Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:04:52

Constituency Profile


Duguay, Ashley

Eastcott, Robert

Hamilton, Vanessa

Hayward, Terry

Hein, Rebecca

Lussier, Robin

Maguire, Larry

Tiessen, Bill


Larry Maguire

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



17842.36 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Larry Maguire ** 2066650.30%
Jodi Wyman 1533837.30%
Melissa Joy Wastasecoot 25766.30%
David Neufeld 25266.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 180.05%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (96.36% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (3.64% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Easy hold here in Manitoba for the CPC and Larry Maguire.
14/09/19 R.O.
Current mp Larry Maquire seems to have the advantage here , been a reliable conservative riding.
13/09/19 A.S.
Besides B-S's actually going Liberal in '93, mention must also be made of how it foretold Justinmania by coming 1.5 points of going Liberal again in the 2013 byelection--and even in 2015, the losing Liberals outpolled their 1993 winning share. And that's all by racking up the polls in Manitoba's ‘second city’. But in terms of 2019, the riding seems just a touch too Scheer-y for comfort (and even the provincial Brandon ridings stuck to the tried-and-true Tories).
19/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Brandon-Souris has had the benefit of unusually capable representation in Parliament for years with Larry Maguire provincially and federally, Merv Tweed and Rick Borotsik. It's only brief flirtation with the Liberals came in 1993 when 1/3 voters in the riding barely returned a Liberal. Most definitely Conservative.
12/04/19 Sam
This riding is a definite Conservative riding thanks to huge margins in the rural areas, and helped further by a top MP in Larry Maguire.
23/02/19 M. Lunn
While Brandon itself might be competitive depending on how things play out, the Tories should run up the margins in the rural portions thus ensuring they hold this.

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