Dwellings occupied by usual residents:
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
|Pat Martin **
2011 Results (redistributed)
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
(100% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
|NDP win here tomorrow. The results last time were based more on Pat Martin than anything else.|
|The Liberal call here is a mistake. 2015 was a big outlier - with an NDP riding association and core weary of Martin and his antics, and happy to sit out or even vote Liberal. This against the backdrop of Get rid of Harper sentiment nationally. RFO has done little to keep the support of core NDP supporters, who are happy to have a strong candidate in Gazan. There won't be many NDP pickups on the 21st. This will be one of them.|
|To add to the optimistic polls for the NDP, probe research has been following the trends in Winnipeg since December 2018, and since then they have NDP support up 7% (and nearly doubling since 2015), and LPC support down 10%, (a 40% drop relative to 2015). In what they call Winnipeg's core (i.e. Winnipeg Centre + a sliver of CharleswoodSt. JamesAssiniboiaHeadingley), they have the NDP up 11 points over the Liberals, 42-31. Do I believe this? not entirely, Probe seems to be overestimating the NDP as least as much as Mainstreet riding polls seem to be underestimating them relative to provincial polls. But if we're going to take a riding-level poll in Windsor West as proof that Brian Masse is in trouble, this basically-riding-level poll should at least serve as proof that the NDP is competitive here.|
|The Winnipeg Free Press published the results of a Probe Research poll indicating an NDP surge in Winnipeg, and particularly in Winnipeg Centre.|
|A poll from the Winnipeg Free Press shows the Liberals down 20 points in Winnipeg from 2015 while the NDP are up 10 points. The poll shows the NDP leading in the core of Winnipeg 42% to the Liberals 31% which contains a majority of this riding. I think Leah Gazan will take this back if those numbers are accurate. Its clear her campaign has the most momentum.|
|I worked in the last election in a polling station, and a lot of indigenous people were voting for the first time. I think Robert-Falcon Ouelette was a reason for that. It was inspiring to see the turnout in my riding shoot up from one of the lowest in the country in 2011 to the middle of the pack in 2015.|
This time, though, two strong indigenous candidates are running, and I am not sure that Ouelette will carry the day. He's done a good job of keeping in touch with his constituents, but he has seemed awkward at times in the house, and his NDP opponent Leah Gazan has a strong resume and gave a fiery Labour Day speech on the Legislature steps that had the crowd roaring their approval. I'd put the odds as slightly in her favour this time.
|When I took a walk to buy some groceries today, I noticed far more signs for Leah Gazan in that short stretch than for Falcon. Granted, it's not representative of the whole riding, but if it is, it is a mirror image of the 2015 campaign. Then challenger Falcon-Ouelette had nearly as many signs as then-MP Pat Martin (this was before Martin's well-known outburst at the downtown forum) and you could tell on that basis that the seat was in play for the Liberals.|
Leah Gazan is an amazing candidate. Everyone I've spoken to likes her. She also put together a campaign team that secured her nomination while running against a long time former NDP Cabinet minister. That nomination meeting filled an old church on a beautiful spring Sunday afternoon. Her campaign is strong enough to swim against whatever currents may be dragging down the party elsewhere. With the enthusiasm for her candidacy and organization of her campaign, I am confident in predicting that this riding will turn orange next month.
|I still find the massive swing to the Liberals in 2015 in this riding bizarre. This is not like the Quebec seats in 2011 that went NDP for the first time ever. This is one of the ridings with the highest poverty rates in the entire country, where the NDP have long dominated federally and provincially, and where they have a very formidable machine. Even in a bad year for the party nationally, you'd think the NDP would be competitive here. However the size of the Liberals win in 2015, combined with the cratering poll numbers of the NDP, suggest the NDP are a long shot in a riding they should dominate.|
|What seemed to be shoot-from-the-lip survival pluses on Pat Martin's part abruptly became minuses in '15--but here's a case where Wab Kinew exceeding expectations on the Manitoba hustings might have a federal echo (even if limited by overall trends against the federal NDP, sort of like Maureen Hemphill and Judy W-L in 1993). That is, if it's not cancelled out by the Wolseley Greens--which'd mean the two left opposition forces cancelling out one another, As the salty-tongued Pat Martin might've put it, none of this would be happening had the Liberals minded their own Falcon business...|
|If there is an NDP pick-up to be had in Manitoba, and I'd go so far as to say in all of Western Canada for that matter, this would be the one. Whether the NDP here locally can swim against the overall tide remains to be seen although they should have a strong machine here. |
Al that said - At the risk of dashing NDP hopes I think its obvious to state that Pat Martin had a following of his own that the next candidate can't assume will accrue to them automatically. In this particular year, I would think the NDP while competitive in this riding will end up with the short end of the stick on election night.
|Going to stick with my Liberal call, but the Greens seem to be in the mid-teens in the Prairies; I suspect that won't hold for the real thing, but it's still strong. It'll be interesting to see how well they do in Wolseley, their top target in Manitoba provincially and an open seat in the upcoming election - it would seem as if this is the best Green riding in Manitoba. As a result, the Greens may do very well, taking a lot of votes from the NDP and Liberals, but not winning. In my view, the likely effect of this would be to keep the seat in Liberal hands - this isn't like Vancouver Island, this is Liberal Winnipeg, where the Greens would take enough votes from the NDP to deny them a seat where the Liberal vote share would be normally enough for the NDP to gain. This seems likely with Leah Gazan being an average, unknown Dipper. Robert-Falcon Ouellette doesn't seem a particularly good MP either, but there's only so much choice available.|
|Falcon-Ouellette was able to beat long-term NDP MP Pat Martin by a nearly 2-1 margin in 2015. Although the Liberals are down in this part of the country compared to 2015, the NDP aren't doing that well, either, so I'm not sure if the new NDP candidate Leah Gazan has enough name recognition to win. Leaning Liberal for now, but could change later.|
|Although Pat Martin and the NDP got crushed here in 2015, the Liberals and specifically Ouellette have gotten very unpopular. Ouellette's silence in parliament during the Pipeline and Canada Post Strike/Back-to-Work legislation are anathema positions for Winnipeg Centre's demographics. The NDP would win by around 5%.|
|Tough riding to call. This is naturally an NDP riding, but the 2015 win was a romp for the Liberals in a very surprising result. It's unclear if that is now a trend or a blip. |
Demographically, this should favour the NDP as a very working class (to working poor) riding and only modest gentrification compared to other major cities, plus a large Indigenous population that has soured on the Liberals with the SNC-Lavalin saga and Wilson-Raybould demotion. That said, even though the Conservatives are irrelevant here, the words strategic voting may still come up...
|The scale of the Liberal win here makes it seem as if this is now firmly in their column; although the NDP's Pat Martin was embroiled in controversy, to go from safe NDP to Liberal landslide requires more. Robert-Falcon Ouellette has been a quiet but odd MP in the Commons, but his actions are far less than the actions of Ouellette. This is a likely Liberal hold.|