Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:56:47

Constituency Profile


D'Angelo, Tony

Dowdall, Terry

Jackson, Sherri

Kenney, Lorne

Matthews, Ilona

Sommer, Richard


Kellie Leitch

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1863.34 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kellie Leitch ** 3061246.60%
Mike MacEachern 2535238.60%
David Matthews 63329.60%
JoAnne Fleming 29234.40%
Len Noordegraaf 5280.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 880715.94%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jim Wilson * 3409455.93%
David Matthews 1344422.05%
Dan Hambly 878014.4%
Jesseca Perry 41926.88%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)


20/10/19 Tony Ducey
This riding has had its share of ? MP's in the past. This yr. there is no incumbent but I think the CPC hold the seat.
02/10/19 R.O.
Kellie Leitch decided to not run again although cpc quickly nominated a new candidate Terry Dowdall who had been mayor of Essa township a small municipality in the riding. The riding likely stay conservative although interesting to see how the green’s do in these ridings.
08/08/20 A.S.
Leitch's "toxicity" is no worse than Doug Ford's was last year; and it didn't stop Jim Wilson last year, nor would Jim Wilson's subsequent ejection from caucus stop Leitch's successor this year. And sure, "Leitchism" *could* logically deflect off into PPC support--though I don't know whether their running a former Libertarian candidate is the way to do it...
29/05/19 Craig
Simcoe-Grey has long been a Conservative seat as long as the right was united. It's unclear how Kellie Leitch's departure will play though - her anti-immigration views would likely have fans here especially as you move south from Highway 26. However, there are many retirees from the GTA in the resort towns who would likely find it too toxic.
Regardless, Terry Dowdall appears to be a better fit overall, which should get the Conservatives back up over 50% (and closer to what Jim Wilson got in 2018). The national Liberal campaign is not well-liked here especially with SNC-Lavalin. Should be a Conservative hold no matter what.
12/04/19 Sam
I disagree that Kellie Leitch was unpopular here, but otherwise I agree with @M. Lunn's analysis. This has become a blue area and it should stay blue.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
This is a pretty safe Conservative riding and with Kellie Leitch not running again (she was probably too toxic for Collingwood, Blue Mountains, and Wasaga Beach where you have a lot of well to do GTA transplants) should make this even more solidly Tory.

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