Election Prediction Project

Souris-Moose Mountain
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:00:16

Constituency Profile


Ames-Sinclair, Javin

Hicks, Ashlee

Kitchen, Robert

Mergel, Judy

Patron, Travis

Zajac, Phillip


Robert Gordon Kitchen

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



42348.52 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Robert Gordon Kitchen 2631570.10%
Vicky O'Dell 513113.70%
Steven Bebbington 507613.50%
Bob Deptuck 9942.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Souris-Moose Mountain
   (93.17% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (6.64% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.19% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

14/09/19 A.S.
Hey, there *has* been an interesting second-place finish here in the history of the modern CPC--that is, in 2004, when they got 37%, less than 10 points over ex-Premier (and rejected CPC candidate) Grant Devine running as an independent. But the last three elections have seen 70%+ finishes. Case closed.
14/09/19 MF
One of the five worst ridings in Canada for the LPC in 2015, it's hard to believe that Souris-Moose Mountain went LIBERAL in 1993 (albeit with 32% of the vote) - but like rural Saskatchewan in general shifted rightward in the 1990s and became a Reform/Alliance/Conservative seat (with former Premier Grant Devine's independent run making things interesting in 2004). The Conservatives have received over 70% in every election since 2008 - and should have no problem doing so again. The only question is will anyone else receive even 10%?
10/04/19 Laurence Putnam
The race for second place is ON!
Unfortunately for everyone but the Conservative candidate, that is the only race that is on.
24/02/19 Sam
Easily the safest riding in Saskatchewan, Robert Gordon Kitchen did very well for a first time candidate last time round, being the best performing Conservative outside Alberta. If the Conservatives have such strength in the riding, it is difficult to see why it would go anyway.
23/02/19 M. Lunn
Rural Saskatchewan has at both provincial and federal level become solidly conservative over the last 15 years so don't see that changing.

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