Crumplin, Bill
	Lalonde, Chanel
	Lefebvre, Paul
	Mairs, Beth
	Paterson, Sean
	Popescu, J. David
	St-Amant, Pierre
	Sylvestre, Charlene
Incumbent:
	Paul Lefebvre

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			91532 92048 46382 41736 857.51 km² 106.7/km²
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Paul Lefebvre	23534	47.40%
	Paul Loewenberg	13793	27.80%
	Fred Slade	10473	21.10%
	David Robinson	1509	3.00%
	Jean-Raymond Audet	134	0.30%
	Elizabeth Rowley	102	0.20%
	J. David Popescu	84	0.20%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		12881	28.35%
		22684	49.92%
		8172	17.98%
		1359	2.99%
Other		345	0.76%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Sudbury    (100% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Jamie West	17386	48.07%
	Troy Crowder	8405	23.24%
	Glenn Thibeault *	8108	22.42%
	David Robinson	1504	4.16%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		13296	39.35%
		4663	13.80%
		14274	42.24%
		1212	3.59%
Other		348	1.03%

	21/10/19	Tony Ducey 24.137.73.188
Regardless of what else happens across the country tomorrow I think the Liberals hold this seat.
	07/10/19	NJam101 216.104.106.135
Definite Liberal victory for Paul Lefebvre. There is no real challenger this time. I wouldn't be surprised to see Lefebvre get more than 50% of the votes this time. It's Sudbury and the city has always been well treated financially by Liberals both federally and provincially.
	06/09/19	aceventura 216.167.248.2
While the NDP has finally nominated a decent candidate here (Beth Mairs) as opposed to bumbling Lowenberg, Paul Lefebvre is simply too well liked and involved in both the community and parliament to be unseated. He's a successful, scandal-free, and charitable lawyer/businessman/millionaire, and he has broad support across demographics. Conservatives have no chance, and it would take a Jack Layton-worthy orange wave for the NDP to take it. Liberal hold.
	22/08/20	A.S. 99.225.32.21
Divine intervention or not, the Cons at the very least overtaking the NDP for 2nd shouldn't be altogether ruled out, particularly since less than 7 points divided the two parties in 2015 despite the Dippers having far more of a machine and being far more favoured. Though provincial Dipper incumbency and Ford backlash could significantly blunt that likelihood--for now, it'd appear that Sudbury's long federal-Lib stronghold tradition's due to endure.
	16/07/19	Laurence Putnam 96.53.49.70
I agree with previous posters - the only other viable option here is the NDP, and they would need to have a VERY good year to take this. They are not going to have a very good year. The Conservatives would require divine intervention.
	21/06/19	seasaw 99.225.244.232
With an irrelevant Concervative Party, and a weak NDP, this riding should stay Liberal.
	15/06/19	Sam 86.139.31.83
Given the other projections, TCTC is wildly out of step. As has been said, the other parties are too far behind. Whilst no doubt the local branches may be pushing hard here, realistically this would be a Liberal hold - it's a white collar, civil servant town, fully urban, and richer than other cities like Timmins. For those reasons and the reasons outlined by Craig and myself in my initial projection, I think TCTC is way too cautious, and that a Liberal projection is the right one.
	29/05/19	Craig 24.213.108.184
I'd give the Liberals the advantage here. Unlike other Northern Ontario ridings, Sudbury is 100% urban and a bit more receptive to national trends. It is also somewhat more white-collar and has a large number of government employees. Those voters would be more likely to stick to the Liberals, although they can sometimes swing to the NDP. Paul Lefebvre may not be a superstar candidate and the LPC does have SNC-Lavalin weighing them down, but he should be fine especially with the relative weakness of the national NDP. The Conservatives shouldn't be a factor here especially since their best issues in the north (gun issues) wouldn't be a big factor in this urban riding, while free market policies aren't exactly popular here.
	08/03/19	Sam 86.28.79.130
The Liberals won a surprisingly large victory here last time and although Ontario is fertile for the NDP, the Liberals aren't shedding enough votes to make this at risk. Paul Lefebvre's incumbency may not help them much, but the Liberals are likely to come up the middle again. Things could however change.