Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:05:41

Constituency Profile


Falk, Ted

Gibson, Janine G.

Kirczenow, Trevor

McGee, Erin

Sturby, Wayne


Ted Falk

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



18100.37 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ted Falk ** 2508656.10%
Terry Hayward 1550934.70%
Les Lilley 23715.30%
Jeff Wheeldon 17794.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 6251.79%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (95.98% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (4.02% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Another CPC hold in rural Manitoba with Ted Falk getting re-elected.
18/09/19 R.O.
Being rural Manitoba the cpc incumbent Ted falk is likely to hold onto this one .
13/09/19 A.S.
Incredibly, this seat returned a Liberal as recently as 1993-2000--proof of how the riding's Metis settlements were once more than enough to override the Steinbach Mennonites; though of course, a disunited right also helped. The Metis clout was still evident in the Libs managing a third of the vote in '15...unfortunately, against a now-united right. And for those holding out hope for a re-disunite: unfortunately, Steinbach-style religious-cons aren't the sort to go for PPC libertarianism.
22/07/19 Laurence Putnam
I miss Vic Toews sharp wit and blunt speaking manner, but the more mild mannered Ted Falk will nevertheless be re-elected with ease.
26/03/19 Sam
This is a Conservative stronghold which they should win again. There's little chance of a gain for any other party.
23/02/19 M. Lunn
Rural Manitoba = Easy Tory hold.

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