Election Prediction Project

Fort McMurray-Cold Lake
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:03:55

Constituency Profile


Barrett, Matthew

Deheer, Brian

Farrington, Maggie

Gilks, Matthew

Yurdiga, David


David Yurdiga

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



144436.18 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

David Yurdiga ** 2862560.60%
Kyle Harrietha 1340328.40%
Melody Lepine 36637.70%
Brian Deheer 7431.60%
Scott Berry 5521.20%
Roelof Janssen 2800.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Fort McMurray-Athabasca
   (78.82% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Westlock-St. Paul
   (21.18% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Fort Mcmurray is at the heart of oil in Canada, that should mean a CPC hold here.
18/09/19 R.O.
Riding has been cpc for a long time , was a close by election a few years ago when David Yurdiga first elected , which has mostly been forgotten . easy cpc hold this year
16/09/19 A.S.
2015's worst AlbertaCon riding outside of CalgEdmLeth--though some of that might have been carryover from Liberal overperformance in the preceding byelection. And that was a year before the Fort McMurray fires--so, how might that have affected things? Well, provincially, UCP got over 2/3 of the vote in the two Fort McMurray ridings. (Though given that whatever the local economy, FMcM is still an urban centre with a populace tending t/w youth and/or out-of-province origins, I still wouldn't go so far as to declare that Lib + NDP will total under 20%. It's not exactly Crowfoot we're dealing with.)
13/06/19 Laurence Putnam
A small minority of people will vote Liberal in this riding. Even fewer will admit they did.
12/04/19 Laurence Putnam
Former Louisiana Governor Edwin Edwards once said that the only way he could lose his re-election (versus David Duke) would be if he were caught in bed with a dead woman or a live man. The Tory candidate here could say the same.
If you want to hear another funny line from that same aforementioned race, when Edwards, a notorious womanizer, was first asked how he felt about running against Duke, a former Grand Wizard of the Ku Klux Klan, he said ‘It seems this will be a race fought between two candidates, each with a reputation as a wizard beneath the sheets.’
Edwards won in a landslide.
08/03/19 Sam
This is a definite Conservative hold and a riding in which they could gain votes substantially due to the local resource issues as well as the rural dynamics.
26/02/19 Craig
The heart of the oil sands is ground zero for the hatred of the Liberals and Trudeau in the west, especially in Alberta. As a result, the Conservatives should win by enormous margins, with their biggest competition potentially coming from the People's Party if they field a strong candidate here. The Liberals and NDP will likely *combine* for under 20%, especially with many millennial voters likely having gone home due to the oil struggles.
18/02/19 JW
Rural Aberta riding. Enough said.

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