Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:57:32

Constituency Profile


Brothers, Karin

Freeland, Chrystia

Garvie, Drew

Grant, Tim

Jean-Baptiste Vajda, Melissa

Lockwood, Aran

Rutchinski, Steve

Tingling, Helen-Claire

White, Liz


Chrystia Freeland

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



13.60 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Chrystia Freeland ** 2784949.80%
Jennifer Hollett 1598828.60%
Karim Jivraj 979017.50%
Nick Wright 16412.90%
Jesse Waslowski 2330.40%
Simon Luisi 1260.20%
Drew Garvie 1250.20%
David Berlin 1220.20%
Steve Rutchinski 510.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3790.81%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (68.73% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Toronto Centre
   (31.27% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jessica Bell 2453749.66%
Jo-Ann Davis 1089822.06%
Gillian Smith 1043121.11%
Tim Grant 26525.37%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 8522.15%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Many think of Freeland as Trudeau's best minister. She'll hold on here.
09/10/19 R.O.
Freeland must feel her riding is very safe for the liberals this year as she’s touring around Ontario. Campaigning for liberal candidates , mostly ones running in opposition held ridings. I don’t recall her doing anything similar in 2015 and she wouldn’t be doing this if her riding wasn’t leaning liberal at this point.
22/09/19 Joe
University-Rosedale is one of the most unique ridings in the country, with both affluent voters in the Rosedale community who tend to veer more Conservative/Liberal, as well as a downtown base from which the NDP and Liberals both have large bases (With the NDP having a slight edge). University Rosedale is highly urban, with suburban-lite enclaves in the Rosedale Area, which makes this riding an interesting contest between the NDP and the Liberals. As of now, polls show the Liberals with a strong lead over the NDP province wide and in this riding, but if the NDP improves in Ontario and manages to eek past the 25% mark province wide, I could see this riding becoming very competitive as the Western, more populous downtown end of the province solidifies around the NDP, with the Liberals in a strong second, and the Eastern end, which includes Rosedale, unites around the Liberals, with the Conservatives finishing in a strong second. However, Chrystia Freeland is a perfect fit for this highly educated, affluent riding, and even if Uni-Rose becomes competitive, I would still give her the edge, although there is an argument that the NDP base in University Rosedale is larger than the Liberals’. In conclusion, Chrystia Freeland is the clear favourite in this riding because of the strong Liberal support province wide, and her being well known and popular in this riding. However, if the NDP were to substantially improve their standing province wide, University-Rosedale could become very competitive, and a riding to watch. My rating? Likely Liberal.
06/09/19 MJC
This riding did go NDP provincially (like the rest of downtown Toronto...) but there's no evidence that the Liberals will be doing anywhere near that badly in Ontario in this federal election. The very high-profile Freeland is also pitch-perfect for an upscale limousine liberal intelligentsia riding like this, and I suspect would have a very good chance of holding on even if the federal Liberals collapsed in Ontario.
16/08/20 ohara
University-Rosedale, a.k.a. Professors and Plutocrats.
Chrystia Freeland, the Hillary Clinton of the north, will have no problem being re-elected. Her neoliberal and hawkish views don't endear her to progressives. However redistribution has made this riding safe for the Liberals, unless they fall behind the NDP as they did provincially. The old Trinity-Spadina NDP machine has collapsed and University-Rosedale is scrambling to find a candidate. They need someone of Linda McQuaig's calibre to even have a chance of being a serious contender right now. So far only Barry Weisleder, the kooky leader of the so-called Socialist Caucus (who does not represent the party's left or socialist wing and does nothing but embarrass the party) has expressed interest in running. The Greens, meanwhile, have an excellent and experienced candidate in Tim Grant, who is running federally this time. The rise of the Greens will mostly come at the expense of the NDP.
04/08/20 A.S.
As insufferable as Freeland might be to some, she's tailor-made for a riding named 'University-Rosedale'. And here's another case where a three-way race for second is plausible: the Cons tokenly riding on their Rosedale base, the NDP potentially hollowed out both by 'unite the left' concerns and a superior Green candidate (three-time provincial standard-bearer Tim Grant trying it federally this time).
22/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Michael Chong has built a hard-fought reputation as a principled and moderate MP who has earned and deserves the respect of partisans on all sides. He's not my favourite MP but I certainly respect him and the people of Wellington-Halton Hills do too. He will win easily.
12/07/19 Sam
I have little to add to what Seasaw and the others said. That being said, one day in the future I can see this heading to the NDP column.
08/07/19 MF
University-Rosedale has the most solid NDP voting base of the ‘downtown three’ thanks to the ‘University’ side of the riding, but the NDP gets clobbered on the ‘Rosedale’ side. The ONDP was able to take this in the OLP '18 collapse but that's almsot certainly not happening this year to the federal Liberals. Chrystia Freeland enjoys a high profile, and so far there is no NDP candidate. Plus the Liberals really dominate the ‘educated elite’ demographic and this is the most highly educated riding in Ontario (1/3 have post-graduate degrees).
04/07/19 seasaw
@M.Lunn, Let's not speculate on Chrystia Freeland's future, she is a very visible cabinet minister but she's also a major source of embarrassment. If the Liberals lose the next election, they'll be the first majority to be turfed out since 1935 and the first Liberal majority since 1878, so I don't think the Liberals are going to have someone like her to take them to the next election, they'll be rebuilding their party from outside the box. That being said, it seems like she's going to coast to victory in this one. NDP isn't doing well and are likely to finish worse than the last time, the Tories are weak in this riding and don't think the Greens will make any inroads here. Liberal hold
11/04/19 Laurence Putnam
Any objective viewing of her cringeworthy appearance on Bill Maher's show would be enough to challenge Freeland's branding as an intellectual heavyweight. Unable to articulate any justification or defence of the liberal tenets in which she dogmatically believes, I think she's been an embarrassment to the country.
I recognize that I'm in the minority however. For some reason, people love her. She's certainly well known and has been probably the most visible member of cabinet besides the PM overall. The riding is tailor-made for Liberal elites who pride themselves on rigorous intellectualism only to agree with each other on most every issue, preaching tolerance whilst mocking anyone who would disagree with them and dismissing contrary opinions as existing only in a vacuum of postgraduate degrees.
Not since the ‘Greed is Good 80's’ have the conservatives won this; indeed these days it is more likely that the NDP would win as they did provincially. For now, and likely for many years into the future this is most definitely a Liberal riding.
16/03/19 Sam
A riding that leans Liberal but isn't certain Liberal just yet. It's got students and downtown types who could vote for the NDP easily. The Liberals should win, but on a great night for the NDP they can take this.
16/03/19 Craig
Unless the Liberals collapse on a national scale (in which case the voters here will be running to the NDP like in 2018 or even the Greens?), this should be a safe seat for them. SNC-Lavalin will likely not be an issue here in this mostly affluent, urbane and very highly educated (probably the most educated in Canada) riding. It's tailor made for today's Liberals, Freeland or no Freeland. (I did mix her up with Morneau in a post for Toronto Centre, but the ridings are so similar these days...)
The Conservatives these days are despised here, and even Rosedale won't be receptive if the immigration issue comes up. Hence, I think they fall back even more - below 10% perhaps. The NDP will likely finish a distant second - unless they become the primary anti-Conservative voice.
12/03/19 seasaw
Wouldn't call this one for the Liberals yet. We don't know what will be uncovered, by the SNC-LAVELIN scandal. While I do give the Liberals a huge edge, Freeland's unconditional support for Trudeau may come back to haunt her
28/02/19 J
I don't think this seat is as safe for Freeland as people would think. Lots of voters in this riding are young Torontonians who will easily switch between the Liberals and the NDPs, perhaps even blindly. Given the provincial orange wave, a large chunk can still vote orange because they simply aren't politically engaged *enough* to know who Freeland is. Though I still see a slim Liberal win in the end.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
While not a safe Liberal riding by any means, it definitely strongly tilts their way. Rosedale should favour Liberal, but could go Tory, but the Tories are loathed in the University portion thus killing any chances here. NDP is strong in the University portion, but will get clobbered in Rosedale whereas Liberals are competitive in both. Besides Chrystia Freeland has been one of Trudeau's strongest cabinet ministers and if by some reason he loses, she would definitely be a frontrunner to secede him.
22/02/19 Kumar Patel
Safe Liberal.
Chrystia Freeland is one of the most recognizable and popular cabinet ministers.

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