Carson, Sean
	Chang, Brian
	Cragg, Bronwyn
	Fernandez, Philip
	Lester, Ryan
	Lewin, Rob
	Morneau, Bill
	Paul, Annamie
	Tavares, Jason
Incumbent:
	Bill Morneau

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			103805 93971 64291 58558 5.84 km² 17784.9/km²
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Bill Morneau	29297	57.90%
	Linda McQuaig	13467	26.60%
	Julian Di Battista	6167	12.20%
	Colin Biggin	1315	2.60%
	Jordan Stone	147	0.30%
	Mariam Ahmad	133	0.30%
	Philip Fernandez	76	0.20%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		6475	17.34%
		13617	36.46%
		14829	39.70%
		1943	5.20%
Other		486	1.30%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Toronto Centre    (99.86% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Trinity-Spadina    (0.14% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Suze Morrison	23688	53.66%
	David Morris	11986	27.15%
	Meredith Cartwright	6234	14.12%
	Adam Sommerfeld	1377	3.12%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		20733	60.48%
		4177	12.18%
		6685	19.50%
		1623	4.73%
Other		1065	3.11%

	20/10/19	Tony Ducey 24.137.73.188
I think Morneau's a weak finance minister but he'll still win this seat again tomorrow.
	27/09/19	R.O. 24.146.17.200
Some people dislike Bill Morneau especially conservatives but there is realistically little chance he loses this riding . most likely challenge would come from the ndp and there not even focused on the riding this year.
	23/09/19	Marc Cohen 204.40.194.130
This one is a bit of a sleeper. However, a more compelling race may be shaping up for second place given a seemingly low-key NDP presence and a much stronger Green campaign than I have observed previously in this area. You could see the Liberal vote hovering around 50% with the other parties fighting over the remaining 50% collectively.
	21/09/19	The Jackal 99.236.206.117
I have to call this one for the Liberals as the NDP aren’t too well here and look to be shutout of Toronto again.
	16/08/20	ohara 69.159.73.202
Suze Morrison's victory in the provincial election was impressive and Toronto Centre is the type of riding that *should* go NDP, especially with a business liberal like Morneau representing it. It'll be interesting to see if the NDP does better than in Spadina-Fort York and University-Rosedale like they did provincially. But they're just too far behind to take it federally this year. Morneau wins by default.
	04/08/20	A.S. 99.225.32.21
I do wonder how the Suze Morrison effect will spill over (however tokenly) into the federal sphere--it certainly 'reframes' the TC NDP in a streetwise fashion that doesn't necessitate Linda McQuaig's lefty-chattering-class crutch. (And even the Con candidate's a step above what was, provincially, the most hapless PC campaign leading to 2018's worst PC result in the province.) But when it comes to campaigning against Morneau in 2019, it's really more a matter of banking on 2023.
	08/07/19	MF 50.100.90.36
This was interestingly the strongest riding for the ONDP in the provincial election of the ‘downtown three’ thanks to the OLP collapse. Toronto Centre no longer includes Rosedale, has fewer high end condos than Spadina-Fort York and contains a sizeable low income and social housing component. Bill Morneau will almost certain win this by default, not because out of any loyalty to him personally (he's neither a good Cabinet minister or a strong constituency pol) but because the federal Liberal brand remains strong.
	11/04/19	Laurence Putnam 50.68.187.24
Without the high profile (but ultimately ineffective) candidacy of Linda McQuaig, this is a plain and simple coronation ceremony for Bill Morneau.
	12/03/19	seasaw 99.225.244.232
Bill Morneau hasn't been the best finance minister and his ethics have been questionable. That being said it would take an epic Liberal collapse and by that I mean worse than Campbell type collapse for him to lose here, even if the Liberals were to be reduced to single digits, this will be one of the ridings they win. Somehow, I don't think either of the above is very likely
	27/02/19	Craig 24.213.108.184
Barring a total collapse, this should be a rock-solid Liberal hold and one of their best results outside Atlantic Canada. Downtown Toronto is extremely well educated, progressive and creative class dominant and will not even touch today's Conservatives who might finish fourth behind the Greens. The NDP would be the alternative, but they'll only be a factor if the Liberals collapse (where the vote would likely coalesce behind them). If the Liberals lose the election, Freeland will be a strong candidate for being their next leader.
	24/02/19	Sam 109.150.190.148
This seat has recently been rock-solid Liberal, and unless there is a dramatic NDP landslide, which obviously really seems unlikely, Bill Morneau should be re-elected, having won with 58% of the vote last time. Morneau is additionally one of the best-known Liberals which can only help him in a safe Liberal seat - the seat isn't vulnerable enough for the other parties to try and aggressively oust him.
	24/02/19	M. Lunn 174.7.100.252
Bill Morneau may not be the sharpest finance minister, but this is a very safe Liberal riding which they only lose in a meltdown like provincially in 2018, so he should easily be re-elected. Question is does he keep his position as finance minister or not.