Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:58:10

Constituency Profile


Abati, Giovanni

Burr, Dan

Chesnik, Laura

Demarce, Leo

Hardcastle, Cheryl

Kusmierczyk, Irek


Cheryl Hardcastle

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



163.24 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Cheryl Hardcastle 2321543.50%
Jo-Anne Gignac 1465627.50%
Frank Schiller 1417726.60%
David Momotiuk 10472.00%
Laura Chesnik 2490.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2420.54%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Percy Hatfield * 2522158.4%
Mohammad Latif 1167727.04%
Remy Boulbol 35138.14%
Henry Oulevey 19094.42%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6821.86%

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
I have family in the Windsor area so I'll be following these ridings closely tomorrow night. I was interested to see the Liberals are polling 1st here. Quite interesting. I'll put this in my Liberal column for now because of the weak NDP candidate.
16/10/19 R.O.
Mainstreet released 2 polls for the city of Windsor , liberal candidate ahead in this riding according to there numbers. keep in mind its only one poll and this riding has been ndp for some time.
Masse, Pupatello in close rumble in Windsor West; Liberals first in Windsor-Tecumseh, By Jolson Lim. Published on Oct 16, 2019 12:00am
26/09/19 Craig
Things have definitely got exciting in Windsor-Tecumseh, albeit without the attention next door. The poor NDP campaign nationally and locally has given the Liberals a life preserver, especially with Unifor 444 not endorsing a single candidate. However, Irek Kusmierczyk does not have the name recognition of Sandra Pupatello which can allow him to overcome the unpopularity of the Liberal brand in this working class riding. Still, at least they aren't out of it anymore.
Could the Conservatives actually pull off the unlikely win with a vote split? I'd say that is possible, especially since the winner will likely not get above 35% of the vote with the depressed NDP and they only need a little bit from 2015 (and up to 2011 levels) to get to just under that mark. They do have demographics on their side too. It's a 3-way race down the stretch.
19/09/19 DT
With the Liberals nominating Irek, I think this riding just got a lot closer, with the Incumbant seen by many as weak, and a strong opposition candiate, combined with the national poll’s having the libs rising and NDP down, i think this riding is back in play for the first time in many years
18/09/19 Sir John A
Yes, the NDP has had a stranglehold on this riding for the past two decades. But I wouldn’t bet the house on an NDP hold. It was very telling that the largest union in Windsor, Unifor Local 444, has already endorsed both Massey and Ramsey but has not yet endorsed Hardcastle (see the Sep 17 article by Jason Viau at CBC).
The outside observer should immediately ask ‘Interesting...why?’.
The clue comes in the last line of the article: ‘When it comes to a pick in Windsor-Tecumseh, Cassidy said it’s premature, as the Liberals haven’t even had a nomination meeting yet. That vote is scheduled for Tuesday.’
Cassidy, of course, is the Local 444 president. With the Liberals now having picked Irek Kusmierczky as their candidate in this riding, it will be very interesting to see what labor does. Irek is a Windsor city councilor, elected three times...last one was a landslide. He has been a friend to labor in his council decisions (his very vocal opposition to the city outsourcing janitorial services comes to mind).
Labor may end up hedging their bets, with strong support for both Masse and Ramsey (who have done as good a job as you possibly can as MPs from the opposition bench) and a nod to the Liberals in this riding. If that is the case then this riding is very very much in play.
16/08/20 A.S.
As in 2015, the likelier victor-enabling split will be Lib-Con--whatever Jagmeet's deficiencies, Windsor is too much of a weird microclimate for all that to matter much. And the Dippers should count their blessings that the Cons are now sufficiently viable in Windsor for such splits to happen--but not (so far, at least) viable enough to be a winnably comfortable anti-socialist-horde gathering spot the way the Libs used to be. (Particularly as a lot of those old soft-Libs are no longer averse to voting NDP, as opposed to "stopping" them.)
26/06/19 ME
If the NDP continue their downward slide nationally this riding will not withstand the wave which will take the MP out. The Liberals will be in third place.
12/06/19 Craig
Windsor-Tecumseh is NOT going Liberal. Even in 2015, they finished third here, and Trudeau is extremely unpopular among working class voters who predominate here. They are more likely to get under 10% than win the seat and this should be one of the top 5 worst results for them in Ontario.
It's true that Jagmeet Singh isn't a big asset here either, but the NDP have incumbency and the labour movement on their side and my thought that they will hold on stands. If anyone WERE to upset the NDP, it would be the Conservatives, but that is unlikely.
21/05/19 seasaw
The local MP here isn't well liked and The NDP is polling poorly. Therefore, this riding is vulnerable for the NDP. The Liberals have won this riding before and are in a position to do so again. Though, the Conservatives have finished in a fairly respectable second place the past couple of elections, they have to be in a position to win 240 seats plus, which is possible but not too probable in order to win here. Liberal pick up
05/05/19 CdnTireGuy
All is not well in NDP land here.
City Council decides to fluoridate drinking water. The MP opposes the decision and sends out parliamentary lit calling for an oral health strategy instead.
Unifor puts out an all hands on deck alert to assist NDP in Essex riding instead of here.
The MP supports CAMPP and opposes the new hospital while her NDP colleagues have (privately?) signalled their support to the hospital CEO.
The MP admitted - to her credit - that she had no role to play in securing grant funding for Disaster Mitigation and Adaptation projects in the City of Windsor.
The MP has yet to address her calling Tecumseh voters stupid and her derogatory language towards her former Tecumseh Council colleagues.
Various residents report a pass-the-buck service from her office for federal matters.
Quite frankly the MP has done nothing meaningful for this riding for 4 years. No riding advocacy, no relationship building, none of the help that an MP usually tries to deliver during their time in office, no set goals or deliverables for the community.
The work of Liberal candidate Jeewen Gill and independent candidate Greg Lemay, together with a growing Green Party, will dovetail with the MP's record and allow a conservative win in this riding by purging soft NDP votes.
17/04/19 VotingCynic
Cheryl Hardcastle may not be well known but the NDP is strong here that she should return to Parliament unless the NDP melted down.
16/03/19 Sam
This is a riding that looks good for the NDP, but it looks as if most of the NDP votes have already been won. Cheryl Hardcastle isn't as good as Masse or Comartin as the other local poster @Mike said. The NDP declined here and in Essex provincially, which is not a good sign. On a good night for the Conservatives, I wouldn't put a gain past them. It's still a riding that has been NDP since 2000, and so Cheryl Hardcastle can win. There are plenty of races where the traditional party has won with everything against them, such as in Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke and Edmonton Griesbach in 2015.
16/03/19 Craig
Jagmeet Singh may not be an asset in this very blue collar area like Andrea Horwath is (although Doug Ford did help prevent them from running up the score in 2018), but the fundamentals still strongly favour the orange team.
The Liberals have collapsed in Southwestern Ontario (especially past London) due to their urban, creative class mentality which does not fly here at all. They will likely be a distant third. The Conservatives MIGHT have an opening, but they would need to consolidate some of the Liberal vote AND gain from the NDP the labour-populist vote. That seems far fetched, but in this era of working class rage, it may not be impossible? Still, the odds strongly favour the NDP.
07/03/19 Mike B
Premature to call for the NDP as we don't know the players at this stage.
The incumbent MP is felt to be the least visible among all local MPs. Local event participation and appearances are typically partisan in nature. Typically when seen, it is part of a regional partisan team approach in Brian Masse's shadow. Tracey Ramsey has established herself well on the national level, but Ms. Hardcastle doesn't have the same visibility.
While the local media remain opposed to reporting on the leaked phone call where this MP calls her municipal voters stupid and makes disrespectful remarks surrounding the elected officials she has previously served with, its existence is well known among political activists.
There is also shakiness in labour support for the incumbent following their decision to cross the picket line in the Zehrs strike a few years back.
Given the popularity of both the incumbent and the leadership of the NDP - his particular origins in the badlands of Villa Borghese aren't too far from here - this is not a lock. There is real opportunity to consolidate the vote and oust behind either the CPC or the Liberals.
Based on the numbers and the candidacy of Jeewen Gill for the Liberal Party here, that consolidator would have to be the Conservative Party. If there is a solid candidate out there, the CPC has a real shot.
22/02/19 Kumar Patel
Even if the NDP collapses nationwide, they should be able to hold the two Windsor seats.

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