13/06/19 Laurence Putnam
When Trudeaumania 2.0 swept the country, the Liberal candidate here placed second, managing a full 15% of the vote, which was their best result since 2006 (under the former, less favourable boundaries). Let's just say that I feel confident in my prediction.
06/03/19 Sam
The by-election result indicates the strength of the Conservative vote here, and there is no reason why this won't hold up.
23/02/19 M. Lunn
Tories got 77% here in the by-election so even if things tighten a bit (which I am not sure they will) they should easily win this one.

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