Election Prediction Project

Thunder Bay-Superior North
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:57:18

Constituency Profile


Achneepineskum, Anna Betty

Hajdu, Patty

Hyer, Bruce

Khanjari, Youssef

Pullia, Frank

Vodden, Alexander


Patty Hajdu

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



76852.43 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Patty Hajdu 2006945.00%
Andrew Foulds 1033923.20%
Richard Harvey 777517.40%
Bruce Hyer ** 615513.80%
Robert Skaf 2700.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2650.70%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Thunder Bay-Superior North
   (97.43% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (2.57% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Michael Gravelle * 1197339.86%
Lise Vaugeois 1116037.16%
Derek Parks 539517.96%
Amanda Moddejonge 8382.79%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 10493.78%

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Liberal hold. Hadju seem to be 1 of the better ministers in Trudeau's cabinet.
17/10/19 Frzngnrth
I agree with calling this riding for the Liberals, it would appear that is the direction that the riding is heading moving into final week. A few final thoughts regarding the ground game in TBSN. Hadju is poised to retain her position and hold the riding as the incumbent Liberal MP, however it will be on the margins. I think that one of the main things that aren’t being accounted for in the national polling is the draw of having two former Councillors running on each side. Frank Pullia in particular is well known and while he might not have the sufficient votes to overtake the Liberals in the riding (unless Scheer is able to move the national numbers such that would pull his campaign across the line), this race has been one of the strongest for the Tories in NWO in recent times and could begin to mark a shift in the progressive stronghold. The sign war in the riding and on the ground is split almost 50/50 between the Liberals and the Conservatives. Part of the reason for this stems from the fact that the Tories have fielded a candidate with some actual name recognition that lives in the riding, Richard Harvey who carried the banner for them previous was a long shot and was never going to win or make an impact. With that being said, even with the late ‘surge’ following Jagmeet, ABA for the NDP has run a sleeper campaign, no literature or knocks at the door and she will be duking it out for 3rd and 4th place with the Green candidate who was a former member of parliament with the NDP and has managed to retain a respectable portion of his core supporters.
08/10/19 Marco Ricci
Yes, Patty Hajdu is very likely to be re-elected since she won by a 2-1 margin in 2015 as an unknown, and is now better known as a cabinet minister. I don't see Bruce Hyer or the Greens being very competitive -- Hyer may outperform the usual Green vote, but he still finished 4th as a Green in 2015 when he was the incumbent. With the Greens dropping below the NDP in the latest polls, I'm not sure Hyer will even finish ahead of the NDP here.
07/10/19 NJam101
A Liberal win and cabinet minister Patty Hajdu will be re-elected. Hajdu will win again by a large margin. She is Northern Ontario's only federal cabinet minister and has become very well known and liked by many. She may not crack 50% but like last time she be far ahead of whoever comes in second.
08/09/19 John K.
If the NDP vote completely collapses here (which I think it might in Thunder Bay proper), there's a chance it goes Green (to former dipper Hyer) as opposed to Liberal. Think it might be a Green/Lib race.
22/08/20 A.S.
If Bruce Hyer's running again, that's saying something about determination and persistence--usually, one'd expect that when these party-jumpers get predictably humiliated in the following election, they're never electorally heard from again. And particularly in a constituency like TBSN, where the resource economy isn't typically a crucible for Green support--which is why even if Hyer were the most "familiar" opposition candidate, it wouldn't necessarily make him the *leading* opposition candidate. But if the Greens continue to poll high, he--and only he--could bluff into 2nd anyway; which is another way of saying that Hajdu, with her cabinet profile, looks pretty safe at the moment (albeit in a way somewhat independent from Mike Gravelle making this the only provincial Liberal hold outside of Toronto/Ottawa).
There's a *lot* of people in tbay pissed off at the liberals right now, and Hyer is the leading candidate to replace Hajdu. He could very well ride the wave of anger at the liberals in a way the CPC can't. It just remains to be seen whether the NDP can capitalize on it / focus enough to make it happen.
08/04/19 Laurence Putnam
It must be on the NDP's radar every election, even in the bad years, but it usually takes an overachieving national NDP result to bring this one home. In Liberal government years, with strong cabinet representation, this should be pretty safely in the Liberal column.
08/04/19 Sam
If a prominent local Liberal like Michael Gravelle can hold this in an awful year provincially, then in a better climate I don't see Patty Hajdu losing, even if she is less popular and longstanding than Gravelle. Thunder Bay's been kind to the Liberals recently and they should hold this.
18/03/19 Dr.Bear
Thunder Bay has been kind to the Liberals in recent election-prediction-go-rounds. Even provincially they held on to this riding. Add Hadju's strong profile as a cabinet minister and I think we can agree that this is safe Liberal turf.
28/02/19 Kumar Patel
Liberal hold unless the NDP numbers see a drastic improvement. Hajdu being a cabinet minister won't hurt either.

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