Election Prediction Project

Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:57:03

Constituency Profile


Aman, Raheem

Duncan, Eric

Megill, Heather

Schmitz, Kelsey Catherine

Trimm, Sabile


Guy Lauzon

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2666.41 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Guy Lauzon ** 2709151.10%
Bernadette Clement 2045238.50%
Patrick Burger 43328.20%
Elaine Kennedy 11912.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1510.32%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jim Mcdonell * 2678061.51%
Marc Benoit 941621.63%
Heather Megill 538612.37%
Elaine Kennedy 15963.67%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6021.51%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
This riding has been Conservative since 2004. They have a new candidate there this year. I think they'll keep the seat blue though.
30/09/19 R.O.
No incumbent this year as Guy Lauzon retired , nearby riding of Leeds Grenville also recently vacant and it stayed conservative in the by election. If would seem likely this one also stays conservative with Eric Duncan as there new candidate.
15/08/20 A.S.
Someday, somebody should stage a takeback--after all, even if Guy Lauzon held his majority last time, it was w/only 12.5% headway over his Lib opponent, so there's still the ghost of a strong non-Con base (and the Libs held Cornwall proper, to boot). Hey, with it being an open seat and all, maybe now's the time...
22/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Miles Lunn sums it up nicely; SDSG is as close to a fortress as the Tories can ever hope to achieve in Ontario.
08/04/19 Sam
Any Ontario riding that the Conservatives got a majority of the votes last time, they will win this time. Eric Duncan will replace Guy Lauzon.
16/03/19 Craig
It's amazing how quickly things change. A quarter century ago, this was one of the safest Liberal seats in Canada. Now, despite being somewhat bilingual (especially in the eastern part), it's one of the safest Conservative seats east of Manitoba, and one of the top 5 safest in Ontario.
Even in Cornwall (largely working class, more like Southwestern than Eastern Ontario) it has been trending conservative, and the rural areas routinely give them 70% or more of the vote these days in both federal and provincial elections. Guy Lauzon is very safe. The only question is...how high can they go?
24/02/19 M. Lunn
This was once a solid Liberal riding, but today is one of the safest Tory ridings in Ontario. One of only five where they got over 50% in 2015 and one of only 6 federally in 2011 and 5 provincially in 2018 where they got over 60%. So unless the Tories get completely shut out of Ontario, they will hold this one.

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