Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:05:38

Constituency Profile


Archer, Aaron

Bergen, Candice

Dondo, Jerome

Eert, Beverley

Friesen, Cindy

Werbiski, Ken


Candice Bergen

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



12509.09 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Candice Bergen ** 2506060.80%
Ken Werbiski 1062125.80%
Dean Harder 25546.20%
Beverley Eert 16374.00%
Jerome Dondo 13153.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 8092.38%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (94.54% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (5.27% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.19% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Easy CPC hold. Hoeppner's a minister of Scheer becomes prime minister.
09/10/19 R.O.
Candice Bergen has been mp of this riding since 2008, Mostly rural riding that has historically been conservative.
13/09/19 A.S.
What's interesting is how Justinmania's 2015 Manitoba reach even extended into Portage-Lisgar--the Liberals managed over a quarter of the vote in a seat where no opposition party even mage 10% in 2011, even winning central Portage La Prairie and reclaiming a few Metis settlements. (If Brandon and PLP were somehow hooked together into a seat, it could have gone Liberal.) But then there's the rest of the seat, including the rapidly growing GigaCon German/Mennonite settlement around Morden-Winkler, which has overtaken PLP as the largest urban node in the riding--*that's* why Portage-Lisgar's still top of the Manitoba CPC heap. Just as her namesake grew up with ventriloquist dummies in the household, Bergen's well set to serve another term under her ventriloquist-dummy of a leader.
18/07/19 Laurence Putnam
A popular long-term incumbent in an already naturally conservative area will run up her numbers big time in a rebound election for the Tories.
24/02/19 Sam
This was the best riding in Manitoba for the Conservatives last time, and their vote share in Manitoba has held up strongly. There are some deep Liberal pockets in the seat, but the riding as a whole still went 60% Conservative in the previous election. This could well be a riding that contributes moreso to any increase in Conservative vote share as they shore up support in more rural ridings.
23/02/19 M. Lunn
One of the safest Tory ridings outside Alberta, so I expect this to easily stay Tory.

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