Election Prediction Project

Calgary Centre
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:02:59

Constituency Profile


Boonlert, Thana

Buresi, Jessica

Gould, Eden

Hehr, Kent

Johnston, Chevy

McLean, Greg

Pawlowski, Dawid

Pewtress, Michael


Kent Hehr

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



49.20 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kent Hehr 2849646.50%
Joan Crockatt ** 2774645.30%
Jillian Ratti 34125.60%
Thana Boonlert 13472.20%
Yogi Henderson 2480.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 80.02%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Calgary Centre
   (96.7% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Calgary East
   (3.3% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Kent Hehr's really done himself no favors. Add in his being a Liberal in Alberta and that means a CPC win here tomorrow.
15/10/19 R.O.
I expected a fierce battle for this riding but so far little has occurred. Neither Trudeau or Scheer have even campaigned in the riding so far. Greg Mclean is the new cpc candidate this year after he won a competitive nomination and he has been campaigned hard in the riding. This is a downtown Calgary riding so its not necessary an easy riding for the cpc to win but there polling so well in Alberta its more than likely to return to the cpc. Unless Kent Hehr is more popular in the riding than people realise. But a liberal win in Calgary seems very unlikely this year.
21/09/19 Eddie E.
Won’t be close. lf you want to see what 2019 results are going to look like in Calgary you’d do better to look at 2011 rather than the 2015 outlier. Why did the Liberals keep Hehr? Because it doesn’t matter...any Liberal is going to be crushed here and it would have looked bad to push out Hehr. Better to let him get trounced in a no-hope election and be able to start fresh next time with clean hands.
15/09/19 A.S.
Just the Grits' dumb luck: their first MPs in Calgary since Trudeaumania I, and they *both* wind up disgraced. Though re Sam's ‘top chance for a gain’ claim, I wouldn't say it's as cut-and-dried--maybe relative to Edmonton's seats; but there's also the matter of Skyview, and unlike Skyview there *is* an incumbent running here. And also, I reckon that at this point, the Lib-not-Con brand might have more traction (however residual) among progressive-minded urbans than multicultural suburbans; and guess which side of the divide Calgary Centre lies on--sure, it's been electing federal Cons since forever; but as Joe Clark demonstrated in 2000, the prevailing mood is more *Progressive* Conservative, or subsequently CPC more out of hard-wired big-tent convenience. For that reason, even if the Cons win, don't be surprised if it's with less than what they lost with in '15. (Come to think of it, it's a wonder nobody's considered the Greens relative to Calgary Centre--after all, they tended t/w double-digit shares in the downtown Calgary ridings in 2004-11, and managed 25% in the 2012 CC byelection, though that all strategically vanished into the Liberal maw in 2015.)
27/05/19 Laurence Putnam
It would have been difficult for Hehr to have been re-elected here anyways at the best of times; given Liberal polling in Alberta I think it's doubtful he would have won even without all the scandal. Scandal on top of weak polling and he doesn't have a hope.
13/04/19 OttawaGuy94
As what others said, the Liberals allowing Hehr to run again is going to hurt them. They should have let him finish out the term but try to nominate another candidate for the general.
18/03/19 Sam
This is to me the Conservative's top chance for a gain in Alberta, although I expect them to gain some others. Whereas the three non-Con Edmonton ridings are more multicultural and progressive, this is a riding which has been Conservative for a lot longer. Kent Hehr has had a lot of bad press, and the Conservative candidate has as of yet no real detractors. Justin Trudeau is particularly unpopular in the West, but that's obviously an average. Even so, this is generally a Conservative riding and it should return to its roots.
07/03/19 MF
Hard to believe that in a city the size of Calgary there isn't one reliably 'non-Conservative' riding, but the disgraced Kent Hehr barely won last time and will most likely lose.
05/03/19 Craig
Changing my thoughts: there's no way with the SNC-Lavalin scandal ongoing that Kent Hehr holds on. Alberta (and Saskatchewan) are where the anger is greatest at the Liberals, and although it may not be as strong in central Calgary, it is still going to resonate locally. Hence the Conservatives should pick this one up.
02/03/19 seasaw
Kent Hehr was already in trouble before this scandal became public, and according to the latest poll that suggests about 70% of Albertans want Trudeau out. That would make Hehr's chances of winning here non existant
26/02/19 Craig
Probably the most 'progressive' riding in southern Alberta. With the weakened NDP, that will help Kent Hehr at least get a fighting chance. There's a large millennial and immigrant population here, and it's a highly educated riding, so that would be somewhat more receptive to the Liberals. That said, this is still Calgary, and Trudeau isn't particularly popular here. I'd say too close to call, perhaps leaning Conservative but it won't be an easy win like in most of the rest of the city.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster