Election Prediction Project

Bow River
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:02:57

Constituency Profile


Ikert, Tom

Lipp, Tom

Macwilliam, Lynn

Rhemtulla, Margaret

Shields, Martin

Tuithof de Jonge, Hendrika Maria


Martin Shields

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



24036.47 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Martin Shields 3870177.40%
William MacDonald Alexander 684013.70%
Lynn MacWilliam 26225.20%
Rita Ann Fromholt 9191.80%
Andrew Kucy 5431.10%
Frans VandeStroet 2800.60%
Fahed Khalid 830.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 5471.50%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (51.52% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Medicine Hat
   (38.94% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (9.54% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

31/08/19 A.S.
It may be of academic interest that while notionally top of the Con-vote heap in 2011, Bow River fell 3.5% points back of Battle River-Crowfoot in 2015--some might blame open-seatdom, but it's likelier because it's more within the exurban-Calgary orbit, which gave some token bump to the Justin Liberals. (In fact, in the rapidly-growing Conrich poll, ‘Skyview spillover’ pushed the Libs over 40%.) Still, the Con base is elevated enough to invite PPC-second-place speculation--though as a measure of how that *could* wind up blown out of proportion, this is where, provincially, Wildrose-turned-Free Conservative leader Derek Fildebrandt (the closest thing to a provincial PPC proxy) ran; and he only got 7% of the vote.
18/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Ridings like this really beg the question: what exactly would a Liberal or NDP candidate have to do to win?
03/03/19 Sam
The Conservatives won 78% last time, and barring the biggest upset in years, which won't happen with Martin Shields, they will win again.
18/02/19 JW
Rural Aberta riding. Enough said.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster