Election Prediction Project

Winnipeg South
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:06:07

Constituency Profile


Bettess, Paul

Duguid, Terry

Lapointe, Jean-Paul

Maher, Melanie

Nasiri, Mirwais


Terry Duguid

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



102.15 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Terry Duguid 2809658.30%
Gordon Giesbrecht 1670934.70%
Brianne Goertzen 24045.00%
Adam Smith 9902.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Winnipeg South
   (92.24% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Saint Boniface
   (7.76% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Not much being said about this riding, I think the Liberals hold on here.
17/10/19 R.O.
This riding hasn’t got much attention so I wanted to look at the race here in more detail. In 2015 it was a vacant riding as the cpc mp didn’t run again and Terry Duguid got elected for the liberals. looking back its had the history of being a swing riding , conservative from 2006-2011 and liberal from 1993-2004. The riding itself includes the southern most part of the city of Winnipeg , provincially this area mostly voted for the pc party. the conservatives have an entirely new candidate this year , Melanie Maher was nominated earlier this year. I’m not sure if any leaders have held events specifically in this riding but Scheer, Singh and Trudeau have all been to Winnipeg so far. I suspect it will be a close result here on election night.
14/09/19 R.O.
Typically been a swing riding as it had been conservative not that long ago , tough one to call , seems early to make a solid prediction here .
12/09/19 A.S.
There's a strong Con history here; but at the moment, Duguid rules a presently rubber-stampy-looking grand coalition encompassing what might be referred to ‘Pallister Liberals’ as well as those at the other end (the NDP only hit *5%* in 2015)
31/03/19 Craig
2015 was a very strong result for the Liberals here (and across Winnipeg), and while SNC-Lavalin is not helping them, this is a fairly well educated and fast-growing riding. Terry Duguid is pretty well-liked here too. That may keep this in the Liberal column, although the Conservatives will likely gain significant vote share.
That said, this has been a bellwether seat recently, and that should continue. Hence, I'd say too close or too early to call.
This riding is not very safe, but the Liberals won comfortably enough last time with nearly 60%. Winnipeg swung hard to the Liberals last time so it will naturally need a large swing back, which doesn't look to be happening. Terry Duguid is a noticeable face in the community and has no major detractors, which will only help the Liberals.

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