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Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:04:10
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Hawthorne, Shannon

Kirshenbaum, Harris

Motz, Glen

Nelson, Andrew

Phillips, Dave

Thomson, Elizabeth


Incumbent:

Glen Motz

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

106896
102847

43243
40125

29559.04 km²
3.6/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jim Hillyer ** 3484968.80%
Glen Allan 908517.90%
Erin Weir 48979.70%
Brent Smith 13192.60%
John Clayton Turner 5001.00%


2011 Results (redistributed)

2565968.70%
557914.94%
416511.15%
16594.44%
Other 2880.77%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Medicine Hat
   (76.52% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Lethbridge
   (18.93% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Macleod
   (4.55% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


30/09/19 R.O.
24.146.17.200
Was a somewhat interesting by election here back in 2016 after former mp Jim Hillyer died tragically. however it still went cpc by a large margin so likely to stay cpc this year now that Glen Motz is the incumbent.
16/09/19 A.S.
99.225.32.21
Well, Medicine Hat proper *did* go provincially NDP in 2015--but that's when it still had its own riding; divided into two rurban entities in 2019, both went 60%+ UPC. And as ‘conservative’ a town as it may be (though it's a pretty generic state of affairs in a province like Alberta), it still has a moderating influence on a riding that presently extends into places like Mormon Cardston--heck, the Libs managed 25% in the Hillyer-replacing byelection, and managed to score a few downtown Medicine Hat polls in the process. But 2/3 of the vote still seems like a rough bottom unless PPC splitting runs amok.
25/06/19 Laurence Putnam
96.53.49.70
For a long time, provincially, this was a race between the governing Progressive Conservatives and whoever the other right wing party of the day was; Wildrose/Alberta Alliance/Social Credit/Whatever. It even elected Alberta Alliance it's only seat at one point (2004?) and that's when the mighty PC's were still at the twilight of their power.
Provincial/Federal results don't always translate but its' safe to say that in a riding where the choice is between the right wing party and the even more right wing party that the Conservatives have this one in the bag.
20/04/19 Craig
24.213.108.184
Medicine Hat may be a decent-sized city and it makes up 2/3 of the riding. But it's a conservative city, even for Alberta standards (far more so than even Lethbridge). As for the rest of the riding - most polls the Conservatives will likely get 80%, 90% or more of the vote. The downturn in the oil and gas sector (although natural gas is bigger than oil here) will only amplify that.
Glen Motz can basically cruise to victory, like every other CPC candidate in most of Alberta. The PPC might be able to put up a fight for second place if they find a strong candidate, while the Liberals will likely collapse to below 10%.
04/04/19 Sam
86.28.79.130
The Conservative vote here has always held up both in 2015 and at the subsequent by-election. In a rural Alberta riding like this, no outcome other than a Conservative hold seems likely.
18/02/19 JW
45.41.168.96
Rural Aberta riding. Enough said.



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