|Not exactly what I missed? Cal mentioned the rise of the PPC in a post a few days ago. Just how big of a majority is he predicting for prime minister Max Bernier?|
He got the collapse of the Liberals somewhat a collapse would be the ten to fifteen point drop that should have happened if the NDP could inspire people to leave the Libs like Jack Layton did.
Sure the Conservative campaign has been uninspiring but it has also been relatively mistake free and places like Regina Saskatchewan will want as many seats in government as they can.
Im not saying it is a cakewalk but cue the music
|The rise of PPC the collapse of liberals and a dreadful CPC campaign make this an exciting riding to watch.|
|The cpc almost won this riding in 2015 and then Erin Weir ran into trouble with the ndp in Ottawa. If he had turned into a popular incumbent they might have had a chance to keep the riding as its urban Regina . but with no incumbent and the cpc polling well in Saskatchewan , it does seem likely to go cpc.|
|This should be any easy pickup for the Conservatives. The only place in Saskatchewan where a Liberal could win is in the far north with the heavy native vote.|
|The fact that Erin Weir only barely won despite redistribution that supposedly favoured NDP representation should have been an ominous sign in and of itself--of course, the subsequent circumstances surrounding Weir (and, moreover, provincial-federal NDP relations) haven't helped matters a bit. Though if one reads between the 2015 lines, it was really Justin bottom-feeding, which took from *both* sides but slightly more from the NDP, that was to blame; so given how '15's end result bluffed into a 3-way marginal, no wonder some are calling this for the Libs. But that'd also require thoroughly baking the NDP's a dead duck; unite behind the Libs narrative into non-Goodale Regina--even accounting for Weirgate or Jagmeet backlash, that seems a stretch. Plus, the 35% CPC got in '15 isn't necessarily a ceiling--they got 44% within these boundaries in '11; and in neither case did they have the federal leader next door. And for all one knows, disgruntled Weirites might galvanize into a sod-you anti-NDP NDP vote--plug your nose and pretend it's Erin Weir's CCF, that sort of thing...|
|This should be an easy Conservative pickup. The local NDPers are boiling mad about Weir's kangaroo court conviction and summary expulsion. Besides, the much more successful provincial NDP has never liked playing second fiddle to the federal party. Justin is toxic in the West, period.|
Of course all bets are off if Scheer remains an inert object. That leaves an opening for the Greens and the PPC.
|With the NDP struggling enormously in this riding in particular, I expect the Liberals to pick up a bunch of normally-NDP voters and overtake the Conservatives.|
|With the unusual dynamic and tension with Erin Weir supporters and the NDP - I expect strategic voting to put Winter Fedyk slightly over the top. Warren Steinley is putting the work in but hes tainted with falling Sask Party popularity in Regina. I fully expect the Liberals to come up the middle. h|
|Erin Weir announced today that he will not be running for re-election. He says he does not want to divide the non-Conservative vote:|
|Conservative pickup. Erin Weir has been discredited by the federal NDP, and that may interestingly help him IF he runs as an independent. He can distance himself from Singh, who isn't particularly popular here, but at the same time all that will do is split the vote in favour of the CPC. The official NDP candidate will likely drop big time, Weir or no Weir.|
It also helps that Scheer is next door and can probably rely on coattails to win across Regina. It also helps that Trudeau is toxic here and the Conservatives represent the best chance to take them down. Hence, the blue team should pick this back up...along with possibly every other Saskatchewan seat.
|I suspect Weir would have had trouble holding the riding anyway, but with all the drama that has come out of this, there's no doubt he is scathed. Whether he wins back his nomination and runs with a cloud over his head (apparently the local riding has cleared him to run) or runs as an independent, or doesn't run at all and lets a new candidate, no longer an incumbent run in his place, the NDP is mortally wounded here. The national campaign is in trouble. The Tories are looking to rebound anyway, and with a Saskatchewan leader no less. I don't see any path back to Ottawa for the NDP candidate, whoever that ends up being.|
|The events surrounding Erin Weir make a Conservative gain here highly likely, and even if he didn't run as an independent they are still the favourites; Regina is the city of their leader and they were gaining in the Prairies anyway.|
|With Erin Weir likely to run again and split the NDP vote, I expect the Conservatives to pick this up.|
|Erin Weir is likely going to run as an independent splitting the NDP vote.|