Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:56:35

Constituency Profile


Abara, Stephen

Alvi, Farhan

Clarke, Kevin

Holding, Kathleen Marie

Jani, Jigna

McKay, John

McMahon, Tara

Spencer, Michelle

Stefanis, Gus

Thuraisingham, Quintus


John McKay

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



25.96 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

John McKay ** 2516760.00%
Chuck Konkel 1110826.50%
Laura Casselman 472011.30%
Kathleen Holding 6061.40%
Kevin Clarke 1750.40%
Paul Coulbeck 1410.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2070.60%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (88.24% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Scarborough Centre
   (11.76% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Mitzie Hunter * 1197233.34%
Roshan Nallaratnam 1189833.14%
Tom Packwood 991727.62%
Linda Rice 8782.45%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6141.91%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Much like Judy Sgro I was surprised John Mckay ran again. That'll be only surprise here tomorrow, I think Mckay holds this seat.
30/09/19 R.O.
John Mckay has been an mp for a long time and will likely hold the riding , although was surprised he decided to run again.
17/08/20 MF
Yeah, Scarborough-Guildwood isn't the 'St. Paul's of Scarborough'; demographically it's not unusual among the Scarborough ridings at all. The squeak-through victories of John McKay in '11 and Mitzie Hunter in '18 had nothing to do with affluence or university degrees. Either way, with Bloc Scarberia re-asserting itself in 2015, McKay should have no problem holding on.
05/08/20 A.S.
'Enormous Liberal advantage on the lakeshore?' Actually, the *real* heart of Liberal support is among the Islamic electorate around Markham & Lawrence (it's what saved McKay in '11)--in the past, the south-of-Kingston-Rd affluent zones would have been cited (albeit latterly in vain) on behalf of *Conservative* viability, and it's only in 2018 provincially that the Lib-favourable balance can be unreservedly said to have tipped southward. And that Mitzie Hunter held on provincially has a good deal to do with Mitzie Hunter rather than with 'inherent' Liberal strength, so to paint Scarborough-Guildwood as some kind of St. Paul's/Quadra-esque too-rich/educated-hence-Liberal-stronghold circumstance is off base. And even the NDP isn't that inherently 'hated' here, as the less-than-6-points separating the 3 parties in 2018 proves (and that was with a ghostly Dipper campaign in Guildwood; that is, had they *tried*, they could even have *won*). But for now, that's all squabbling beneath a likely McKay rubber stamp. Just don't blow the rubber stamp out of proportion.
26/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Tough to add to anything that's already been said. If a more populist conservative like Doug Ford can't win the riding provincially, it would seem to be a big stretch to assume that Andrew Scheer would.
22/07/19 seasaw
@Craig, The Liberals did not win big here in 2011 or 2018, in 2011 they won by about 400 votes and in 2018, they only won by 84, and that's due to Mitzi Hunter spreading allegedly false info about the PC, candidate. You also keep referring to educated voters being a strong constituency of the Liberals, why? Because they did well the last time? Those of us with post graduate degrees are the hardest ones to identify and most of us don't always support one party, we look at the issues, platforms and go by that and if not impressed with any, go for the least of all evils. Getting back to this riding in this election, it's going to be a Liberal hold. In order for the Tories to win here, John has to retire plus they have to be leading by 20 points, neither one isn't likely.
12/06/19 Craig
This is definitely the safest of the Scarborough ridings for the Liberals and possibly the safest riding in Ontario outside of Ottawa for them. The areas along and especially south of Kingston Road are quite affluent and represent what would likely be bedrock Liberal support - they won big there even in 2011 and 2018, and should win by enormous margins there this time. Doug Ford is hated there and Scheer won't do any better, while the NDP are also hated there (too educated for the Tories, too affluent for the NDP).
It's true the Conservatives and NDP might both find pockets of support north of Lawrence Avenue where it is more working class. However, one of them would need to consolidate that vote and win big there to overcome the enormous Liberal advantage on the lakeshore. Not likely going to happen - there will likely be more than enough Liberal support to keep this safely in the red column.
10/06/19 seasaw
Easy Liberal hold. Don't embarrass yourself by predicting this for someone else.
06/04/19 Legolas
With the Liberals winning this seat by a big margin in 2015 and holding it provincially in 2018, it shows that this is the type of seat where they shouldn't have a problem holding their vote. May even be their biggest win in Toronto next election.
06/04/19 Sam
This is one of the best ridings for the Liberals and will go Liberal again, especially with a fantastic MP in John McKay.
17/02/19 JW
For no specific discernible reason, Scarborough Guildwood has been the second most reliably Liberal seat in Ontario in recent history. Electing a Liberal MP in the 2011 collapse and a Liberal MPP in the most recent provincial election, it has consistently elected Liberal federal and provincial members since 2003. The only other riding in Ontario that can claim such consistency is Ottawa Vanier.

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