Election Prediction Project

Thunder Bay-Rainy River
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:57:14

Constituency Profile


Hartnell, Andrew

Moddejonge, Amanda

Powlowski, Marcus

Rydholm, Linda

Won, Yuk-Sem


Don Rusnak

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



32697.86 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Don Rusnak 1852344.00%
John Rafferty ** 1248329.70%
Moe Comuzzi 887621.10%
Christy Radbourne 22015.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Thunder Bay-Rainy River
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Judith Monteith-Farrell 1179336.26%
Bill Mauro * 1171236.01%
Brandon Postuma 755523.23%
John Northey 8802.71%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6762.36%

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
I think this will be the most competitive of the Thunder Bay ridings tomorrow, I think the Liberals hold on here but the CPC will finish 2nd here.
09/10/19 Frzngnrth
I would like to offer a brief submission that goes somewhat against the accepted grain that has been posted thus far.
All of the comments posted to date speak well of the general trend towards labour and progressive candidates that dominate traditional politics in NWO.
However, based on the sign campaign, this is going to come down to Liberal versus Conservatives. Several long drives around the riding including rural parts illustrate a strong conservative trend this election. Actual conservative signs far outnumber the Liberal ones.
Polowski is a strong choice for the Liberals given the political vacuum left from Don Rusnaks departure/retirement. His credentials as a doctor/solicitor are strong but his name is weak and otherwise unknown. Yuk Sem Won is also a political new comer that is known in progressive circles but I’m not sure if her political chisel is sharp enough to make a dent this time around.
As someone with no horse in this race who can’t vote in this riding this appears to be how the race is shaping up thus far on the ground.
08/10/19 R.O.
This riding has typically been a liberal / ndp swing riding . and went ndp provincially in 2018 by a tiny margin. liberal mp Dan Rusnak decided to retire after 1 term in Ottawa which was a surprise to many and forced them to find a new candidate this year. The riding hasn’t been conservative in recent history however they have a well known candidate this year. Linda Rydholm is a former longtime city councillor and school board trustee from Thunder Bay.
08/10/19 JB
This riding is going to remain Liberal but with a reduced vote share due to an incumbent not running. Thunder Bay has a lot of ‘hidden’ Liberal and progressive supporters.
Trudeau has already made one appearance here to solidify his base. Unless he’s planning another within the next 2 weeks, both Thunder Bay ridings should be reliably safe.
07/10/19 NJam101
Definitely a Liberal win. Marcus Powlowski will be the next MP. It won't be any challenge for the Liberal candidate. The NDP candidate in 2015 was John Rafferty who was well known and unfortunately passed away this year. He was much better known than the current NDP candidate yet was still defeated by a large margin. This one won't even be close and I don't understand why it's still showing as too close to call. It includes Liberal-friendly Thunder Bay and the candidate is a medical doctor who works in a large regional hospital serving all of Northwestern Ontario. NDP numbers are down and the CPC isn't popular and you have to factor in the unpopularity of the Doug Ford government as well.
12/09/19 Laurence Putnam
Why is this still ‘Too Close To Call’? Given the state of the NDP campaign there's no way they're going to charge uphill in this battle to wrest this from the governing party caucus. Are you kidding me?
22/08/20 A.S.
The Lib nomination decision may look like what one'd expect from a third-place party than one headed for victory; but looks can be deceiving. Still, if one were to point to the hairline provincial loss in 2018 as proof of Liberal strength, the party's long been inherently "weaker" federally than provincially in Thunder Bay--and the fact that the federal riding extends into Rainy River Region reinforces said inherent weakness. The NDP, of course, is well-poised to covet given their recent history (Rafferty or no Rafferty); but in all honesty, who knows about the Cons as well--after all, the Alliance came rather close to winning here in 2000, and Rainy River is presently provincial Rickford country, and if the Scheer Prairie aura's got pretensions to cover *all* of the Central Time Zone, who knows. And for good fanciful measure, one might add that the adjoining US Congressional District is archetypally Obama/Trump and was one of only two GOP pickups in 2018...
30/07/20 Williams_Theo
Liberals have nominated Dr. Marcus Powlowski, an ER doctor at Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre with very little political experience. He beat out a two-time Thunder Bay city councillor, a small business owner, and 2015 Green Party candidate Christy Radbourne to get the nomination.
12/07/19 seasaw
John Rafferty passed away, he was a decent man and could've won, but he's gone now. This year, not only the NDP has no one in his caliber but they're also polling near their all time low, these two factors should ensure a Liberal victory
10/07/19 Kumar Patel
The Thunder Bay area leans more Liberal than other parts of Northern Ontario.
Under the current political climate, the best the NDP could do is have a strong second place showing.
13/04/19 JB
Rusnak is not seeking re-election, citing family commitments. Depending on the candidates, it's currently a toss up between the Liberals and the NDP. The NDP held this seat as recently from 2007-2015. Thunder Bay isn't Conservative territory.
08/04/19 Laurence Putnam
What's happened to John Rafferty? There was some kind of medical issue last year that kept him from running provincially but I don't know his current status. While he's lost more contests than he's won, you have got to admire his tenacity. I think he's the only candidate that would make this some sort of contest. Even with him, I suspect the Liberals would have the edge on it...without him, that's a guarantee.
03/03/19 Sam
Thunder Bay is an area which has been good for Federal and Provincial Liberals in the last few years, and although the NDP are able to put up a challenge here, it would take a big swing to oust Don Rusnak, a constituent-oriented MP. This isn't as safe as the other Thunder Bay riding, as was seen provincially, but it's hard to see the Liberals collapsing enough that they lose this.

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