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Bow River
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:02:57
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Ikert, Tom

Lipp, Tom

Macwilliam, Lynn

Rhemtulla, Margaret

Shields, Martin

Tuithof de Jonge, Hendrika Maria


Incumbent:

Martin Shields

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

115022
103871

41278
38486

24036.47 km²
4.8/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Martin Shields 3870177.40%
William MacDonald Alexander 684013.70%
Lynn MacWilliam 26225.20%
Rita Ann Fromholt 9191.80%
Andrew Kucy 5431.10%
Frans VandeStroet 2800.60%
Fahed Khalid 830.20%


2011 Results (redistributed)

3041283.39%
29758.16%
12913.54%
12443.41%
Other 5471.50%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Crowfoot
   (51.52% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Medicine Hat
   (38.94% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Macleod
   (9.54% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


31/08/19 A.S.
99.225.32.21
It may be of academic interest that while notionally top of the Con-vote heap in 2011, Bow River fell 3.5% points back of Battle River-Crowfoot in 2015--some might blame open-seatdom, but it's likelier because it's more within the exurban-Calgary orbit, which gave some token bump to the Justin Liberals. (In fact, in the rapidly-growing Conrich poll, ‘Skyview spillover’ pushed the Libs over 40%.) Still, the Con base is elevated enough to invite PPC-second-place speculation--though as a measure of how that *could* wind up blown out of proportion, this is where, provincially, Wildrose-turned-Free Conservative leader Derek Fildebrandt (the closest thing to a provincial PPC proxy) ran; and he only got 7% of the vote.
18/07/19 Laurence Putnam
96.53.49.70
Ridings like this really beg the question: what exactly would a Liberal or NDP candidate have to do to win?
03/03/19 Sam
109.150.190.5
The Conservatives won 78% last time, and barring the biggest upset in years, which won't happen with Martin Shields, they will win again.
18/02/19 JW
45.41.168.96
Rural Aberta riding. Enough said.



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