Election Prediction Project

Kildonan-St. Paul
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:05:36

Constituency Profile


Dancho, Raquel

Deck, Martin

Hiebert, Eduard

Katerynuk, Spencer

Krosney, Evan

Mihychuk, MaryAnn

Reed, Rylan


MaryAnn Mihychuk

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



170.46 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

MaryAnn Mihychuk 1871742.70%
Jim Bell 1747839.80%
Suzanne Hrynyk 627014.30%
Steven Stairs 7831.80%
David Reimer 4851.10%
Eduard Walter Hiebert 1420.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3480.95%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Kildonan-St. Paul
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
I'm predicting every riding and may miss out on a few ridings but here I think I'll be right. The CPC will win here tomorrow.
07/10/19 R.O.
Despite there being a liberal incumbent here and a rookie cpc candidate . the odds seem to favour Rachel Dancho at this point as polling for western Canada generally favours the conservatives and this riding had mostly been cpc in the past.
12/09/19 A.S.
Even if the margin last time was narrow and even if MAM was a dud in cabinet, I do wonder whether this is so clear a CPC pickup as it might have seemed last spring. Or if it still is, it'd be more on generic raising-all-ships ‘Scheer's Prairies’ grounds--and it'd seem peculiar if the NE part of Winnipeg was its only Conservative part. (But even weirder if it were *only* Elmwood-Transcona.)
12/04/19 Sam
With the chance of a Liberal majority gone for the foreseeable future, these ridings which they would only hold in such a situation, are now in the Conservative column. If the Liberals want to remain the largest party, they're better off maximising their resources to hold Charleswood and Winnipeg Centre rather than here. The Liberal MP here has not had the best term, being embarassed as Labour minister and having half of her responsibility transferred to Jean-Yves Duclos, and is of little help to them here.
03/04/19 Stevo
Near certain Conservative take-back. The lucky Liberal elected in 2015 hasn't exactly stood out, even in Cabinet. Nor has she been an outspoken maverick like Wayne Long who might win again based on personal popularity.
01/04/19 Craig
Of the Winnipeg-area Liberal seats, this is definitely the most marginal of them. In fact, the combination of working-class Kildonan and suburban/exurban St. Paul is a rather odd one for a Liberal riding in this era, but there was a lot of strategic voting in 2015. Mihychuk won't likely survive though with all that has gone on.
With the Conservatives up in the polls in the eastern Prairies, some seats will fall, and this is the lowest hanging fruit. SNC-Lavalin may also help keep some NDP voters from switching like they did in 2015, although that may not matter too much. All and all, this should flip back blue.
27/03/19 Laurence Putnam
I think given current polling on the prairies, which has been consistent for some time, one must assume that the Conservatives will win at least one Winnipeg-area seat...and if they are going to win one, this is the likeliest. Not a lot of NDP support to shore up Liberal votes in this riding. Good chances in Elmwood-Transcona Charleswood as well, but this one should be a gimme.
03/03/19 Sam
This riding has an exurban element to it, which is a major factor in allowing both parties to compete; there are plenty of swing voters. Maryann Mihychuk hasn't had great press during her time but now she's no longer a Minister the effect of that may be reduced, whereas Raquel Dancho isn't entirely the best fit here but is still a credible Conservative candidate who can compete. Given that the Conservatives are however gaining in the Prairies, she is still vulnerable and did not win very comfortably last time. All of this amounts to another competitive race.

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