Election Prediction Project

Edmonton Strathcona
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:03:40

Constituency Profile


Cameron, Ian

Kalmanovitch, Michael

Lilly, Sam

MacDonald, Dougal

McPherson, Heather

Olszewski, Eleanor

Rankin, Naomi


Linda Duncan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



81.82 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Linda Duncan ** 2444644.00%
Len Thom 1739531.30%
Eleanor Olszewski 1152420.70%
Jacob K. Binnema 12782.30%
Malcolm Stinson 3110.60%
Ryan Bromsgrove 2010.40%
Donovan Eckstrom 1330.20%
Chris Jones 1160.20%
Andrew Schurman 1070.20%
Dougal MacDonald 930.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3840.77%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (98.06% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Edmonton East
   (1.94% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Eddie E.
l will not change my prediction but l will admit that this will be closer than l thought it would be. The non-con vote is coalescing around the NDP candidate, but the Cons also have a strong candidate and will get about 40% of the vote. l think Duncan would have pulled this out, but the new NDP candidate will come just a percentage point or two short. Only riding in Alberta that is in serous doubt, and probably the only one where an opposition party candidate will be within 5% of the CON candidate.
19/10/19 QuebecCityOliver
The only interesting riding in Alberta. One has to assume that Green and Liberal voters will now coalesce around the NDP candidate.
Should still be close given how strong CPC support is in Alberta and also look at the PPC support to see if it also collapses.
338 is still listing the CPC as leading despite collapsing the Green Party vote to below 2%.
18/10/19 R.O.
According to a new mainstreet poll this riding is still really close and unclear what affect the green candidate quitting had on the race although he’ll still be on the ballot and advance votes still count
Quito Maggi? @quito_maggi · 16h16 hours ago ,And, an update look at Edmonton-Strathcona, where the Conservative candidate @sam_lilly1 is hanging on to a narrow lead over @ndp challenger @HeatherMNow who was recently boosted by an endorsement of the @CanadianGreens local candidate
17/10/19 ghoris
Still TCTC, but it's clear a vote for the Liberals is now a vote for the CPC. Most projections have the NDP and CPC in a dead heat, and with the Green candidate dropping out and endorsing McPherson, it's clear where the momentum is. The pundit class is finally realizing that the Liberals were never really in the game here, and the only thing they can do now is act as a spoiler. If Liberal supporters really want a 'progressive' candidate to win, they'd be well advised to down tools here and throw all their resources into Edmonton Centre, where they still have a shot.
I still think it's going to come down to the wire, and the result will depend on two things: GOTV, and whether enough Liberals see the writing on the wall and strategically vote NDP to keep the CPC out.
17/10/19 Physastr Master
To put the final nail in the coffin, the Green candidate just pulled out and endorsed the NDP. That isn't a lot of votes, but in a close race, it matters. NDP hold.
17/10/19 Manny Toba
Green Party candidate quits, endorses McPhersom.
16/10/19 Bza
Ready to call this one for the NDP. Going around the riding it’s evident to me that the university and west side of the riding will provide enough support to offset any of the more blue-tinted parts of the riding.
16/10/19 Nick M.
I feel like it is tradition that the EPP will calls this one NDP. As the riding is like the Annex in the old Trinity Spadina of Toronto, but without as many Condos.
Even though Notley, the NDP provincial MLA might not vote NDP, (cause of Singhs anti working man pipeline position.) I think the ridings University privileged class will carry the day.
This is the only riding that won’t go CPC in Alberta.
14/10/19 Stevo
Singh's late campaign surge in the polls nationwide should be enough to hold this seat. Expect the Liberals to fall to single digits here.
12/10/19 Cal
Singh’s bump during campaign will win this.
12/10/19 Bo
With the NDP gaining steam and climbing back to 2015 levels of support in recent polling, they should be able to fend off the Tories in this riding, even with a new candidate.
06/10/19 Eddie E.
Ready to call this for the Torles. As l said below, for the NDP or Libs to have a real chance to take this the progressive vote had to coalesce around them, and lt hasn't happened. NDP has the history but the Libs have the better candidate, and the result ls a split which will allow the Torles to slip up the middle with a vote in the high 30s or low 40s.
05/10/19 AR
Recent riding polls have the Conservatives in first place here with around 38% while the Liberals and NDP are fighting it out for a distant 2nd, splitting the vote. Jagmeet Singh's pipeline position is not sitting well with even left-wing supporters in Alberta and that includes Rachel Notley.
02/10/19 Physastr Master
It's hard to say what's going on here, but here are a few facts on the current state of play:
- Alberta (along with Quebec) is one of the few places in Canada where the NDP is currently seeing consistent growth in the 338 polling aggregate, in this case at the expense of the Liberals. According to those aggregates, NDP support is basically unchanged in AB since 2015
- In this cycle, the NDP's riding level polls have *always* been worse than what would be expected given regional swings. Whenever one pops up, be it Windsor West, Berthier-Maskinonge, Laurier-St. Marie, or, yes, Edmonton-Strathcona, it is never good news for the NDP, even when national and provincial trends are good (anyone feel free to give me a counterexample)
-tooclosetocall.ca did an article on this phenomenon (it really isn't just me hypothesizing, I swear!), and they seem to be indicating that in Quebec, if riding-level polls are to be trusted and indicative of trends, the current NDP support is at less than 5% in the province, which is less than half of the current provincial averages and even worse than pre-Jack numbers
- Most of these polls have been mainstreet, which has been uniquely pessimistic about NDP chances nationally
- The same thing happened in the BC election, where riding-level polls labelled most competitive ridings in Surrey as as Liberal-leaning and marked Cowichan Valley as competitive, while the liberals weren't even close on election day
Based on this I can see 3 possibilities:
- the riding-level polls are right and the NDP is completely and utterly screwed basically everywhere
- riding polls are wrong and the provincial trends are the result of NDP support rebounding to 2015 levels in ancestrally NDP areas, mainly in response to Jagmeet's rapidly-improving favorability scores.
- The riding polls and national polls are correct but we aren't looking for NDP growth in the right place (Calgary-Skyview, anyone?)
I'm not inclined to believe scattered riding-level polls over national and provincial trends given their history, and as much as it would be a really amusing result to see the Jagmeet effect in Sikh communities sweep New Democrats into office in Surrey, Brampton, and Calgary-Skyview while losing everything else, I really don't believe that's going to happen (although I do expect some sort of pro-NDP bump in majority-minority communities). This leaves us with the NDP just holding relative to 2015 in the same areas they held in 2015, which should make this an NDP hold.
24/09/19 ghoris
I live in this riding, and I have to say the Liberal partisans on this board are deluded if they think the Grits have a serious shot at picking it up. Consider that this same Liberal candidate barely cracked 20% of the vote in 2015, a high-water year for the Grits and the Trudeau “brand”. Four years later, the Ljberal brand is utterly toxic in Alberta, and Trudeau maybe even more so. This even before the blackface incident, which I can’t imagine is sitting well with the educated white small-l liberals who dominate the riding’s demographics. The NDP cleaned up in this area provincially against a strong UCP tide, with the Liberals barely registering. Any thought of a Liberal gain here is pure wishful thinking, and Liberal partisans would be better off focusing their efforts on Edmonton Centre where Boissonault has a decent shot at retaining the seat.
Make no mistake, this is a two horse race between the CPC and NDP. The question is whether the Liberals do well enough to be a spoiler by splitting the “progressive” vote. If Duncan was running again it would be a slam dunk, but the new NDP candidate is relatively unknown. The Tory candidate is also low-profile but seems well organized. One to watch on election night.
23/09/19 Nick M.
I live in this riding, and I can tell you that this riding will not go Liberal. I would strategically vote NDP (because the have are the favorites) just to keep the Liberals out if I thought the Liberals had a hope in hell of winning.
I understand everyone has a bias (myself included), even though we are trying to stay neutral, a Liberal win is never gonna happen.
This riding is TCTC at the moment, the NDP are slight favorites over the Conservatives, but too early to give it a call.
22/09/19 ME
338 has this as a Toss up with a slight lead for the NDP
21/09/19 Ryan
With the departure of Linda, this riding is up for grabs. The NDP candidate has a low profile while the Liberal candidate has much bigger name recognition. I cannot see it going Conservative. At this point, I would say that the Liberals have the best chance but the NDP are not too far behind.
20/09/19 Eddie E
Probably the most left-leaning riding in Edmonton, but one without an incumbent or star candidate for the left to rally around now that Duncan has retired, which may very well allow the conservatives to slip up the middle. Without a clear candidate to rally around (unlike Randy Boissonault in Edmonton Center) the non-con vote is left with two unappealing choices....a toxic liberal brand and the imploding federal NDP campaign. Duncan herself would have had her hands full to pull this out, but might have scraped through on personal charisma and strategic voting by Liberals. Can’t see her replacement being able to hold off the Cons though.
16/09/19 Peekaboo
Many Liberals, like myself, voted for an excellent NDP candidate to prevent the Conservatives from winning. Now with Ms Duncan gone, its a bit of an open book. Many Liberals will go back to the party, as the Candidate is excellent, ran last time, and would be a ‘voice at the table’ for Edmonton Strathcona. The Federal NDP did nothing but enable Rachel Notely's demise this past April, and really didn't give Linda Duncan much to do. The true progressives in the riding (not ideologues) will hopefeully swing Liberal to defeat the tories.
12/09/19 R.O.
Such a tough one to predict , ndp should in theory have enough support in downtown Edmonton to hold this one as they swept the area provincially but they rarely win federal seats in alberta so it could go to another party .
01/09/19 Steve Smith
I'd suggest that this should be moved to TCTC. I don't agree that it's a Linda Duncan riding--Malcolm Azania did very well as an NDP candidate as well, and all parts of the riding handily returned NDP MLAs provincially--but neither is it a true NDP riding. Rather, it's an Edmonton riding that is somewhat more left-leaning than average. The national weakness of the NDP, together with the loss of a fairly popular incumbent, likely makes the NDP weaker than last time, and the Conservative ascendancy in Alberta overall likely makes the Conservatives stronger than last time. These effects combine to make the outcome uncertain.
31/08/19 Nick M.
I live here. I would place this as too close to call at this stage.
Federal NDP anti Alberta. Sure this is University town. No incumbent is sure to split the leftist vote, and the enthusiasm for volunteers in Alberta is gonna come from the right.
29/08/19 A.S.
It's more than just a Linda Duncan riding, it's a Rachel Notley riding. And if it's endangered now, it's due to the doldrums the federal NDP are in in general, more than to Duncan's retirement--essentially, CPC potentially rising by default thanks to the deflation of the competition. And Strathcona doesn't seem the kind of place where the strategic Libs would feast their way to victory off Dipper entrails, even if they're re-running their 2015 standard-bearer...
I believe that Edmonton Strathcona will stay in the NDP column. Considering that the provincial NDP are very popular here, the two provincial ridings that make up the majority of this riding went to the NDP with an average of 66% of the vote, it would not be surprising to see some of that support carry over to the federal NDP. In addition, although, the incumbent has resigned, polls still show this riding going to the NDP, and it has belonged to the NDP since 2008. Lastly, the Liberals and Green parties are not very popular in Alberta, so the risk of vote splitting is very minimal, which means that the left wing support will likely coalesce around one party that has the largest chance to defeat the conservatives, the NDP.
28/05/19 seasaw
This isn't an NDP riding, it's a Linda Duncan riding. With Duncan gone, and NDP and Liberals in Alberta, this riding should go Tory
22/05/19 Stephen
Besides Churchill, this will be the only NDP seat between Ontario and the Rockies. Strathcona really is different. No other neighbourhood like it exists in Alberta or Saskatchewan. In Saskatoon (along with many other places), Singh’s unpopularity will hurt him, but that’s much less the case here: this riding is educated, creative class, and relatively diverse ethnically.
This is a stronghold for them. The Tories won’t be able to take it. If the Liberals bleed votes as is very possible, the NDP will only increase its share.
21/05/19 Stevo
Notley's NDP won nearly every seat in Edmonton while losing provincewide. We always say that one cannot extrapolate federal results from provincial, and while that is true, it is important not to go overboard with that rule wheand disregard provincial results entirely. It's hard to envision Edmonton go from granting nearly all its seats to the provincial NDP to granting none to the federal NDP, even given the difference in pipeline policy. So, I think the CPC's aspiration of taking every Alberta seat (like in 2006) will be foiled. This will be the NDP's only seat in Alberta once again, but it's a safe one.
27/04/19 The Jackal
I'm going to be bold and call this the only non-CPC seat in Alberta after October.
22/04/19 Sam
Too early to call. Without Linda Duncan, holding this won't be so easy for the NDP, but this is a progressive district with more natural NDP voters than anywhere else in the province. I wouldn't read much into the provincial results either - this has always been good for the NDP even when the Liberals got better results than them, plus there's usually a boost for party leaders in their ridings.
20/04/19 Craig
The fact that the Alberta NDP largely held Edmonton and won big here, despite being annihilated in the rest of the province, make me think that this could be one of the only seats in either Saskatchewan or Alberta that does not go Conservative. If the federal NDP can recruit Rachel Notley (which won't go well with the socialist/environmentalist wing), Strathcona should easily remain orange.
It's easy to forget that this is a fairly multicultural riding and well educated, with a fairly large 'creative class'. That should at least keep progressives in the ball game, and with no other even remotely competitive seats for the NDP in Alberta, they will put all their eggs here. However, farther from Whyte Avenue, the Conservative vote will likely rise and without Notley on the ballot it might put them over the top like Rahim Jaffer did. Too close to call.
18/04/19 D.I.Y.
After seeing how well Notley did in her provincial Edmonton-Strathcona riding as well as the rest of the Edmonton ridings, going into the 2019 federal election, it looks like the NDP stand a good chance of holding this seat.
16/03/19 Laurence Putnam
On a road trip, I stayed at the HI in Edmonton Strathcona back in the fall of 2018; most of my fellow hostellers weren't young travelling types; they were out of work boilermakers and roughnecks happy to sit in the cafeteria with a coffee and tell you all about how they were life long NDPers whose lives have been destroyed by NDP & federal Liberal policies related to the oil industry. It's palpable, you can't avoid hearing about it.
Yes, the University is here, and yes it's the artsy, airy-fairy part of town, and no doubt this will remain the beachhead of NDP support in Alberta; the next candidate should still crest 30% of the vote...
...nevertheless...when looking at the electorate as a whole, I think we're headed back to the Rahim Jaffer days where the Conservatives will be able to squeeze this one out by riding the rising tide of extreme dissatisfaction with both the Liberals and NDP, whose incumbent is not running again and whose federal campaign has no money to spend.
02/03/19 Lolitha
Too close to call for now. Linda Duncan had a lot of personal popularity and strategic votes behind her. Will these votes stick with the NDP is the question.

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