Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:05:24

Constituency Profile


Blaikie, Daniel

Gautron, Noel

Malabar, Jennifer

Manweiler, Kelly

Toet, Lawrence


Daniel Blaikie

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



49.62 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Daniel Blaikie 1470934.10%
Lawrence Toet ** 1464834.00%
Andrea Richardson-Lipon 1271329.50%
Kim Parke 10162.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 70.02%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (96.62% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Kildonan-St. Paul
   (3.28% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Saint Boniface
   (0.1% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Before the NDP surge I could have seen this riding going to another party but I think Blaikie gets in again here.
20/10/19 Former Transcona Resident
Last election I predicted Bill Blaikie (sorry I mean Daniel). And that was when the race was truly close. All of the same factors are in play now except that the son of a preacher man is the incumbent. And just as it does not take two civil servant pensioners to change a lightbulb, it should only take one electrician to change this one. Daniel Blaikie should win and increase the talent pool the NDP are sending from wading to shallow. Interesting to see my former province and how its NDP winners are chosen. One is the son of a politician. And the other (Niki Ashton), the daughter. What talent! Talent sine line! Should the NDP caucus meeting ever require a power bar, I am sure they can count on Daniel to have one nearby. Cheers from a glad-to-be former resident!
18/10/19 Nick M.
NDP wins this Riding from CPC during Junstin-Mania. Singh Surge dominating the narrative in last week of campaign. Shoe in for Blaikie
This is a hereditary riding with Blaikie name. Only Stanley Knowles has a more famous NDP name in Winnipeg.
16/10/19 PB
Fascinating race. Regionally, both the CPC and NDP are polling ahead of last election. Blaikie now has the incumbency advantage, but oddly, his biggest worry may be the complete collapse of the Liberal vote, which may leak over to Scheer before Singh. And where are the Greens pulling from? Ultimately, this probably comes down to GOTV - so advantage NDP, who can throw all their resources into E-T and Wpg Centre, while the CPC will have to divide forces among more targets: Wpg. South, Kildonan-St. Paul, and St. James. If the NDP campaign like they're 5 points behind, they can win. TCTC, but I'll say NDP.
04/10/19 Physastr Master
Probe research's Winnipeg poll has the CPC up 42-29 over the NDP in ‘Northeast Winnipeg’ (LPC 21), which they define as Elmwood-Transcona, the eastern half of Kildonan-St. Paul, and a sliver of Provencher. Since Provencher and K-SP are pretty much dead zones for the NDP, having 29% including chunks of those ridings is very good news for them. I'm not sure how that Mainstreet Poll weaves in, but Mainstreet has been consistently reporting low numbers for the NDP compared to regional averages (by 20-50% depending on the location). Probe seems to be doing the opposite, i.e. embellishing NDP support, so I don't think this riding is callable. But that Mainstreet poll certainly doesn't mean game over for the NDP here.
03/10/19 Riverdale Resident
Winnipeg Federal Polling:
LPC: 33% (+4)
CPC: 32% (-3)
NDP: 24% (+4)
GPC: 9% (-4)
PPC: 2% (+1)
Probe Research / September 26, 2019 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone
30/09/19 R.O.
Perhaps surprising numbers but a mainstreet poll has cpc candidate and former mp Lawrence Toet leading here. the surprise is the liberals are second and ndp incumbent Daniel Blaike is third .
Conservatives leading in Winnipeg and Kamloops-area ridings: Mainstreet polls
By Marco Vigliotti. Published on Sep 30, 2019 6:00am
16/09/19 Ontario Voter
I disagree with the notion that the Pallister Tories are popular here considering Jim Malloway easily held onto the provincial riding of Elmwood and the NDP deafeated the incumbent PC MLA for Transcona in the election. I think the provincial results are the only flicker of hope for the NDP to hold this riding which used to be the safest seat for them in Winnipeg. In the end I think it depends on where the Liberal votes go since I doubt they will repeat their performance last time and whether the Blaikie name still means something here.
07/09/19 A.S.
Actually, the key to Blaikie's reelection might be how the provincial election has seen estimations of the NDP going up and of the Pallister Tories going down, especially when it comes to Winnipeg--a ‘Wab Kinew honeymoon’, if you will. So, why bother kicking out the 'Peg's last remaining federal Dipper? Almost like 1993 revisited, next generation. And it's not like the re-running Toet was any sparkling light within the CPC caucus (quite the contrary, actually, given his 2015 terrorism-mailout controversy)
04/08/20 The_A_Man33
Incumbent Blakie barely won last time, NDP polling badly and Provincially with the Tories being popular here, Tory will pick this one up from NDP.
02/06/19 Marco Ricci
The last 2 contributors made some good points. Despite a large drop in Conservative support in Manitoba/Winnipeg in 2015, the Conservatives almost held this riding. The other factor is that the Trudeau Wave that swept Winnipeg gave the Liberals a strong 3rd place here, only a few points behind the NDP & Conservatives. The question is, where is that 30% Liberal vote from 2015 going to go in 2019 -- to the NDP or the Conservatives? That may determine the winner.
01/06/19 Laurence Putnam
This will be a dogfight. One must assume that Daniel Blaikie's 61 vote margin of victory has got to make him nervous. Polling-wise, the NDP looks to be dead upon arrival on the prairies...Niki Ashton is really the only safe(r) bet. Given an expected rough campaign for the NDP nationally this go around and a more than likely rebound election for the Tories, I would tend to think the Tories have the edge here at the moment. Daniel Blaikie has had four years to ensconce his incumbency here to his benefit; but he is not revered as his father was. Lawrence Toet as the former MP is pretty well an equally known quantity, so it's difficult to say if Blaikie is enjoying the advantage of incumbency.
I believe this is still very much a race; perhaps disaffected Liberals will flock back to the NDP in this riding to keep the Tories out...but after Kildonan St. Paul and Charleswood, this has got to be at least the third likeliest seat to flip back to the Tories, and now with Fletcher splitting the vote in Charleswood perhaps even second likeliest.
At the moment I think team blue has the upper hand.
16/05/19 Darren
Daniel Blaikie barely won this amid a total Conservative collapse in 2015. Elmwood aside this riding is not as blue collar working class as some would have you think and it's less and less so as the new developments in Canterbury Park, Kildonan Green and along Transcona Boulevard fill up. The demographics are not the same as when Blaikie Sr was the MP.
With no Trudeau wave this time around and a perception that outside of his Elmwood core Blaikie does nothing I think this will flip back to Conservative, but it will be close.
31/03/19 Craig
If Jagmeet Singh was not the NDP leader, I'd call this an easy NDP hold. However, right or wrong, he is not well-liked among working class voters who dominate here, and Trudeau is even more despised with the SNC-Lavalin saga. Hence, despite this having little Conservative history, I'd call this a pickup for them.
All the world over, working class voters have been trending hard to the right in the last few years. I see no reason why Transcona is any different and this is by far the worst riding in Winnipeg for the Liberals. Hence, Toet should be heading back to Parliament in October.
15/03/19 Stevo
This is the kind of riding where, if someone like Nathan Cullen were NDP leader, would go NDP by 60%. I'm still predicting an NDP win for several reasons: 1) I believe Jagmeet Singh has bottomed out in terms of support and stature. Things should improve as we approach the election and begin the campaign. 2) The Liberals are headed for, at best, a slim minority in October. Their vote will be depressed almost everywhere, and here in inner Winnipeg that's good for the NDP. 3) Conservatives needed a solid majority in 2011 to barely win here. Not going to happen this time.
03/03/19 Sam
This is obviously going to be another hard-fought campaign in Elmwood, with a rematch from last time, where Daniel Blaikie only won by 60 votes and even his surname could have well won it for him. He's the incumbent now, but it's still going to be tight, with the Conservatives gaining in the prairies. The part of the riding closest to the centre of Winnipeg could also boost the NDP enough to keep it but no party has an edge.

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