Election Prediction Project

Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:59:43

Constituency Profile


Cook-Searson, Tammy

Jolibois, Georgina

Kraynick, Sarah

Perrault, Jerome

Vidal, Gary


Georgina Jolibois

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



304710.55 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Georgina Jolibois 1031934.20%
Lawrence Joseph 1023733.90%
Rob Clarke ** 910530.10%
Warren Koch 5521.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River
   (99.99% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Prince Albert
   (0.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Before the NDP rise during this campaign I had them losing here. With the NDP rise this year I can see holding on here.
19/10/19 R.O.
Not saying an ndp hold isn’t possible here but I couldn’t rule out a cpc win either. This riding is very much a swing riding and had been cpc in 2004, 2008 and 2011 elections. The southern farm belt and Meadow Lake area would still more than likely go cpc. New cpc candidate Gary Vidal had been the mayor of Meadow Lake which is the largest community in the riding. The ndp and liberals tend to focus there campaigns on the northern half of the riding and many first nation communities. Ndp mp Georgina Jolibois was first elected in 2015 and hasn’t really done anything in Ottawa to stand out in my view. Liberals have a new candidate this year as Tammy Cook Searson is running for them. Also despite the riding being close in 2015 no party leaders have visited the riding so far , likely due to its remote location.
12/10/19 Cal
Campaigns matter and nowhere more than here.
11/10/19 Ontario Voter
The polls have the NDP gaining in the prairies and have now surpassed the Liberals in Saskatchewan where they are in the mid 20s. It’s clear the Liberals will not be able to take this and probably won’t come second this time either. Count on the NDP to gain enough Liberal votes from last time to hold this.
05/10/19 Physastr Master
I don't know what will happen here, but it won't go Liberal. Liberal support among aboriginal communities has almost halved since last election, and this riding is 70% aboriginal, not to mention the fact that they're cratering in Saskatchewan even worse than the NDP are. It looks like nationally that aboriginal support is going green rather than breaking the CPC-NDP deadlock here, so I think this riding comes down to whether the green votes hold up. If they stay green, this will go conservative, as the Conservative tide in the non-aboriginal sections of this riding will sweep out the NDP. If the green vote strategically collapses to the NDP, Georgina will hold on. Therefore I think this should stay TCTC until we have a better idea where national trends are going.
21/09/19 HAS
My first thought was that this one would go to the Liberals but since the Trudeau embarrassment I have to change my prediction. The NDP will be tough but the Conservatives will complete the sweep of Saskatchewan when they win this one.
15/09/19 Billy P.
This is a one of the TOUGH TWO in Sask. Squeaker last year for NDP over the Liberal. The quality of the Liberal candidate this year might give them the edge with the NDP support waning. Imagine Sask. sending 2 LIBERALS to Ottawa this election. As of now this riding is too close to call.
14/09/19 A.S.
The thing to remember here is: in 2015, only 4 points and 1200 votes separated the top 3 finishers. (In fact, consider this bizarre circumstance: the Libs won the E-day and special-ballot polls, and CPC won the advance polls--but the NDP won the final tally!) Therefore, in Scheer's Sask, we're really looking at a first-to-third-and-back-to-first CPC likelihood--but also, in a seat like this, it *really* depends upon turnout in the remotest FN reaches, and whether it galvanizes in one direction or the other. Keeping in mind that btw/ 2011 and 2015, the total number of votes cast here jumped by nearly 50%--when the political left speaks in terms of ‘turnout matters’, they aren't kidding (as the political right's long known through galvanizing the evangelical vote)
14/09/19 R.O.
Tough one to predict , riding saw a surge in turnout in 2015 which mostly benefitted the liberals . but that may have been a one time event and makes race tough to predict with new candidates for liberals and cpc. Riding also burns thru mp’s rather quickly so could very easily elect a new one this year.
10/09/19 Laurence Putnam
After Wascana, this is the only other riding in the province that might possibly return a non-Conservative.
The NDP are weak and getting weaker. The incumbent has failed to distinguish herself in Ottawa in any noteworthy way. Province-wide the NDP is polling in the teens. They're going to need a lot of Liberal votes from last time to stay afloat here. Problem there is the Liberals have a pretty good candidate. Probably not good enough to win if they couldn't win it last time, but maybe good enough to play spoiler to the NDP.
The Tories need only give this riding a nudge and it should be in their column. They know that and they have the money and organization to throw behind it to do so. In contrast, the NDP will have to throw everything at this to try and merely hold it, and they don't have much to throw. A riding this remote isn't likely to see much of the leader, either.
The Liberal brand is mostly toxic on the prairies. The local candidate in ridings like this can get past that to some degree - but her personal influence will only go so far.
I think the smart money is on team blue.
27/02/19 Sam
This riding is one of the most contested in Canada; all three major parties have narrowly won it at one of the last four elections. Whereas the NDP have the benefit of the incumbency, Jolibois, whilst likeable and caring, has not been the most effective MP throughout her time in office. Given this riding has diverse needs and a high indigenous population, the Liberal candidate appears to be strong, but that could be offset by the relatively high unpopularity of the Liberals in rural Saskatchewan. The Conservatives also came a very close third last time and may well win the riding again.
23/02/19 First Citizen
The Liberal candidate is Tammy Cook-Searson a very popular First Nation leader in Laronge. The NDP is losing support in the north and the present MP has not been very strong.

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