Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:58:07

Constituency Profile


Ahluwalia, Birinder Singh

Ehsassi, Ali

Hillier, Richard

Kalsi, Leah

Lee, Daniel

Vettese, Sharolyn

Ziaian, Shodja


Ali Ehsassi

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



19.77 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ali Ehsassi 2451953.40%
Chungsen Leung ** 1699037.00%
Pouyan Tabasinejad 32037.00%
James Arruda 10252.20%
Birinder Singh Ahluwalia 2160.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (83.51% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   York Centre
   (16.49% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Stan Cho 1773243.63%
David Zimmer * 1081526.61%
Saman Tabasinejad 1048125.79%
Randi Ramdeen 9322.29%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 680.20%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Sans 1984 and 2011 (And those races were close) this has been a Liberal riding. Ali Ehassi will win here tomorrow.
07/10/19 dnwman
The Liberals aren’t as popular as they were here in 2015, but incumbent Ali Ehsassi remains well liked, and has had a strong presence in the community over his first term. Daniel Lee and the Conservative Party will be hurt by an anti-Doug Ford sentiment that has built up over the past year turning off many voters that went PC in 2018. NDP and Green numbers are usually very weak in this riding unless there is a total Liberal collapse, and when they perform well, the result has been a conservative seat, motivating strategic voting. Over the past 3 federal elections, Willowdale Liberals have outperformed the party’s Ontario vote percentage share by an average of 12.5 points. That spread should continue and keep this seat in the Liberal fold barring some unexpected last-minute shift.
05/08/20 A.S.
When it comes to 'demographic shifts': yes, Willowdale has a strong Jewish contingent in the NW and an increasing Chinese contingent along the eastern flank, and that'd appear to work on the Cons' behalf. But. that's mostly the homeowners. The *real* story here (and the reason why Willowdale's shrunken in geographic size over the years) is the growing North York Centre condo corridor--and the trend *there* has been leftward, even to the point of above-average-for-the-geography support for Smitherman mayorally in 2010 and Chow mayorally in 2014. A sort of subway-generated electoral cosmopolitanism. So while the Cons may have more of a star candidate here than in DVW, it still might not be enough, given the trend...
29/06/19 Sam
We can't simply look at Chungsen Leung's low margin in 2011 and assume things will stay Liberal. Elections don't work like that. Now whilst the Liberals have an edge, this is probably the part of Toronto that is the most conducive for a strong Conservative result, due to demographic shifts. In Willowdale especially, the CPC star candidate Kiseok Lee who is cabinet material could make the difference. It's a tough fight, and I wouldn't rule Ali Ehsassi out. I don't think voters are going to have gripes with him and his role in the SNC-Lavalin fallout. His greatest risk is being seen as ineffective. This is right for the TCTC column.
31/05/19 The Jackal
While I expect the CPC to pick up a few ridings in the 416 area. This won't be one of them as this only goes Conserative when they win huge majorities. Since the polls seem relatively close this riding will stay red.
22/03/19 seasaw
This riding maybe getting a lot more interesting. MP Ali Ehsassi, was one of the justice committee members who voted to shut down the SNC-LAVELIN hearings. I know some people believe that by election day this might be forgotten, and they may be right. I however, don't know if it will be that easy, especially with the way the PM has been behaving. Either way, it's premature to call it for anyone right now
11/03/19 Kumar Patel
Not sure why Don Valley North was called for the Liberals, while Willowdale is TCTC. Both ridings have a similar make up, but Willowdale is slightly more Liberal.
02/03/19 seasaw
This riding, since inception, has only gone Tory twice ( federally that is), once in 1984 and again in 2011. This time, however, we don't know what impact the scandal will have. So, we have to wait and see what happens before we can make an accurate prediction
01/03/19 Sam
There are plenty more vulnerable ridings for the Liberals than Willowdale, but it is potentially one to watch as the Conservatives will definitely want it. Daniel Lee, their candidate is a great fit for the riding against a rank and file Liberal who will be vulnerable to national trends. The Liberals won a majority here in 2015 and it is by no means settled for the Conservatives but it is a battleground that they can definitely take.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster