Election Prediction Project

York South-Weston
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:58:25

Constituency Profile


Hussen, Ahmed

Racine, Gerard

Rattan, Jasveen

Tewelde, Yafet

Ward, Nicki


Ahmed Hussen

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



24.81 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ahmed Hussen 2009346.00%
Mike Sullivan ** 1328130.40%
James Robinson 839919.20%
Stephen Lepone 10412.40%
John Johnson 8922.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   York South-Weston
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Faisal Hassan 1345536.07%
Mark Demontis 1229032.95%
Laura Albanese * 1037927.83%
Grad Murray 9462.54%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3951.21%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Sans 1997 and 2011 this riding has been a Liberal 1 since 1979. I think Hussen holds on.
16/10/19 R.O.
Think Ahmed Hussen will keep this riding , despite the fact its shown some potential for the ndp and went ndp provincially in 2018. It had also been ndp in 2011 when Mike Sullivan mp however he lost in 2015 to Hussen. Singh also has not campaigned in this riding to my knowledge his stops in Toronto have mostly been in Davenport , Parkdale High Park and Toronto Danforth. However it would have been a more interesting race had Mark Demontis stayed as the cpc candidate, had been nominated but then decided not to run. He placed a close second here in the provincial election when nobody though the riding had any potential for the conservatives.
29/08/19 ohara
Ahmed Hussen is going to win bigger this time, will likely crack 50%. He receives a hero's welcome in the Somali community and is admired in many other communities for his rise to immigration minister. The real race is for second place. There's a rich history for the NDP (including David Lewis and Bob Rae as well as more recent interludes with Paul Ferreira and Mike Sullivan) but the York South-Weston NDP is today a sorry state. The infighting in the riding association may not be public news but hurts morale. In addition a respected Somali community leader who could have given Hussen a run for his money was blocked from running for the NDP and instead the nomination was handed to the weaker Yafet Tewelde. I don't know anything about the Conservative candidate in YSW (though they had a strong provincial candidate) but they might come in second by default.
05/08/20 A.S.
YSW actually has an illustrious NDP history with provincial and federal leadership representation in its background...all kind of ghostly now, though at least it's bounced back from the black hole of 20 odd years ago, and who knows about Jagmeet's poor-ethnoburban reach potential. Though as it now stands, struggling w/CPC for second is also a likelihood. With no more NDP to overthrow and a cabinet feather in his cap, Hussen looks set to build on his '15 result.
13/07/19 MF
Ahmed Hussen is a respected figure in the community and should have no problem being re-elected. York South-Weston does have the strongest NDP base outside the core but Trudeau's brand in Toronto is much stronger than that of Jagmeet Singh.
12/07/19 Sam
Whilst Yafet Tewelde is a good candidate, the gap is too much for the NDP. Polls are showing them performing poorly in Toronto, so they'll have to do much better to have any chance of taking this. That being said, this is becoming less like Humber River and more like Davenport, so maybe it won't be too far into the future this goes NDP. But this was a riding where the NDP did worse than expected in 2018 and judging by that, this should be a Liberal hold.
12/06/19 seasaw
Ahmed Hussen may not be the best Minister, he may not be a great MP, but he'll take this riding without difficulty. In my previous prediction, I expected a drop of 10% in Liberal support (it's about 7 percent), expected the Tories to pick up a point (they have), and expected the rest to go to NDP and even expected them to pick up some Green support, it seems that the Greens have gained the most, and NDP's even lost some of their support to Green. That coupled with the fact that since 1974, this riding has elected a Liberal in all but 2 elections, should make this an easy Liberal hold.
13/03/19 seasaw
While I would give the edge to the Liberals right now, this riding is far from safe for the Liberals. Ahmed Hussen has had to put his foot in his mouth on more than a few occasions, and the unknown impact of the SNC-LAVELIN scandal, plus shaky Liberal leadership, may put this riding in the orange column. Right now, there's no definitive evidence that any of the above will happen, so Liberal for now.
28/02/19 Kumar Patel
Conservatives love to pick on Minister Ahmed Hussen, but he is safe in this diverse, working class riding.

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