Election Prediction Project

Edmonton Griesbach
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:03:28

Constituency Profile


Alva Armas, Christine

Boykowich, Alex

Cherrington, Mark

Diotte, Kerry

Gudanowski, Andrzej

Joyce, Mary

Khan, Safi

Mohamud, Habiba

Nichols, Barbara Ellen


Kerry Diotte

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



45.97 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kerry Diotte 1915740.00%
Janis Irwin 1630934.00%
Brian Gold 1039721.70%
Heather Workman 11292.40%
Maryna Goncharenko 4150.90%
Linda Northcott 2790.60%
Bun Bun Thompson 1440.30%
Mary Joyce 1120.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Edmonton East
   (78.74% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Edmonton-St. Albert
   (21.26% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

13/10/19 R.O.
Cpc is ahead in alberta so not a surprise a mainstreet poll has incumbent cpc mp Kerry Diotte leading.
New Mainstreet riding polls ,Tory blowout in Edmonton-Griesbach, By Marco Vigliotti. Published on Oct 12, 2019 10:23am
15/09/19 A.S.
A heartbreak in '15, but off the fumes of that heartbreak, the likeliest top-two NDP finish in Alberta after Strathcona. That the federal Dippers might be reduced to grovelling for second-place finishes in Alberta in '19 is a bit sad; but, so it goes. (Unless Rachel Notley holding her provincial Edmonton bloc boosts some contrarian morale, that is.)
20/04/19 Craig
Likely Conservative. It's true that the NDP support held up well here in the provincial election, but the federal NDP are running much lower in the polls. Unlike Strathcona, this is a more working class riding with a large number of employees in the oil sector. If they can take a more moderate tone on resource development, they'd have a decent chance with the Liberal vote collapsing (a vote split helped the Conservatives in 2015).
However, I think they see Jagmeet Singh in a different light as Rachel Notley here. He may not be as toxic as Trudeau, but he's not particularly popular here and the Leap Manifesto is radioactive. Unless the NDP can start rising in national polls, Kerry Diotte should be heading back to Ottawa.
18/04/19 Ontario Voter
I actually still believe this has a high possibility of going NDP considering that provincially the party swept Edmonton once again in the election. This indicates that Edmonton has a very loyal NDP base and that the 2015 election wasn’t an outlier. This provincial success has yet to translate federally into seats but a lot of voters last time around were split between liberals and NDP and with the liberals being so unpopular in Alberta I don’t see that happening again. Many NDP seats provincially within the boundaries of this riding went NDP again with over 50% of the vote.
15/03/19 Stevo
This was 'supposed' to be the NDP's near-certain second seat in the city of Edmonton. That dream will have to be shelved for at least another election cycle.
09/03/19 Sam
Although this is close, this riding wasn't certain to go Conservative last time but did by a decent margin, and this year the Conservatives are doing better and will hold the seat. I agree with the @Lolitha who argued the Conservatives will hold all their Alberta seats.
27/02/19 Lolitha
I think it is doubtful the conservatives will lose any of their currently held seats in Alberta. Neither the Liberal or NDP brands are doing particularly well in the province.

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