Election Prediction Project

Saint Boniface-Saint Vital
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:05:44

Constituency Profile


Baljeet, Sharma

Caron, Rejeanne

Cross, Billie

Linnick, Ben

McAllister, Adam

Vandal, Dan


Dan Vandal

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



63.43 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Dan Vandal 2853058.40%
François Catellier 1400528.70%
Erin Selby 516910.60%
Glenn Zaretski 11192.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Saint Boniface
   (98.12% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Winnipeg South
   (1.88% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
I think the Liberals will be able to hold onto this riding.
12/09/19 A.S.
This, even more than WSC, may lay claim to being the heartland of Winnipeg Liberalism--that is, thanks to its containing the historic heart of Winnipeg's Francophone community; basically, it would be Winnipeg's answer to Ottawa-Vanier, except that Liberalism is shakier and less baked-into Winnipeg's political culture so St Bon's allegiances have wavered in weak Liberal times (a Tory term under Mulroney, two under Harper). Say what you will, but this isn't a ‘weak Liberal time’ in quite that sense.
14/06/19 Laurence Putnam
With the benefits of incumbency, a francophone base, and a well oiled Liberal machine in the riding, the Liberals still have the upper hand; in the 2011 disaster they were still over 30% here.
But with overall anger toward Trudeau on the prairies I would say that this seat has the capacity to surprise. While the Liberals should win it, any assumption of that could prove costly.
While I predict a Liberal win, I also sense it will be closer than most people expect.
31/03/19 Craig
Regarding Trudeau having 70% disapproval in the Prairies: that may be true, but it is also more focused in rural areas and in Saskatchewan and Alberta. Winnipeg has held up better for them, although I'm sure the margin of victory will come down from the big win in 2015. Not having Shelly Glover will hurt the CPC too (she's a big reason they won in 2008 and 2011).
The key will be in the southern part of the riding, south of Fermor Avenue - can the Conservatives win it back? The northern part is solid Liberal territory. I'd say advantage Liberals here.
31/03/19 Sam
I understand @seasaw's point, but I think in Saint Boniface, an urban, Francophone, recently Liberal except during their 2008 and 2011 problems, and with a dedicated incumbent, this stays Liberal.
03/03/19 seasaw
Wouldn't be so quick to call this for the Liberals. With Trudeau's future uncertain and close to 7 out of 10 people in the prairies calling for his resignation, it's way too premature to call this for the Liberals
23/02/19 M. Lunn
This went pretty solidly Liberal and the northern half generally votes for progressive parties so with NDP being so weak, it will go solidly Liberal. Depending on how campaign goes, Tories may win many polls in the southern half, but unless the Tories pull into a solid lead, I am calling this for the Liberals.

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