Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:57:11

Constituency Profile


Bregman, Nathan

Gladstone, Gary

Kent, Peter

Malik, Waseem

Petrucci, Sara

Rachlis, Josh


Peter Kent

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



62.90 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Peter Kent ** 3191158.60%
Nancy Coldham 1839533.80%
Lorne Cherry 28145.20%
Josh Rachlis 6271.20%
Gene Balfour 5871.10%
Margaret Leigh Fairbairn 1570.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1600.35%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Gila Martow * 2888961.13%
Ezra Tanen 913419.33%
Sabi Ahsan 698514.78%
Rachel Dokhoian 10432.21%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6311.64%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
A bit of a surprise that Kent ran again. I think he will win again but suspect this is his last term.
18/10/19 R.O.
Peter Kent has been mp of this riding since 2008 and Thornhill seems to have become more of a conservative friendly riding in recent years. he’s likely to hold this seat .
27/09/19 Concerned
A walk for Peter Kent and the Tories here. Peter Kent is a household name, winning in 2008, 2011, 2015 and is active and present in all corners of the riding. In 2015 Thornhill had the highest vote share in Ontario, just a few points off from the 2011 result. The provincial conservative results a year ago were the 5th highest of all PC wins, and that was in a good year. Peter Kent has hundreds of signs, volunteers and a strong warchest, and this seat is staying solidly blue.
The Liberals are running a candidate with no prior name recognition and who is not putting up lawn signs on private property, just at intersections. It is unthinkable that the Liberal machine is targeting this seat or investing resources in the local Liberal campaign. Local Liberals in Thornhill would be wise to migrate to neighbouring ridings (Markham-Thornhill) to save their Liberal incumbents with much more Liberal-frendly ridings than Thornhill.
07/09/19 William
I wasn't sure if Peter Kent would run again, but until he chooses to retire, this riding should be safe Conservative barring any major collapse by that party.
It'll be more interesting once he retires to see if the Liberals can do anything to rebuild their brand in this riding.
The NDP is a non-factor here, basically think Crowfoot for the Liberals or Davenport for the CPC.
08/08/20 A.S.
Kent's initial 2006 run was a "major gamble" only insofar as the inner 905 was still viewed as monolithically Liberal at the time--though the fact that Thornhill *nearly* defied 2003's provincial 905-belt wipeout ought to have justified his wisdom. And its present rock solidity, much like that 2003 provincial near-miss, has more to do with demographics than Peter Kent per se--in fact, contrary to potential-70% claims, I suspect that Thornhill might be subtly maturing *out* of being top of the Conservative heap. After all, it wasn't even the best provincial Tory riding in York Region last year (okay, it was *second* best; but, still)
24/07/19 Laurence Putnam
It is remarkable how a seat that was once viewed as a major gamble on Peter Kent's part, when he first announced his candidacy, now appears to be a rock solid Conservative seat. I think Kent has a lot to do with that, and that it could perhaps be a more open field upon his retirement but this will be counted in the blue column once again in 2019.
23/03/19 Mizisuga
60% of the vote in an election where the Liberals swept the GTA, the only question is by how much Peter Kent will win this time. The Russian community dislikes Trudeau, and Scheer is pro-Israel which will pull over Jews on the fence.
20/03/19 Dr. Bear
Used to be interesting. Now it's boring and predictable. I'm not sure if it's an actual Peter Kent effect or not.
19/03/19 MF
Peter Kent easily held on last time and the Liberals only made a semi-serious effort in Thornhill. Conservative dominance among Orthodox Jews and Russians has turned this into a safe blue seat, both federally and provincially.
16/03/19 Sam
Peter Kent nearly got 60% last time, in a bad year for the Conservatives, in a riding that's the first out of Toronto. It would be stunning if he lost.
16/03/19 Craig
What happened in Thornhill in 2015 was a sign that this is now a safe Conservative seat. A blowout win while losing all the neighbouring ridings is a tell-tale. The provincial Liberals remained competitive through 2014, but reality set in 2018 and it became a blowout then too - this is now the safest sub/urban seat outside of Alberta for the CPC.
That can almost entirely be attributed to the large Jewish population here and the staunch pro-Israel stance (the calls by Scheer for Jerusalem as the real capital of Israel is a huge winner here), and pro-Palestine views by some in the Liberals and especially the NDP are toxic here. If anything, the margin should open up even wider for Peter Kent - I wouldn't be surprised if they topped 70% of the vote. That's despite the fact Thornhill is fairly affluent and educated...
22/02/19 Kumar Patel
Safe Conservative.
Peter Kent is running again and the two candidates running to be the Liberal candidate are not strong.

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