Election Prediction Project

Sault Ste. Marie
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:56:26

Constituency Profile


McCleary, Sara

McLean, Geo

Sheehan, Terry

Spina, Sonny

Zuccato, Amy


Terry Sheehan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



5607.03 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Terry Sheehan 1958244.80%
Bryan Hayes ** 1361531.10%
Skip Morrison 954321.80%
Kara Flannigan 9342.10%
Mike Taffarel 830.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1380.34%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Sault Ste. Marie
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Ross Romano * 1349842.03%
Michele Mccleave-Kennedy 1308440.74%
Jaclynne Hamel 31999.96%
Kara Flannigan 10443.25%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 1150.38%

19/10/19 NJam101
I agree that it will be close among the three main candidates. I don't see a CPC victory though. I still think that Sheehan will just barely win but Sara McCleary certainly has the potential to win given the Sault's voting history.
16/10/19 Physastr Master
I think the last set of prediction changes were very good ones, but this is the one of two exceptions. 338 currently has this as a reasonably close 3-way race, with the NDP in 3rd but climbing, and the Liberals in 1st but falling. If the most positive recent polls for the NDP turn out to be true, then the NDP will win this on e-day, or they could split it and hand it to the conservatives if the split is just right. I haven't really seen any convincing arguments on this page as to why the Liberal candidate *here* is special and can outperform their party, so it looks like they are on thin ice. Small industry towns aren't the strong suit of the liberals, so I wouldn't be surprised if they fare *worse* here than elsewhere in Ontario relative to popular vote swing.
14/10/19 sooguy84
An interesting riding with all decent candidates that could go any of three ways. If Singh's new coattails are long he will carry Sarah over the line. If they are short he will help Sonny by splitting the vote. If they fizzle, Terry will take it.
08/10/19 CJR
Exactly the point. When the NDP does better they will drain votes from the Liberal candidate. Terry Sheehan is riding on the coat tails of a Liberal leader who looks worse with each passing day. This will certainly be a tight race, but every vote McCleary gets will come from Sheehan. The word around town is that he is getting very nervous.
07/10/19 NJam101
Definite Liberal victory Terry Sheehan. I don't see how Sonny Spina has a chance. The Doug Ford Ontario PCs are dragging down CPC support and MPP Ross Romano hasn't exactly been popular lately. The NDP candidate Sara McCleary is fairly impressive but this is not an election where the NDP will pick up seats or even support compared to 2015. I don't know why this is too close to call. Definite Liberal victory.
18/09/19 CJR
There has been a long lasting change in voting in this riding. In 2011 Bryan Hayes won for the CPC after ten years of steady CPC gains. In the 2015 election Terry Sheehan won, but mostly at the expense of the NDP. This is a tight race between the Leberals and CPC. Any recovery in the NDP numbers, or gains for the Greens, will certainly come at the expense of the Liberals. Sonny Spina is a well known figure in the community with positive exposure through the United Way and through being the face of community policing. He has been working the ground game diligently for months and will be well prepared to get out the CPC vote, which tends to be more efficient. The Ontario Conservatives have won the seat twice in a row and have delivered a new Ferrichrome plant that will come with 1800 construction, and 500 permanent jobs. Look for this to be a tight race with the CPC coming out with the win.
18/09/19 R.O.
Historically very much a swing riding , been ndp , cpc and liberal in recent elections. Terry Sheehan could get back in but it could flip to another party if say the conservatives do better than expected up north , it depends how the election plays out.
22/08/20 A.S.
In the abstract, a 3-way tossup assessment makes perfect sense; but more often than not the races have tended to shake out as "NDP vs non-NDP" white-collar-east/blue-collar-west affairs with either the Libs or the Cons serving the primary non-NDP role, and one of either falling between the cracks. 2015 was different in a significant way: not only did it become more of an urban/rural Lib-Con divide (now that the federal Soo includes rural hinterland), it was the first time since the 1960s that the NDP saw itself in third, and a fairly distant "Mulcair third" at that. Under Jagmeet there's an excellent chance of third again--though with the stink of Ford and the mixed provincial performance of Ross Romano hampering CPC, they could just as well float back into 2nd by default. Result is that right now Sheehan's looking more like a lower-key David Orazietti in terms of Liberal safety in the Soo--could change, particularly if Sooers find the Justin Libs too "elite" for their liking; unless Fordlash = "hey, parking with the elites ain't bad, after all"...
29/05/19 Craig
Sault Ste. Marie should definitely be the most interesting race in Northern Ontario. In fact, this will very likely be a 3-way race as each party has their strengths and weaknesses in what is a largely working-class, mostly but not entirely urban riding.
Liberals: They have the incumbent in Terry Sheehan, although he hasn't done much to differentiate from Trudeau. However, they have SNC-Lavalin weighing them down, which could also hurt badly with indigenous voters.
NDP: There is a solid NDP history in Sault Ste. Marie, especially with the union movement, and they came close in 2018. However, their presence may have hit a plateau as they have struggled nationally, while Jagmeet Singh is definitely not an asset here.
Conservatives: They have plenty of strength in the outlying areas of the riding, and the working-class nature may help them out on issues like immigration and gun rights. That said, they do have a ceiling in the low 40s so they would need some vote splitting.
All things considered, a 3-way tossup.
12/04/19 Sam
I still believe that this riding should favour the Liberals. However, with the increase in the likelihood of a Conservative government since my prediction, this is better off in the Too Close To Call column, as I think they should take this in a majority situation. The Liberals aren't strong enough that they don't need to worry about this. Since my previous prediction, the Conservatives have nominated Sonny Spina, who seems a good candidate with no real detractors.
03/03/19 Sam
This riding was close between the Conservatives and NDP provincially, as it was until 2015 when Terry Sheehan won it. Now, it looks to be a straight fight between the Liberals and Conservatives, with the Liberals having the edge. Terry Sheehan is a good fit so it will take a lot to reverse the huge Liberal gain last time.

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