Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:00:08

Constituency Profile


Friesen, Mark

Muggli, Tracy

Ritchie, Erika

Sinclair, Neil

Waugh, Kevin


Kevin Waugh

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



335.90 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kevin Waugh 1916641.60%
Scott Bell 1390930.20%
Tracy Muggli 1216526.40%
Mark Bigland-Pritchard 8461.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 430.12%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (93.13% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (6.87% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

06/10/19 R.O.
This riding was predicted to go ndp in 2015, funny how much has changed in the years since. Kevin Waugh should be able to hold the riding this year as the cpc polling well in Saskatchewan.
14/09/19 A.S.
That the NDP finished closer to the hitherto-no-hope LPC than CPC in '15 is telling--and the same Lib's running, which *might* mean second-place dynamic in that direction this time. Which, together with suburban growth and, of course, native-son Scheer, only further enables Waugh.
18/07/19 Laurence Putnam
There simply exists no foundational basis to believe the Tories would suddenly lose this riding, which they already hold, in an election led by a Saskatchewan leader. The NDP are the only natural threat here and under Singh that's not going to happen.
07/07/19 Billy P.
Should be no contest. I live in this riding and have no party affiliation. Waugh is very well liked, hard working, and visible. Liberals ran a very good candidate last time, and I expect most of her support to go to PC's. Still 100% in my predictions on this site, and I think this one is easy.
01/03/19 Sam
This is obviously not as safe as the rural Saskatchewan ridings for the Conservatives, but in 2015 they did far better than expected here despite the open seat. With the Conservatives doing better in the West, they should hold this.
28/02/19 Dr.Bear
Another seat where the Liberals appeared to have played spoiler to the NDP in Saskatchewan. Currently the NDP are going nowhere in their birth province. Unless things chance, Team Orange will be kicked out of the prairies. The question is, can the Liberals capitalize on former NDP support to oust the incumbent Conservative. I would say no, at the moment, however we are still many months away and things can (and will) change.

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