Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:57:41

Constituency Profile


DeVita, Peter

Fronte, Raquel

Khan, Muhammad Hassan

Kruze, Teresa

Montesano, Domenic

Sorbara, Francesco


Francesco Sorbara

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



79.84 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Francesco Sorbara 2304148.70%
Julian Fantino ** 2074643.90%
Adriana Marie Zichy 21984.60%
Anthony Gualtieri 7161.50%
Elise Boulanger 5971.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Michael Tibollo 2168750.5%
Steven Del Duca * 1374232%
Sandra Lozano 625414.56%
Michael Dipasquale 9722.26%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6091.84%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Yeah, the CPC candidate used to be a host on TSN back in the day. Still I don't think that will help the CPC here. Liberal hold.
25/09/19 Phil R.
Just judging by what you see and hear I think most polls have this one wrong when they say its so close. The Liberal signs seem to be papering most of the homes on major roadways and I have received two visits to my home by canvassers. The conservative candidate does not seem to have much of a presence with volunteers.
23/09/19 Nick M.
The Sobrara family doesn't lose.
Don't think they have ever lost. The loyalty is strong for the family.
08/09/19 PY
I remember Teresa Kruze (née Hergert) well from her days on TSN's ‘SportsDesk’ (before it was re-branded as ‘SportsCentre’ the year after she left the show). With her entry as the Conservative candidate, she could make this a close race, thanks to her name recognition.
The pressure will certainly be on the younger Sorbara to come through.
08/08/20 A.S.
I don't know about a York Region "least likely to flip to the Conservatives", even in the absence of Julian Fantino--though looking at how close *all* the York Region numbers are, or in Markham-Thornhill's case trending patterns (and of course, the whole Jane Philpott situation), I can see how such a conclusion can come about, i.e. it's a pretty motley lot to choose a "most likely" from. And remember that the provincial Liberal number was likely bumped up by Del Duca from what it might have been on its own gravity. OTOH and reinforced by Del Duca's current leadership run, it also proves that there's still a powerful Liberal "shadow machine"--only now, increasingly, it's about the machine, rather than "Italian Canadians go Liberal" conventional wisdom. Trivia: V-W was both the worst NDP riding provincially in 2018 and the worst federally in 2015.
10/07/19 Marco Ricci
Looking at the comments below, yes, it's true that Italians aren't as rock solid behind the Liberals as they were a couple decades ago. But as an Italian-Canadian, I would say that quite a few Italians still lean Liberal. As others said below, one of the reasons Fantino did well was because he was one of the biggest Italian names in Toronto and made history as Toronto Police Chief. It's unlikely the next Conservative candidate will have the fame in Toronto of Fantino.
And since Trudeau was here last month to apologize for the internment of Italians during World War II, that was probably good for the Liberals, too. The Conservatives haven't picked their nominee yet, so that could also benefit the Liberals. And since Ekos, Nanos, and Mainstreet are all showing the Liberals now with a 10-point lead in Ontario, I think this riding is leaning Liberal.
16/06/19 Craig
Of all the York Region ridings, this is probably the least likely to flip to the Conservatives, which might be due to overlap with Brampton (which has definitely trended leftward recently). However, that doesn't mean they are out of it. The Italian-Canadian population tends to be a swing demographic, hence Vaughan-Woodbridge should be a close result.
The Liberals do have the incumbency advantage, even though Sorbara hasn't been a very visible MP. As a result, the national campaigns should be the principal driver here. For that reason, Woodbridge should be a tossup.
03/06/19 seasaw
It was close the last time, but the last time the Tories had a candidate like Julian Fantino, this time they don't have a candidate of his caliber. This time, the Liberals have incumbency advantage. If the Liberals were to form the next government, they'll win big, if they don't, it'll be close but still a Liberal win.
08/04/19 Sam
I'm holding off calling this for now, but I suspect this will be a riding which changes hands. The York region is trending Conservative and Italian-Canadians aren't the Liberal demographic they once were.
02/04/19 The Hedonist
CON pickup.
With Libs trending down nationally, this GTA 905 region has been shown to be the true bellweather of elections federally and provincially.
This riding in particularly swung strongly for PC in the recent provincial election, a win by over 5000 votes, which was surprising. Look for this trend to continue into the next Federal election.
The candidate Sorbara recently got into local papers for refusing to use the term ‘Fishermen’ (using ‘fisherpeople’ instead) during one of his speeches at parliament. Considering how slim he won last election any further negative press to his campaign will be it.. and I predict this will be a CON pickup on election day.
24/02/19 MF
Have to say this was probably EPP's worst calls in the 2018 election - too many were relying on 30 year out of date stereotypes about Italian Canadians or 'universal swing' projections in their predictions Doug Ford is very popular among Italians and in the end it wasn't even close. This isn't to say this is going Conservative, but there is clearly a strong Conservative base in Woodbridge now, as there is in all of York Region. Woodbridge could go either Liberal or Conservative, but the days of Vaughan and GTA Italians being uniquely and especially Liberal are OVER.

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